Merkel and the Future of Europe

The German election held on Sunday (24/9/2017) was significant not only for Germany, but also for the European Union. As the most influential country in the EU in the last two decades, it makes sense that political development in Germany is a barometer of the future of Europe.

With Angela Merkel’s victory – although shadowed by the rising popularity of ultranationalist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) – and now serving her fourth consecutive term as German chancellor, how will this affect the EU’s solidarity after Brexit?

Dramatic election

This year’s election in Germany has truly attracted national and international attention. Even though many deemed the French election in May 2017 to be phenomenal in the scope of the EU, the German election on Sunday is more dramatic for two reasons.

First is because Germany is an influential country in setting the EU’s political dynamics. For almost two decades, Germany has had a significant role in implementing EU integration (Steinmeier, 2016). From the Kohl administration up to Merkel’s leadership, German has been deeply involved in uniting European countries, including in establishing and maintaining the euro’s stability as a single currency for 19 of the EU’s 28 member countries. However, this does not mean that Germany has not been tested.

One of its biggest tests came after the UK decided to split off from the EU after its referendum in June 2016, which reinforced euro-skepticism in the EU community and member countries. This was combined with the surging popularity of radical nationalist political parties, including in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Belgium, all of which wish for their government to exit the EU.

Second, the election was held in the midst of a turbulent period in Germany, due to the massive influx of Syrian refugees. Protests have arisen both from Germans and from the people of other EU countries. Since Merkel announced her “Wilkommens politik” policy in August 2015 and welcomed the millions of Syrian refugees who fled their country to Europe in their search for a safer place, the greater public of Germany and the EU has been torn in two.

In a July 2017 poll, 66 percent of Germans were pessimistic about Merkel’s idea of welcoming refugees (Deutsche Welle, 30/7/2016). Some Germans resorted to joining the far-right, anti-Islam organization Patriotic Europeans against the Islamization of the West (Pegida),or joined the AfD, which openly rejects Merkel’s policy. As a result, the AfD experienced a significant boost in public support at last weekend’s election, grabbing the third highest number of seats in the German parliament after Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Martin Schulz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). This was the first time a radical nationalist party gained so many seats in the German parliament.

In line with the dynamics in Germany, several other EU countries, namely Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland, have rejected Merkel’s policy. Meanwhile, other EU member countries that approve of the idea do so half-heartedly. Brexit is another example that is closely related to the effects of the refugee issue. It was reported that, in late 2016, Germany was “exiled” by other EU member countries due to Merkel’s refugee policy (Janninget al., 2016).

Domestic affairs is key

With the reelection of the “Mutti Multikulti” (Mother of Multiculturalism) as German chancellor, it can be predicted that the EU’s strength and solidarity will be maintained. Nevertheless, Merkel still faces big challenges. They key to overcome them is Merkel’s ability to maintain domestic stability. Germany’s internal political dynamics highly influences that of the EU.

In other words, Merkel needs to first prioritize Germany’s economic stability. Thus far, Germany’s economic growth and stability has been the main factor in the country’s leadership of the EU. Its economic growth has been reaching higher levels and, in 2016, Germany was in the top among G7 countries (Financial Times, 14/8).

As an EU economic powerhouse, Germany has led the efforts to resolve major European issues, including the conflict in Ukraine, the monetary crisis in Greece and the Syrian refugee crisis, by relying on its domestic economic productivity, including contributions from taxes. Merkel needs to continuously watch over the dissatisfaction shown by some of her people with economic policies they see as unbalanced.

The rising popularity of radical nationalist party AfD, which dominated the votes in former East German territories, will be the biggest challenge for Germany in the next four years. As long as Merkel is able to provide balanced welfare for all people in Germany, no significant domestic turbulence will arise. Consequently, Germany’s leadership of the EU will remain.

Second, Merkel needs to be creative in tackling the tedium some Germans may feel with her fourth leadership term. History has shown that Merkel’s mentor, Helmut Kohl, was defeated by Schroeder in the 1998 election not because of Germany’s declining economy. Rather, it was because of the dullness the German population felt after Kohl had led them for four terms. There are two options for Merkel to anticipate this possibility: one, by making populist breakthroughs that revive the people’s trust and enthusiasm for her or two, by systematically preparing a successor in her party.

Regarding party succession, rumor has it that the former Minister of Senior Citizens, Women and Youth and current Defense Minister, Ursula von der Leyen, is being groomed to replace Merkel in the future.

Merkel and the EU leadership

Amid the various regional problems, rising euro-skepticism and the rising popularity of radical right-wing politics in Europe, Merkels’s leadership is still very much needed. She is needed not only to maintain the EU’s sustainability as a big political entity, but also to protect and preserve the icons of universal humanitarian values and European democracy.

Previously, hopes that the EU’s collective politics would be strengthened were also borne by French President Emmanuel Macron. However, reality came crashing in after Macron’s brief “honeymoon period” with the French people. Merely four months after his inauguration, Macron received much criticism and protests for his domestic policies, including on labor reform.

It looks like Merkel needs to struggle harder to maintain Europe’s integration. As a senior political figure with a wealth of experience, and having lived through critical historic moments of modern European history during and after the Cold War – which sets her apart from other politicians in Europe – Merkel has huge capital in driving the locomotive that is Germany in bringing the EU to a golden age.

SITI SUSANTO

International Relations Department, Airlangga University