Measuring the Directions of Shifting Voters
A banner of political parties that are participating in the general election is displayed in front of the Central Java KPU building in Semarang city, Tuesday (8/4/2014). As many as 185 million Indonesian citizens voted in the 2014 general elections.
With some two years left before the 2019 Elections, political parties must begin to organize themselves for the five-yearly contestation. Amid the tendency of voters shifting away from constituencies, political parties have a homework of improving its public image.
This shift of voters can be seen in the four elections held in the Reform era. Political parties seemingly took turns in winning elections and securing the most number of seats at the House of Representatives. In these four elections, the victor has always been one of three major political parties. As if in a cycle, no political party outside of these three have ever won the five-yearly political contestation.
In the 1999 election, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) secured 33.7 percent of the votes and won the election. Five years later, in 2004, Golkar won the legislative election by securing 21.6 percent of the votes. During the New Order regime, Golkar had been the dominant political power in every election. In the 2009 election, the Democratic Party emerged as the victor with 20.4 percent of votes. Finally, in the 2014 election, PDIP once again emerged victorious with 18.9 percent of votes.
What can we read from this trend of political victories in these four elections? First, major parties with track records of gaining a huge amount of votes are all on track to win the 2019 election. This is related to the indications of the political machines of major parties and the relatively slow shift of voters to mid-level and minor parties.
Second, the opportunity of shifting positions between major parties is still wide open – at least between the two currently most popular political parties, namely the PDIP and the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).
With some two years left before the 2019 elections, there is still enough time left for any of these major parties to eventually emerge as the winner of the election.
A Kompas survey result in late April showed that major parties are still dominating voters’ choice. However, the potential of shifting of voters (volatility) between political parties still exists. The result of the periodical Kompas survey is an indicator to measure the potential shifting of voters.
Concentration of votes
The periodical surveys between January 2015 and April 2017 showed a tendency of a concentration of votes between three major parties. On average, the electability rating of these three political parties dominates more than half of eligible votes, even if their domination slightly decreased in the latest survey (on April 2017).
Compared to the four previous elections, there are increasing political party concentration ratio. Up to the 2014 election, votes had always been concentrated in four major political parties. Meanwhile, the latest survey showed that the concentration of votes between three political parties have already dominated more than half of votes.
These three political parties are PDIP, Gerindra and Golkar. These three, in total, manage to dominate more than half of the survey respondents’ support. Between the surveys, especially between the first survey in January 2015 and the latest survey in April 2017, the electability of the PDIP decreased by 8.4 percent. Meanwhile, Gerindra’s electability increased by 5.3 percent. Golkar’s electability, on the other hand, tends to stagnate.
If the election was to be held at the time of the survey, these three political parties will determine the formation of axes of political powers. The public memory understands the positions of the three political parties. PDIP and Gerindra are seen as supporters of the current administration and Gerindra stands outside the government.
Gerindra’s position outside the government more or less gives the political party an electoral incentive. This is reaffirmed with the result of the survey regarding the popularity of presidential candidates for the 2019 election. Apart from incumbent President Joko Widodo, Gerindra chairman Prabowo Subianto is still the strongest challenger for the 2019 Presidential Election. Prabowo is still a political icon for Gerindra.
Even though it has entered the cooling-off period, political parties’ flags and legislative member candidates ’campaign paraphernalia are still found in many places, such as in the area of Matraman, Jakarta, Sunday (6/4/2014). Law enforcers should be firm in dealing with such violations.
Figure and loyalty
The strength of political parties’ elites seems to reaffirm the notion that political parties are still dependent on the power of the elites. Richard Gunther and Larry Diamond (2003) referred to this phenomenon as “elites based on political parties”, where the organizational structures of political parties are not as strong as the figure of their main elites. The victory of the Democratic Party in 2009 was inseparable from the figure of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who was the president at the time.
The presence of such political figures influences shifts and changes. Results of Kompas surveys showed that all three political parties with the highest electability in the survey still have the opportunity to switch places despite there are patterns of groups of political parties with relatively consistent voters.
The first pattern is the group of political parties of which the total electability are more than half of respondents’ support. As explained above, included in this group are PDIP, Gerindra and Golkar.
The second pattern is the group of mid-level political parties comprising the National Awakening Party (PKB), the Democratic Party, the United Development Party (PPP), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Nasdem party, the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) and the Crescent Star Party (PBB). In total, these eight political parties dominate some 17.4 percent of respondents’ support in the eight Kompas surveys.
The third pattern is the group of new political parties. In our surveys, respondents only cited two parties, namely the United Indonesian Party (Perindo) and the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI). Voters attracted to these two newcomers are 1.9 percent in total.
The consistent presence of another pattern will enable the shifting votes between these three groups of parties. This fourth pattern is that there is a group of voters who have yet to make their choice for the election. In our periodical surveys, there is an average of 31.2 percent of undecided voters.
This shift of voters, called the phenomenon of volatility, is explained by Dye and Ziegler (1983) as the phenomenon of shifting allegiance of voters from one party to another, from one election to another.
Regarding loyalty, there are diverse levels of voters’ loyalty in every political party. Political parties based on ideological, emotional and traditional bonds have relatively more loyal voters compared to other parties. No wonder, then, that parties like PDIP and PKB have high levels of voters’ loyalty.
Some 81.3 percent of PDIP voters say that they will still choose the party in the upcoming election. The same phenomenon occurred in PKB, with 76.7 percent of its voters remaining loyal to the party. Meanwhile, PKS, Golkar and Gerindra loyal voters are between 60 percent and 70 percent.
Apart from the challenge of maintaining voters’ loyalty ahead of the 2019 political contestation, political parties are also faced with a difficult homework. Their public image as institutions of democracy has been eroded. Only 45.7 percent of respondents perceive political parties as good.
Public perception of political parties as closely linked to corruption is an issue that must be addressed, in order to reaffirm the parties’ position as institutions of the public and not just the elite. Let’s just wait and see.
(LITBANG KOMPAS)
