Populist Politics
During the political period this year and the next, politicians will tend toward populism in order to gain voter sympathy.
.
During the political period this year and the next, politicians will tend toward populism in order to gain voter sympathy. The populist turmoil of Jakarta politics in 2017 will have an effect. They realize that campaigning on grandiose theories will not sell.
The will use language that is as simple as possible for easy comprehension. Politicians, especially non-incumbents and those coming from outside the ruling government, will depict themselves as fighters for the people who are "oppressed" by the current regime and promise change.
Populism has existed throughout the history of politics. However, it appears to be growing today in various parts of the world, including America and Europe. Populism is not an ideology, but a political strategy that divides people into two camps: The camp of the "oppressed", or those whose aspirations have been denied, and the camp of the elite, which are "oppressive" and powerful. Populist politicians always speak in the name of marginalized people.
Populist politicians do not see a country as diverse, a place that houses a variety of different political interests. The state is divided into "small" people, or those whose aspirations are not being channelled on one side and the powerful and corrupt on the other side. Populism draws a strict line between supporters and opponents. A political contract will be signed only for the sake of fighting for “the marginalized”.
Ideologically, populists can tend toward the left or the right. The left-leaning will usually defend those who claim to have been marginalized economically as a result of the ruling elite and the rich controlling all resources. The right-leaning can be motivated by nationalism, sinophobia and even religious sentiments. The latter claim to fight for the majority of followers of a certain religion who feel that their religion is being threatened by a powerful and ruling minority.
Donald Trump is accused of winning the US presidential elections by selling a right-wing populist campaign. His slogan, "Make America Great Again", offered anti-immigrantion policies, threats against radical Islam, promoted nationalism, blamed cheap foreign products for job losses and took a protectionist stance against free trade agreements.
In Britain, populism led to Brexit, Britain\'s exit from the EU, which many circles say will cause losses to both Britain and the EU in the long run. The rising number of immigrants to Europe has also helped strengthen right-wing populist parties, especially in Eastern Europe.
Populism, which originates from liberal democracy, also has a tendency to move toward fascism and authoritarianism as soon as it comes into power. Nazi Germany under Hitler and Fascist Italy under Mussolini in World War II are examples of middle-class populist politics that later developed into anti-foreign fascism. Various conspiracy theories were sold to support their policies.
Populism managed by charismatic leaders and demagogues can even move the masses toward inciting a revolution, as has been proven in history.
Impacts of populism
Many people agree that the current Jakarta governor managed to defeat his rivals in the last gubernatorial election with his populist strategy. Various political contracts were made with lower-income groups and religious groups that accommodated their aspirations. Policies related to street vendors in Tanah Abang, becak (pedicabs) entering the kampungs, promises not to carry out evictions, zero down payment housing and others are part of the populist promises that efforts are currently being made to fulfill.
Problems will appear later, when the elected populist politician is about to fulfill all his promises.
When citing “the people” or "people\'s interests", populist politicians implicitly emphasize only those people who have enabled them to win. The 40 percent to 45 percent of the people who did not vote for them are irrelevant. They are considered nonexistent, so that the populist programs that are made to fulfill their campaign promises do not necessarily consider bigger interests that concern all citizens.
Populist politicians think only about the short term. The impacts of selected programs must be immediately felt by their constituents. They avoid campaigning for long-term programs that do not have an immediate impact on the people. Long-term programs generally also tend to cause pain in the short term. As a result, these consumptive programs will drain their funds. Therefore, inadequate attention is paid to anticipating the needs and problems that may arise in the future by allocating spending on long-term programs. Such a regime will greatly burden their successors at a later date.
There are populist politicians who are sincere, but there are also others who never intend to make good on their promises from the outset. The second group usually consists of professional politicians that may even come from the elite who oppose “the people" they claim to defend. Once elected, they will return to their natural habitat, because people of this type cannot change their way of thinking, which has been formed over a long time. In a similar vein, carrying out their populist promises may threaten their own interests and that of their interest groups.
Populist politicians also tend to sell promises to please voters without carefully calculating the capability of the institution they will lead in fulfilling such promises. What happens later, when they are elected, is that they will face two choices: Neglecting their promises or fulfilling them by cutting or abandoning important ongoing programs that were designed by the previous regime. At the same, this action is intended to show that that they are different from their predecessors.
Populist politicians believe that the people (the majority) will always make the right decision. Whatever the people’s demands that they must fulfill, they do not care even if, in the long run, they will bring potential harm to the people. The function of leaders as motivators and models of good governance is abandoned. For example, the government of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono followed the wishes of the people for cheap subsidized gasoline for 10 years, with the consequence that it wasted nearly Rp 1.3 quadrillion that could have been allocated to social welfare, including building badly needed infrastructure to boost the national economy.
A populist regime determines its policies on the basis of moral beliefs, not on the basis of rational consideration or well-planned economic and social calculations. As a result, the state will face surprises that are not anticipated along its journey. When therapy is needed later to eliminate the surprises by cutting down on populist policies, what will happen is that the constituents who are used to being spoiled will protest, or the condition has already become too severe to overcome.
The most dangerous is if the populist regime believes that they really do represent the people\'s aspirations, as they will view all opposing elements, such as opposition parties, mass media, law enforcers and all critical institutions, as enemies that must be destroyed. Such a populist regime, if supported by the armed forces, can endanger the sustainability of democracy.
Equally dangerous is populism that is based on religion and race. Here, politicians have stepped far beyond their rational minds. What they are playing on are primordial sentiments, which are highly sensitive and can trigger violence, from verbal to physical violence. We saw this last year, when several extremist groups took the law into their own hands against those who they considered to be against their will.
In new democratic countries whose democratic rules have not been fully upheld, the mix of populist and money politics constitutes a powerful weapon to raise voter support. Populism is also a card that incumbents frequently play to be reelected, such as by adjusting the government budget in a political year in a way that can be felt directly and immediately by the people. Populism frequently produces only rhetoric and emotional sermons with nationalist or provincialist flavor. The national spirit is moved to support imaginary goals. National problems that harm the people are exaggerated to awaken the emotion of the masses.
Role of the people
Even though no other better system has been found, democracy almost never produces the best leaders. Even if this does happen once in a while, it is more of a coincidence and the good fortune and luckiness of the nation being led. Therefore, the greater public should not stand idly by and leave all democratic processes to the existing system.
Ahead of the simultaneous regional elections that will occur in five months and the presidential election that will occur in 14 months, in April 2019, civil society, intellectuals and the press must guide the voters in electing the right candidates. The public needs to be given as much input as possible about the integrity, track record and character of the regional and legislative candidates so as not to make the wrong choices. The government and law enforcement officers have to ensure that all parties follow the rules of the game.
The press should no longer act as if they were neutral. The press may take sides and promote certain candidates that are believed to be honest, capable and well intentioned, if such assessments are based on strong convictions and objective facts. Populism is not prohibited as long as it constitutes positive populism, one that is rational, does not divide the nation, is supported by genuine intentions and is coupled with long-term visionary outlooks that are constructive and beneficial for the development of the nation.
Abdillah Toha
Political Observer
