Biding Time as Strategy

KOMPAS/WISNU WIDIANTORO

Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo.

Four months ahead of the registration of presidential candidates and their running mates for next year’s general election, no significant movement in the election tickets has been made.

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has yet to decide on his running mate. His most likely rival, retired military general Prabowo Subianto, has yet to secure support from political parties beyond his own Greater Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra). Coalitions outside of those backing Jokowi and Prabowo have yet to emerge.

Watch-and-wait seems to be the current strategy, especially among the three major alliances in national politics. The first alliance is the government coalition and the political parties backing Jokowi. The second alliance is Prabowo and the Gerindra Party, and the third comprises all other parties that are not backing either Jokowi or Prabowo. This includes the Democratic Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). All four have yet to announce who they are backing in the election.

Jokowi seems to be waiting to see whom his opponents will champion in the election. With an electability rate of 55.9 percent according to the latest survey by Kompas research and development (R&D), Jokowi is in a powerful position to determine the formation of political coalitions, including that of his rivals.

In the stagnant political race, Jokowi has the advantage, as public and party attention is focused on him. Consequently, his popularity is increasing for reelection. The more nervous his rivals are, the easier it will be for him to pick a running mate.

The lack of any clear coalition among the opposition also benefits Jokowi’s main backer, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). The party’s popularity has continued to rise after it announced its support for Jokowi. Apart from its strong electoral base, the party, led by former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, has become the preferred party among undecided voters.

Running mates

Nevertheless, there remains a possibility that Jokowi could be weakened by his choice of running mate, which will affect at least two things. The first is Jokowi’s own popularity. If he chooses the right running mate, he will be able to further increase (or at least maintain) his popularity. However, if he chooses the wrong running mate, it is not impossible that his popularity will plummet.

Secondly, Jokowi’s running mate may also affect his relationship with his coalition parties and undecided parties. If he picks a controversial figure as his vice president, his coalition may weaken. A number of external parties, which have proposed their elite members as Jokowi’s running mate as a prerequisite for joining the government coalition, may either announce their support for his reelection bid or form a new coalition soon.

Thus far, the Democratic Party has Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono to use as a potential bargaining chip. The PKB has very publicly proposed its chair, Muhaimin Iskandar, while the PKS has proposed nine names as either president or vice president.

Jokowi has yet to declare his running mate, despite making several statements that he had already made his choice. He seems to have taken a page from Sun Tzu or Antonio Gramsci, using the “tactical dispositions” strategy of waiting for his opponents’ certainty in their candidates before announcing his running mate.

In its latest survey from Mar. 21 to Apr. 1, Kompas R&D asked 1,200 nationwide respondents on the electability of presidential candidates, the potential running mates and party movement ahead of the 2019 election. The survey results will be published in three articles starting today on page 5.

Bambang Setiawan, Kompas R&D