President Joko Widodo (right) greeted Greater Indonesian Movement (Gerindra) Party chair Prabowo Subianto at the Merdeka Palace in Jakarta on Thursday (17/11/2016). During Prabowo’s visit, he discussed the latest updates on the nation’s security with the President.
The dynamics of political stability, security, law enforcement and people’s welfare have been significant factors in the last six months in people’s considerations of leadership figures, seen as having the ability to solve the nation’s various problems.
Among various figures, President Joko Widodo’s image remains unshaken. Nevertheless, at the same time, Prabowo Subianto’s popularity is increasing. Both names dominate public discourse, leaving other political figures in their wake. The results of periodical surveys conducted by Kompas Research and Development division (Litbang Kompas) between January 2015 and April 2017 show the domineering power both figures hold in the public’s mind.
This power is linked closely to their political contest during the 2014 Presidential Election. The election result saw Jokowi secure 53.2 percent of the vote, a 6.3 percent margin over Prabowo, however, public support for both Jokowi and Prabowo has remained high.
In the past two years, the results of various public opinion surveys show that the maps of both figures’ electability are becoming increasingly dynamic. In the January 2015 survey, for instance, together they claimed a combined 56 percent of the vote. Jokowi was more dominant with 42.5 percent, while Prabowo secured 13.7 percent of the vote. The remaining 44 percent comprised of other figures.
As time has gone by, the two figures’ electability has become more competitive. Lately, both Jokowi and Prabowo have enjoyed surges in support. On the other hand, the domination of these two figures has meant the electability others are shrinking. In the April 2017 survey, for instance, 41.6 respondents said that they would vote for Jokowi if a general election were to be held at the time. This represented an increase of around four percent compared to the October 2016 survey. On the other hand, Prabowo was chosen by 22.1 percent of respondents, a 5-percent increase from the survey in the previous period.
Combined, Jokowi and Prabowo control 63.7 percent of the vote, almost two-thirds of respondents. This share is visibly increasing as time goes by, thereby reducing the chances of alternative figures emerging to take over the public discourse. In the latest survey, only 12.4 percent of respondents chose figures other than Jokowi or Prabowo. These other figures include notable regional leaders such as Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, Ridwan Kamil, Tri Rismaharini, Jakarta governor-elect Anies Baswedan, among other figures – mostly politicians, military leaders and state ministers. Nevertheless, each of them only enjoys an electability rating of far below 2 percent.
Polarization of support
Digging deeper, the trend of increasing public support for Jokowi and Prabowo is spread evenly among the majority of provinces. In Jakarta, Jokowi is the domineering figure. His electability rating has steadily increased since April 2015 and currently sits at 52 percent. This is a higher proportion compared to past periods. Support for Prabowo in Jakarta has also increased since April 2016 and currently sits at 25 percent.
In regions Jokowi won during the 2014 Election, comprising portions of Sumatra (North Sumatra, Riau Islands, Bengkulu), portions of Java (Central Java, East Java, Yogyakarta), Sulawesi (South Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, Southwest Sulawesi and Central Sulawesi), Kalimantan, East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku and Papua, support for Jokowi has steadily increased in the past two years. Even in several regions Prabowo won in 2014, such as Aceh, West Sumatra, South Sumatra, West Java and Banten, Jokowi’s electability rating has tended to increase.
Prabowo is experiencing similar surges. His electability is rising among respondents in regions he both won and lost in the last election. His electability rating has increased in several regions Jokowi won in 2014, including in North Sumatra, several other Sumatran provinces, portions of Kalimantan and Sulawesi. Under such conditions, a competitive polarization of support between the two figures is taking place in regions known as their respective supporter bases.
The increasingly polarized support for Jokowi and Prabowo can be understood as a sign their respective supporters, whose interests differ, are pinning their hopes on the two figures. An indication that this is taking place can be observed from the reasons each set of supporters give for backing the respective figures. For the majority of Jokowi’s voters, his performance so far in office is the main reason they choose to continue their support for him. Over 34.5 percent of Jokowi’s voters agree that, in conducting his duties, President Jokowi is capable of achieving significant results and resolving existing problems.
Other than his work performance, Jokowi’s personality has huge appeal among his supporters. His casual and unassuming character, including his approachability and partisanship to common people, was cited by 19 percent of voters. Other personal traits, such as honesty, modesty and assertiveness are also commonly cited by his voters.
However, for respondents who support Prabowo, these exacts traits are seen as Jokowi’s weakness. Some 34.7 percent of Prabowo’s voters said that Jokowi is not firm enough. These voters also believe Jokowi has yet to show adequate results. Based on such assessments, these voters say that their preference for Prabowo is strengthening as he is seen to be a firm and capable leader for the nation.
On the other hand, support expressed by respondents toward Prabowo contrasts with their assessment of Jokowi’s performance. In this case, the survey result indicates that a lower assessment for Jokowi’s work performance corresponds with a higher electability rating for Prabowo. For instance, decreasing public appreciation of Jokowi’s performance in the July 2015 and October 2015 surveys were accompanied by stronger electability for Prabowo. Similar conditions occur when public assessment on Jokowi’s performance in resolving political, security, economic and social welfare issues decreases. Such an opposing relation reaffirms the idea that the coming stages in the popularity contest between Jokowi and Prabowo will be increasingly competitive.
