Running Mate for Jokowi

The National Working Conference of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) in Bali has finally decided to support President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo for reelection in 2019. The palace has been buzzing with visits from distinguished figures. The political elite, the media and pollsters have been busy guessing, who would be the right running mate for Jokowi?

The decision in Bali ended speculation over the delay in the PDI-P, Jokowi\'s own party, in stating their support for his reelection bid, when seven other parties had already declared their support. The seven political parties consist of four parties that won seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) in the 2014 general elections (Nasdem, Golkar, Hanura and the United Development Party, or PPP) and three non-DPR parties (the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party/PKPI, the Indonesian Solidarity Party/PSI and the United Indonesia Party/Perindo).

Public attention is no longer focused on the presidential candidate ahead of the 2019 presidential election, but rather on the candidate for vice president. This is not only because the candidates for the presidency has been relatively clear, namely Jokowi as the incumbent and Prabowo Subianto as his challenger, but also because the chance of a third presidential candidate emerging is relatively small. Law No. 7/2017 on the General Elections allows only those political parties and/or party coalitions that have won 25 percent of votes or 20 percent of DPR seats to nominate candidates for the presidential election. The Constitutional Court recently reaffirmed the mandate of the General Election Law through a final ruling that rejected the judicial review that several parties had filed.

If the five political parties in the government coalition – the PDI-P, Golkar, Nasdem, Hanura and the PPP – which hold 52.1 percent of total votes and 51.7 percent of House seats, back Jokowi again, Gerindra, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Democrat Party will remain. If Gerindra and the PKS nominate Prabowo – coincidentally, the two parties together have 20 percent of House seats –the combined votes or seats of the Democrat Party (10.2 percent of votes, 10.9 percent of seats) and PAN (7.7 percent of votes, 8.8 percent of seats) will not be enough to meet the presidential threshold for nominating a candidate besides Jokowi and Prabowo.

The potential for a third axis occurs only if the PKB (9.0 percent of votes, 8.4 percent of seats) –a party of the ruling coalition that has not yet declared its support for Jokowi – chooses to join the Democrats and PAN. Even if this transpired, who would be they nominate? In the context of the 2019 presidential election, aren’t Muhaimin Iskandar and the Democrat Party’s young leader, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, better prepared and positioned as candidates for vice president rather than for president?

Four potentials

Even though the PDI-P has decided to back Jokowi again, it is not clear who is deemed the appropriate the vice presidential candidate. Ideally, Jokowi needs a running mate who is not merely competent, visionary and possesses chemistry with and is able to work alongside the former mayor of Solo, but also one who represents Indonesia\'s diversity. However, is there a vice presidential candidate who fulfills these ideal requirements?

In this connection, there are at least four potential running mates for Jokowi. First, the chairmen of the political parties in Jokowi\'s coalition, excepting PDI-P chairperson Megawati, who has already been vice president (1999-2001) and president (2001-2004). Golkar, Hanura, Nasdem, the PKB, the PPP and PAN will of course try to nominate the chair of their party’s board of supervisors as Jokowi’s running mate in the 2019 presidential election. These parties’ helmsmen are, respectively, Airlangga Hartarto, Wiranto, Surya Paloh, Muhaimin Iskandar, M Romahurmuziy and Zulkifli Hasan.

Second, community figures, including professionals, women and leaders of community organizations, could also be a potential source of Jokowi’s running mate. A number of names can be listed in this category, including Mahfud MD, Yenny Wahid, Jimly Asshiddiqie, Chairul Tanjung and Nahdlatul Ulama general chairman Said Aqil Siroj and General Chairman of Muhammadiyah Haedar Nashir. The list of these community figures can certainly be longer.

Third, the ministers in the working Cabinet whose performance meets the President\'s expectations are another potential source of a vice presidential candidate for Jokowi to consider. There are several ministers who are more prominent than others, such as Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Minister of Maritimene Affairs and Fisheries Susi Pudjiastuti and Minister of Public Works and Housing Basuki Hadimuljono, as well as the Coordinating Minister for Human Development and Culture.

Fourth are those who have made an electronic mark among polling institutions. There are many candidates beyond Jokowi and Prabowo, but almost none are electorally significant. A number of surveys have confirmed that besides Jusuf Kalla, who has twice been vice president, second-tier candidates after Jokowi and Prabowo include Anies Baswedan, Gatot Nurmantyo and Agus Yudhoyono. In the next tier are many others with much lower electability.

Internal friction

Within these four potential sources for a vice presidential candidate, a relatively tight competition is taking place among the parties of the ruling coalition backing Jokowi. Muhaimin has even declared himself a vice presidential candidate on large billboards throughout the country. Interestingly however, the PKB of the ruling coalition has not declared its support for Jokowi in 2019, so it is as yet unclear to the public whether the PKB general chairman intends to be a running mate to Jokowi, Prabowo or another candidate for the presidency.

Aside from Muhaimin, Hanura general chairman Oesman Sapta Odang has nominated Wiranto as Jokowi’s running mate in the upcoming presidential election. The general chairmen of other coalition parties will, of course, expect Jokowi to invite their own nominations to replace Jusuf Kalla. Golkar, which is very eager to support Jokowi, certainly does not want to lose the chance to champion Airlangga Hartarto as the running mate of the former Jakarta governor. Moreover, Jokowi and Golkar are experiencing a political honeymoon, and Airlangga has been appointed as the industry minister and concurrently the “banyan tree” party’s chairman.

Nobody knows whether Jokowi’s running mate will emerge from among the leadership of coalition parties. As a PDI-P cadre, I believe Jokowi is aware that he may not be able to choose his own candidate for vice president. Moreover, choosing a running mate among the leaders of coalition parties raises the potential for internal friction. On the other hand, the multi-party coalition is not entirely synonymous with electoral votes, so there is no guarantee that choosing a vice presidential candidate from among them will help boost Jokowi\'s electability.

Fulfill political promises

Therefore, Jokowi\'s current priority should not be mulling over his running mate. Communication and lobbying party leadership and other members of the political elite are important and necessary. However, what is no less important and should be the President’s priority is to use the 18 months left in the current term to fulfill his campaign promises. Leave the selection of the vice presidential candidate to the general chairmen of the coalition parties.

Kompas/Heru Sri Kumoro

Syamsuddin Haris

During this short period of time, Jokowi should focus on self-evaluating his performance, including paying off his political debts and meeting the nine points of the Jokowi-Kalla Nawacita priority program. Which programs and policies have been achieved, which have not, and which ones have met with obstacles? In the context of Nawacita, for example, to what extent has the government succeeded in restoring the country to protect and provide security for all citizens and the life of the nation and state?

President Jokowi’s honest evaluation of the government\'s achievements and recognition of its limitations in fulfilling its promises, I think, will make for a more significant electoral contribution than merely seeking a running mate. Whoever will stand as Jokowi’s vice presidential candidate must be clean, possess a strong track record as a leader with integrity, have no legal flaws or carry political burdens of the past, and have a strong commitment to nationalism and Indonesian-ness.

Syamsuddin Haris, Research Professor, the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)