Long Road to the Race
The race for the 2019 elections has begun. The political party machine’s engine has been warmed up, the war of opinions has spread, mapping strengths and exploring partnerships have started coloring the daily news.It is still a long ways off, but many parties have not the patience to wait.
The elite’s move to establish cross-strength political communication marks the long road to the race. Since the General Election Law was issued and the General Elections Commission (KPU) commenced its stages of implementation, their varied maneuvers have emerged and become political messages. There are many roads to power.
Infinite games
From the ideal perspective, the second to the fourth years of a term constitutes the best period to accelerate performance, both for the government and the House of Representatives (DPR), especially in applying the five-year mandate of power. It is in the fifth year that the public will be bombarded from all sides seeking to win their support. In reality, the DPR in the 2014-2019 DPR period has passed about 15 bills (Kompas, 1/8/2017) up to its third year of term.
There has been no significant improvement; even the House’s legislation productivity is declining. The 2009-2014 DPR approved 40 bills in the corresponding period. From January to the end of July this year, the House and the government approved only four of the 50 bills listed in the national legislation program.
Only three cumulative bills have been enacted. Of the very few laws that were passed, one has been submitted to the Constitutional Court for judicial review.
Similarly in the executive branch, the Jokowi-JK working Cabinet has a lot to do: sluggish economic growth, the salt crisis, the rice pricing problem, state debts, the threats of radicalism and terror, the obvious danger of drugs, as well as other problems to tackle. Instead, politicians and lawmakers are acting as though they are in the midst of the 2019 race.
Borrowing a term popularized by James P Carse in Finite and Infinite Games (1987), the general elections is a finite game. As finite players, politicians usually become focused on scrambling for the "trophy" during their five-years tint in power, even though they frequently forget about who has mandated that power. The race to the general elections, on the other hand, has become an infinite game. Even though the general elections are finished, the long, interest-riddled race colors the political situation with uncertainty.
For example, the polarization of support in the 2014 presidential contest can still be felt today – not only among the political elite, but also in the community through a variety of public communication channels, so that the race is expanded, interconnecting endlessly.
Relational dialectics
In the communication assessment, our political phenomenon presents a relational dialectics. Leslie Baxter and Barbara Montgomery in their book, Relating: Dialogues and Dialectics (1996), define relational dialectics as a situation of sustainable tension among contradictory impulses.
Politics is full of hustle and bustle, both in the mass and social medias. Political relations are frequently heating up, even to boiling point as seen in the 2016Jakarta gubernatorial elections. The map of party coalitions, both within and without the ruling power, is very fluid and frequently changes in line with developing political dynamics, such as in the deliberation of the general elections bill.
On paper, Jokowi has the support of 69.2 percent of House seats and 68.84 percent of the popular vote from the seven parties that support the government. However, in reality, as seen in the deliberation of the general election bill, the ruling coalition’s National Mandate Party (PAN) crossed to the other side and walked out of the plenary session along with Gerindra, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and the Democratic Party.
This reminds us that the PKS\'s stance was different from that of the other coalition parties on the issue of fuel price hikes and the options of the Century Special Committee in the second presidential term of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY).
We also have to position a meeting that took place between SBY and Prabowo Subianto in Cikeas (Thursday, 27/7/2017) in the above mentioned relational dialectics. It is too premature to say whether they will collaborate in 2019. The public also does not know if the newly established Perindo party, led by government critic Hary Tanoesoedibjo, might suddenly be open
In politics, the approach to power relations is not monologic, nor is it dualistic. In a monologic approach, the two parts of a contradiction are exclusive: When you move to one of the polar extremes, you leave the other. The dualistic approach sees the two contradictory parts as inseparable, yet unrelated.
In our political practice, the dialectic approach is frequently taken: a viewpoint that matches each other in every existing contradiction.Even though a contradiction may involve two different political alliances, the situation can expand beyond the exclusivity of two political poles. On viewing the phenomenon of relational dialectics, Russian philosopher Mikhail Bakhtin said that social life was an open dialog among many voices. In open dialog, there is a "battle arena" for competition, compromise or rejection.
Awaiting surprises
The long road to the race will possibly present surprises. First, the map of political strengths ahead of the 2019 presidential election can still change; key to this is the Constitutional Court’s decision on the presidential threshold. If the decision upholds the threshold of 20 percent of House seats or 25 percent of popular votes, only two coalitions will be possible. The constellations that might appear will be a repeat of the Jokowi vs Prabowo contest in 2014.
With the support of Golkar, Hanura, the United Development Party (PPP), and Nasdem, which have declared their support, Jokowi has 32.5 percent of House seats and 35.61 percent of popular votes. His resources exceed the presidential threshold. If it remains so, it will not be difficult to predict the direction of the political pendulum of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which holds 19.5 percent of House seats and 18.95 percent of the popular vote. Meanwhile, the National Awakening Party (PKB) has 8.4 percent of House seats and 9.04 percent of the popular vote.
PAN, with 8.8 percent of House seats and 7.59 percent of the popular vote, could go anywhere. Meanwhile, the Gerindra, PKS and Democratic party camp has the potential for drawing closer.
This condition could change if the Constitutional Court decides on a zero-percent threshold. Parties both within and outside the ruling power will recalculate their own scenarios.
Second, the battle will be fierce in the 2018 simultaneous regional elections that will involve 171 regions, comprising 17 provinces, 39 cities, and 115 regencies.Three provinces are critical to the outcome of the 2018 elections and could also have a significant effect on the 2019 constellation: West Java, Central Java and East Java. It may be appropriate for us to call these three provinces as the deciding "battlegrounds". Based on the 2014 elections, 48 percent of voters were from the three provinces.
Third, the battle of public opinion deals with the credibility, capacity, and electability of the racing candidates, and its outcome can be converted to basic electoral capital. The mass media and social media have become an unending battlefield in forming the citizens’ opinion. But manipulating public opinion should not mislead logic and reason.
GUN GUN HERYANTO
Executive Director ofThe PoliticalLiteracy Institute and Lecturer of Political Communication at UIN Jakarta