Waiting for Presidential, Vice Presidential Candidates
The nomination of the presidential and vice presidential candidates is growing nearer. Approaching the deadline on Aug. 10, there has not yet been any certain pair of presidential and vice president candidates. Lobbying, maneuvering and struggling among parties and those aspiring to be in office has continued.
By
AZYUMARDI AZRA
·6 minutes read
The nomination of the presidential and vice presidential candidates is growing nearer. Approaching the deadline on Aug. 10, there has not yet been any certain pair of presidential and vice president candidates. Lobbying, maneuvering and struggling among parties and those aspiring to be in office, especially for vice president, has continued without giving any assurance to the public.
President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who can certainly come back as the presidential candidate for his second term on July 23, held a meeting with six chairpersons of his coalition\'s supporting parties. The six parties are the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Golkar, the National Awakening Party (PKB), Nasdem, the United Development Party (PPP) and Hanura.
The meeting created six decisions for strengthening the coalition in facing the presidential election without mentioning who would be Jokowi’s vice presidential candidate. In the deal, the vice presidential candidate\'s name will be announced by Jokowi himself, hinting that he has a strong position in determining his running mate.
On the same evening, the 212 Alumni Brotherhood (PA 212) met with Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto and the party\'s supporters. The meeting reportedly discussed two vice presidential candidates to accompany Prabowo.
With the PA 212 as the "host", it implied the existence of the 212 political spirit, which was considered successful in the Jakarta regional elections in 2017. Here, Prabowo\'s difficulties mount. In addition to facing complications due to contestation among the four parties in the race for the vice presidential position, Prabowo may also face the aspirations of the PA 212, which are not necessarily in harmony with Prabowo\'s own will, the demands of one party or the shared desire of two or more parties.
Amidst the complexity of the development, especially in the Prabowo coalition, it is still difficult to ascertain how many vice presidential candidates will compete in the 2019 presidential election. This will only become apparent in the last moments ahead of registration with the General Elections Commission (KPU).
If the Prabowo camp can overcome the contestation among his supporters in determining his running mate, there are only two pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates. However, if this camp fails, there may be only one pair, leaving the ballots with one blank column.
The strongest presidential candidate will of course be President Jokowi with the support of a six-party coalition (61.25 percent of legislative election votes in 2014). With the remaining strength of four other parties at less than 40 percent — faced with a 20 percent threshold for one party or a party coalition for the presidential and vice presidential candidate nomination — it is difficult to find an alternative to the presidential and vice presidential candidate from the third coalition besides Jokowi and Prabowo.
The four remaining parties (Gerindra, PAN, the PKS and the Democratic Party) will also face difficulty supporting an alternative candidate besides Prabowo as their presidential candidate. Prabowo, who according to a number of surveys, is the candidate with the second-highest electability after Jokowi — although far behind — remains a prominent figure.
Even though Prabowo can be said to have been "agreed on" as the presidential candidate, a sharp difference occurs with the vice presidential candidate, namely between PAN and the PKS. The differences seem to increase with the approach of the Democratic Party and the Prabowo camp, culminating in the meeting of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Prabowo (24/7/2018), which has the potential to remove PAN and the PKS.
SBY and Prabowo can build a limited coalition between Gerindra and the Democratic Party because the votes of the two parties reach 21 percent. This scenario could result in a Prabowo-Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono pair. If this happens, PAN and the PKS have two options: Get out of Prabowo camp’s coalition with the possibility of joining Jokowi\'s camp or take a stand for the spectators.
There is another small possibility: Three parties with a total vote of more than 24 percent (the Democratic Party 10.19 percent, PAN 7.59 percent and the PKS 6.79 percent) can form a coalition by leaving Prabowo and Gerindra. If this happens, Prabowo cannot be a presidential candidate because Gerindra’s votes are only at 11.81 percent. However, it is not easy to get another presidential candidate with an electability level that enables him to compete with Jokowi.
A stern political contestation with regard to the vice presidential candidacy is occurring not only in the Prabowo camp. Although less intense, competition is also occurring among the vice presidential candidate to accompany Jokowi. Among the candidates being mentioned, the ones who most openly express their desire are Cak Imin (Muhaimin Iskandar, chairman of the PKB), Airlangga Hartarto (chairman of Golkar) and, at a lower level, Gus Romy (M Romahurmuziy, chairman of the PPP).
Even though Jokowi has given a number of hints indicating the three figures, it remains unclear as to who will be chosen by Jokowi. Jokowi said several times that the names of potential running mates were still stored in his pocket.
In line with that, the space for the vice presidential candidate for the Jokowi camp seems to be open with a judicial review of Article 169 of Law No. 7 of 2017 on the general election, filed by Perindo, related to the term of office for president and vice president. In essence, Perindo is taking legal action against the phrase "not consecutive" in the General Election Law, which they think is inconsistent with Article 7 of the 1945 Constitution.
This judicial review is related to Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who has served as vice president twice, not consecutively. The controversy broke out when Vice President Kalla through his legal counsel declared him a "related party".
Even though there are people who perceive Perindo\'s lawsuit negatively, testing the material is important to provide legal certainty. The Constitutional Court may either accept or reject the judicial review, which then becomes a legal provision.
Later, every presidential candidate should consider carefully in setting their vice presidential candidate. The most important consideration is the interests of Indonesia. Although the vice president is only an aide to the President, he must have strong integrity, high acceptability, proven capability, full competence and extensive experience to work together with the President to further advance Indonesia.
Azyumardi Azra, Professor of Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta; member of the AIPI Culture Commission