Not as Simple as Breaking Eggs
Resistance movements and protests against governments in the Middle East rarely end satisfactorily or happily.
Pro-government demonstrators gather on Jan. 3 at the Massoumeh shrine in Iran\'s holy city of Qom, some 130 kilometres south of Tehran, as tens of thousands gathered across the country in a massive show of support for the Islamic leadership after days of deadly unrest.
Resistance movements and protests against governments in the Middle East rarely end satisfactorily or happily. Even if such protests are successful in removing state leaders who are seen as autocrats, they never completely tear down the autocracy.
What happened in Egypt and Libya are good examples. Syria is showing similar signs; Yemen is not much different; Tunisia is a little better compared to the other countries that were swept up by the Arab Spring.
Will the same thing occur in Iran, which has seen widespread protests since Dec. 28, 2017? Only, the obstacles in Iran are not trivial and are, in fact, frightening: unarmed and disorganized groups or leaderless people fighting for pluralism, dignity and financial needs are facing an armed and organized theocratic group that controls everything.
Iran is indeed different from other countries in the region. It has a reputation as a problematic state and a theocratic republic. In a theocratic republic, true power belongs to God or Allah and his earthly representatives. In Iran, the highest leader is Ali Hosseini Khamenei, who is called Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, both in state matters and in religious affairs. He is assisted by his closest circle, the Beite Rahbari (Alan Salehzadeh: 2013).
This is what, at least, sets Iran apart from other countries in the region. In most autocratic secular states in the Middle East and the Gulf, the focus is often on pressuring Islamist opposition. However, the opposite is occurring in Iran, where the Islamist autocracy is pressuring the secular opposition.
A general vew shows traffic on a main road in Tehran on January 3, 2018. Tens of thousands were gathering in cities across the country in a massive show of strength for the regime after days of deadly unrest.
City of Mullahs
However, the protests that have swept Iran since the last final days of 2017 show signs of something different. Something extraordinary is happening. The first protest erupted in Mashhad, Iran’s second largest city. Mashhad, located 738 kilometers to the northeast of Tehran, is the capital of Khorasan-e Razavi ostan (province). It is a city of mullahs and a pilgrimage destination for Shia Muslims. Frustrated protesters are shouting slogans like: “Let Syria take care of itself! Think about us!”
Street protests erupted after clerics called for demonstrations against the food price hike, especially the price of eggs. Among the protesters are supporters of conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi, who was defeated in the May 2017 presidential election – which was won by Hassan Rouhani, who then implemented a liberal economic policy and cut the budget in December. The people are protesting this policy.
From Mashhad, the protest spread to Qom (127 kilometers south of Tehran), Iran’s holiest city that is called Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s city. The 1979 Iranian Revolution started in this city. Interestingly, the protesters in Qom are referring to memories of Iran’s Shah period in their campaign. The demonstrations then spread to Najafabad (702 kilometers south of Tehran). What is happening in this city is most interesting: The protesters are openly rejecting the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Protests then erupted in Rasht (241 kilometers northwest of Tehran, near the Caspian Sea), the capital of Gilan province. Rasht is a rice bowl. Protesters are rejecting the presence of the Revolutionary Guards. The protests then spread to Khoramabad (the capital of Lorestan province, around 373 kilometers northwest of Tehran). Located in the mountains, Lorestan is known as a producer of fruits, rice, crops and wool. The protesters are rejecting the dictatorial government. Just what are they referring to?
An opponent of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani chants slogans near placards showing portraits of opposition Maryam Rajavi, President of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), during a protest outside the European Union Council in Brussels, Belgium January 3, 2018.
Causes
Until the protests reached the Iranian capital of Tehran, what triggered them has been subject to debate. Furthermore, the protesters shout varying slogans and statements. Was this caused by the same thing, the increasing cost of living, the price of eggs, endemic corruption, state mismanagement and fraud? Or is it more political, that the all-powerful mullahs are dissatisfied with President Rouhani? The protests target both Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani.
This is markedly different from the mass protests in 2009, which was triggered by disputes over the presidential election results and the battle between reformist and hard-line groups, especially in Tehran. Since the beginning, the 2009 demonstration was a political battle. This time, the protest was triggered by hard-line clerics, but they are protesting the price hike of staple goods, including eggs.
What separates the 2009 and 2017-2018 demonstrations are also the ubiquity of smartphones. In 2009, as 2-3 million people joined the protests, only 1 million Iranians had cell phones. Today, 48 million Iranians have cell phones with communications and social media applications. The Atlantic Daily wrote that there were 40 million Telegram users in Iran. With this prevalence of smartphones, news on the protests, including the number of dead and arrested, spread rapidly.
However, the unemployment rate remains a huge issue in Iran. Tasnim news agency reported on Dec. 27, 2016 that the unemployment rate among those aged 15-29 was 26.7 percent; the unemployment rate among those aged 15-24 was 30.2 percent. Iran has around 80 million people. President Rouhani admitted in 2017 that unemployment was a “heavy burden” for his government. It is estimated that 1.2 million people will look for jobs this year.
In this Dec. 30, 2017, photo, Iranian protesters chant slogans at a rally in Tehran, Iran. The Trump administration is calling on Iran\'s government to stop blocking Instagram and other popular social media sites as Iranians demonstrate in the streets.
Iranians’ hoped that the 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers (US, UK, Russia, France, China and Germany) would soon improve the national economy, which had been under economic sanctions. After the deal, the inflation rate fell from around 40 percent to 12 percent. However, the people had yet to feel any other benefits.
In 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini said that revolution was not just about the price of watermelons, but today’s demonstrations have been caused by the price of eggs. However, has the increased price of eggs – a matter of the stomach – set off a movement that will undermine and eventually tear down the ruling regime, as has already happened in many other countries?
Surely, this is not as easy as breaking eggs. Iran is different from other Middle Eastern countries. Unless, that is, Tehran mismanages the protests and external hands enter the mix, desiring an end to the autocratic government and the mullahs’ republic. More strength is needed to reach the zero point.
