Although the country has many problems, we may be optimistic that Indonesia will survive through 2030 and even through 2045 to witness a century of our nation’s independence.
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Can Indonesia survive until 2030? Ghost Fleet, a novel by FW Singer and August Cole, predicts that Indonesia would be a mere name in 2030. This wild imagining turned into controversy when Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto cited it. Although Prabowo might have intended to call on Indonesian leaders and citizens to think about the possibility (of disintegration), it is unavoidable that the statement triggered anxiety in public. It triggered a politics of fear.
Prabowo’s statement underlines pessimism among the citizenry whether Indonesia could survive the variety of political, economic and sociocultural problems it faces. As a large country – not only in terms of size or population – it is only normal that it has problems.
However, pessimism and the politics of fear about Indonesia’s possible disintegration could multiply fear.
Take a look at the analysis by British administrator and scientist JS Furnivall in Netherlands East Indies: A Plural Economy (1939). In the book that discusses unequal economy plurality in the East Indies, Furnivall emerged with a scenario of doom for Indonesia. He predicted that if the Dutch did not rule in the East Indies after the World War, the territory would disintegrate because there was no unifying factor within its extraordinary plurality.
Nevertheless, Furnivall’s prediction did not come to pass. Instead of disintegrating, Indonesia proclaimed its independence on Aug. 17, 1945.
A gloomy prediction for the country also existed among scholars on Indonesia when the country was transitioning from an authoritarian nation to a democracy in 1997-1998. It was said that the economic, political and social crises could lead Indonesia to Balkanization, to disintegrate like the Balkan states in the 1990s.
The predicted Balkanization also did not come to pass in Indonesia, thank God. Although the freedom that emerged during the democratic transition triggered a worrying political upheaval, Indonesia survived. To the contrary, in the last few years when Indonesia’s economic growth stood stagnant, several credible institutions such as the World Economic Forum (WEF) or PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) declared that the Indonesian economy would grow to become the 5th or 4th largest economy in the world by 2025-2030.
Why did the foreign scholars miss in their predictions about Indonesia’s disintegration – never mind the fiction? The problem was the reality on which they were based. Even scientific predictions tend to view Indonesia from just one side, not from many sides. Also, they based their prediction on the European experience.
European analysts on Indonesia viewed Indonesia based on Europe’s historical experience, which is filled with bloody conflicts. Although Europe is homogenous in terms of ethnicity (Caucasian) and religion (Christianity), it disintegrated into 57different countries from World War II until the present day. On the other hand, Furnivall’s prediction, for example, only focused on the Indonesian economy, which was pluralistic and full of inequalities. Meanwhile, the Balkanization scenario focused only on Indonesia’s political aspect.
In fact, from Indonesia’s social and cultural traditions, although very pluralistic, Indonesian culture is very fluid due to Indonesia’s being a “maritime continent”, which makes trade possible from one place to another where various ethnicities could interact and engage in cultural exchange. No less important is the religious factor. The many religions in Indonesia do not divide its ethnic diversity, but instead enhance solidarity beyond ethnicity and socioculture traditions.
Kompas/Idha Saraswati Wahyu Sejati
Azyumardi Azra
In the beginning, religious solidarity (al-ukhuwwah al-diniyyah) existed among the different ethnicities. Under the colonial rule of the Dutch and then the Japanese, this religious solidarity grew into national solidarity (al-ukhuwwah al-wathaniyyah). This is the Indonesian unity, and it cannot dissolve easily. Indonesia’s capacity for survival is only growing stronger.
So, once again, although the country has many problems, we may be optimistic that Indonesia will survive through 2030 and even through 2045 to witness a century of our nation’s independence.
Azyumardi Azra, Culture and Humanities Professor, Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University
