Earth's Temperature Rise Exceeds Safe Threshold

The increase in global average temperature in the last year reached 1.61 degrees Celsius, exceeding the safe threshold.

KOMPAS/FERGANATA INDRA RIATMOKO

A satay seller protects his head with cloth during hot weather in the Kraton District, Yogyakarta, on Saturday (4/5/2024). The temperature in Yogyakarta during the daytime in recent days has been around 32 degrees Celsius.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS - April 2024 marks the 11th consecutive month to break the record for the highest temperature. With this record, the increase in average global temperature in the past year has reached 1.61 degrees Celsius warmer than the period of 1850-1900.

The record high temperature in April 2024 was reported by the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service on Wednesday (8/5/2024). The Copernicus program is the world's largest climate data provider. They use billions of measurements from satellites, ships, airplanes, and weather stations around the world for monthly and seasonal forecasts.

According to Copernicus data, the global temperature in April 2024 was 15.03 degrees Celsius, 0.67 degrees Celsius above the average surface air temperature in April 1991-2020. With this record, April 2024 became the eleventh consecutive hottest month on record.

ERA5-LAYANAN PERUBAHAN IKLIM COPERNICUS/ECMWF.

Surface air temperature anomalies in April 2024 relative to the April average for the 1991-2020 period.

The temperature this April was also 0.14 degrees Celsius hotter than the previous record in April 2016. Compared to the historical average, the temperature in April 2024 was 1.58 degrees Celsius hotter.

Data analysis from the Copernius Program also shows that the global average temperature over the past 12 months (May 2023-April 2024) is the highest on record, with a 0.73 degrees Celsius increase compared to the average from 1991-2020 and a 1.61 degrees Celsius increase compared to the average temperature prior to the Industrial Revolution from 1850-1900.

Although this temperature increase is not yet permanent, according to the Paris Climate Agreement 2015, countries are asked to mitigate so that the temperature increase does not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, in order to prevent climate disasters. The increase in temperature above this threshold, according to policymakers and scientists, can threaten life on Earth.

Also read: Extreme Rain on a Boiling Earth

"Meanwhile, temperature variations related to natural cycles such as El Nino come and go, but the extra energy trapped in the ocean and atmosphere due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases will continue to drive global temperatures towards new records," said Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo in a statement.

C3S/ECMWF

The monthly global surface air temperature anomaly (°C) relative to the years 1850-1900 from January 1940 to April 2024 is plotted as a time series for each year. The year 2024 is indicated by a thick yellow line, 2023 by a thick red line, and other years by thin lines colored according to the decade, from blue (1940s) to brick red (2020s).

The highest temperatures above average occur in Eastern Europe, while outside of Europe, the highest temperatures above average occur in Northern and Northeastern North America, Greenland, Eastern Asia, Northwest Middle East, parts of South America, and most of Africa.

An analysis of 115 observation stations from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) also shows that the average air temperature in April 2024 in Indonesia was the hottest during the observation period of 1981, or 43 years. According to this data, the average air temperature in Indonesia in April 2024 reached 27.74 degrees Celsius. The normal climatological air temperature for April 1991-2020 in Indonesia is 26.85 degrees Celsius.

Based on the data, the average air temperature anomaly in April 2024 shows a positive anomaly with a value of 0.89 degrees Celsius. The air temperature anomaly in Indonesia in April 2024 is the highest value throughout the observation period since 1981.

Ocean air temperatures generally remain at very high levels.

The average air temperature at each observation station in April 2024 also showed a positive anomaly value or higher than its climatological average. The maximum anomaly was recorded at the Gusti Syamsir Alam Meteorological Station in Kotabaru Regency, reaching 2.2 degrees Celsius hotter. The minimum anomaly was recorded at the Karel Sadsuitubun Meteorological Station in Southeast Maluku, reaching minus 0.5 degrees Celsius.

BMKG

Monthly temperature anomalies in Indonesia compared to its climatological average have been observed. The temperature in April 2024 in Indonesia was recorded to be 0.89 degrees Celsius hotter than its climatological average, making it the highest anomaly throughout the observation period since 1981.

Also read: Impact of Global Warming

Ocean temperature

According to data from the Copernicus Program, El Nino in the eastern equatorial Pacific continues to weaken towards a neutral condition, but sea surface temperatures remain generally very high.

The global average sea surface temperature in April 2024 at 60 degrees Latitude South-60 degrees Latitude North reached 21.04 degrees Celsius. This temperature record is now the thirteenth consecutive month with sea surface temperature being the hottest in history.

ERA5-LAYANAN PERUBAHAN IKLIM COPERNICUS/ECMWF.

The daily average sea surface temperature (°C) in the global extratropical oceans (60°S-60°N) in 2023 (orange) and 2024 (dark red). The other years between 1979 and 2022 are shown with gray lines. The daily average for the reference period of 1991-2020 is indicated by a dashed gray line.

The rising surface and ocean temperatures also have an impact on ice shrinkage. The extent of Arctic sea ice is about 2 percent below the average. Meanwhile, the extent of Antarctic sea ice is 9 percent below average, the 10th lowest in satellite data records in April, continuing a large negative anomaly pattern that has often occurred since 2017.

Also read: There is increasing hot weather, but there is still potential for rain