Battle for Millennial Votes

KOMPAS/DIDIE SW

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The 2019 general elections will be an arena for garnering ballots from millennial voters. They will number in the majority, so millennials will be a determining factor in which candidate will gain the presidency and which political parties will win in the legislative election.

Based on Statistics Indonesia’s (BPS) 2010 census, a projected 55 to 58 percent of voters in 2019 will be millennials. Last year’s Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) study shows that millennial voters in rural areas tend to favor incumbent Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. Jokowi currently shows a strong lead in these areas. In contrast, Prabowo Subianto tends to have stronger support among urban millennials, and support for Jokowi and Prabowo appears to be balanced among urban millennials.

The challenge for the two presidential candidates is expanding their constituency in areas with weak voter support and maintaining areas with a strong constituency. In other words, Jokowi must work harder in urban areas while Prabowo must be more aggressive in rural areas to gain more millennial votes. The battle for millennial voters will therefore be quite fierce.

Who are millennials, what are their politics?

There are a variety of definitions for millennials. However, millennials are generally defined as the generation that began to enter adulthood in the new millennium, i.e. the 21st century. Thus, members of the millennial generation were born in the early 1980s to the early 2000s. In the 2019 general elections, the millennial voters will be aged 17-38. According to the BPS projection above, more than 100 million voters will number among this generation, from an estimated 190 million total voters.

Age is not the only criterion for the millennial label. The biggest factor that differentiates millennials from the older generations (generation X and baby boomers) is their familiarity and fluency with digital and internet-based technology. Almost all members of the millennial generation, especially those under 30 years of age, are active internet users.

Their digital literacy further defines the character of this generation. The basic characteristics of the internet, such as fast-paced, instantaneous, updated and connected, makes this generation one that highly values freshness, creativity, informality, flexibility and adaptability. Anyone who wants to gain the sympathy of this generation, never mind their political support, must pay attention to these characteristics.

Researches in a number of countries spanning more than a decade that Time magazine, USA Today and the Pew Research Center have published, point to a number of negative as well as positive aspects that have developed among the millennial generation. In terms of negatives, millennials have been described as a narcissistic, self-centered generation, or the “Me Me Me Generation” that cares only about themselves.

A more neutral and positive description says that the millennial generation is more suited to a flexible and informal work schedule and prefers continuous feedback, especially from their superiors or people they respect. They focus more on material and extrinsic values in life, such as money (wealth), attractive appearances, fame and image.

It is not surprising that this generation idolize people who appear physically and materially successful (wealth and wellness). Communal values such as public behavior and community acceptance are not so important to them.

Millennials are also described as a generation that tends to be open-minded, more tolerant of minorities and highly confident, have liberal tendencies and are attracted to new ideas or ways of life. In essence, this is a generation that is accustomed to living with rapid changes that require a multi-pronged approach. In terms of their political standpoint, millennials tend to be civically and politically disengaged, so pose a challenge for the political groups that seek to approach them.

One way to map this generation in Indonesia is by dividing them into rural and urban millennial. According to the BPS, the millennial population is split in two, more or less: half in urban areas and half in rural areas. Roughly speaking, we can estimate that half of the millennial population lives in rural areas and the other half in urban areas.

Internet use in rural areas, according to SMRC data (2018), is about 27 percent. Thus, it is believed that still many millennials in rural areas are not familiar with the internet. The research indicates a political trend of stronger support for Prabowo among internet users and millennials. This is one reason why Jokowi\'s electability in rural areas is far ahead of Prabowo’s.

In urban populations, internet use is prevalent at a range of 50 percent. This is one of the reasons why support for Jokowi and Prabowo among internet users and millennials in urban areas tend to be balanced, compared to rural areas.

Why is support for Prabowo stronger among internet users and millennials? There are many answers, but there are at least two highly likely possibilities.

First, conversation on politics is likely to be more negative on the internet, especially social media. Because Jokowi is the incumbent, it is reasonable that discussions revolve around him and everything related to his performance or character. It is also easier for the opposition to upload negative content about the incumbent, because their job is to criticize him and paint him in a negative light. This results in a more negative image of the incumbent in cyberspace, especially if the opposition has a sufficient following.

This negativity resonates with the millennial tendency for political ambivalence. Surveys in recent years also reveal a negative perception of politicians. For example, a 2013 Indonesian Political Indicator survey showed a negative perception of politicians among internet users, who viewed them as people who cared only about their personal interests, broke their campaign promises and were focused on their reputations.

Second, the potential for economic problems is one reason why millennial support for Jokowi tends to be weaker. Difficulty finding jobs and unemployment are generally the top public complaints over the past three years. This year’s BPS data shows a very high unemployment rate among millennials, especially those below 30 years.

The under-30 workforce – according to the BPS in February 2018 – is around 38 million, with around 4.8 million unemployed. This means that the under-30 generation unemployment rate is around 12.6 percent. Among the under-25 generation, the unemployment rate is even higher. Of the approximately 22 million people in the under-25 workforce, around 3.6 million (16.4 percent) are unemployed.

Meanwhile, voters in the under-25 demographic are first-time voters, with many still studying or new university graduates that are very concerned about their future, especially with regard to finding jobs and starting families. The unemployment rate among younger millennials is far above the national unemployment rate, which was 5.13 percent in February 2018 according to the BPS.

Voters facing economic difficulties, especially employment, typically blame the incumbent. This is one reason why support for the incumbent tends to be weaker among millennials, especially those in urban areas, while support for the challenger, in this case Prabowo, tends to be stronger.

There are many other factors, but these two responses can temporarily resolve the issue of the millennial generation’s political preference.

Triangulation as strategy

The next interesting question is, what is the trend in millennial support for the running mates? A more specific answer to this question must be found through public opinion surveys. It will arrive soon, as I am sure a number of institutions are currently polling the electability of the presidential candidate pairs. It will also depend on the candidates’ presidential campaigns over the next eight months or so.

To be certain, the incumbent pair appears to have started on a less-than-solid (shaky) footing. What Jokowi needs is to strengthen his electability among urban millennials, but his running mate is expected to be able to help Jokowi only in rural regions, where Jokowi already has strong support. It is likely that he also needs to expand his base beyond the millennial generation. In contrast, Prabowo\'s running mate doubled the opposition’s support among urban millennials, as Sandiaga Uno is closer to millennials than Ma\'ruf Amin. As a result, Jokowi must divide his individual electability among rural and urban areas, while Prabowo and Sandi are likely to share their support in rural and urban areas.

Another challenge for the incumbent is in restoring the voter enthusiasm that has declined (negative reaction) since Ma\'ruf was chosen as his vice president, much of which is thought to have occurred in the millennial generation. The negative response to Jokowi\'s choice of running mate derive from three things: the selection process and treatment concerning Mahfud MD; the impression that Jokowi relinquished control to his coalition, even though he is a strong incumbent; and that his vice president is a controversial figure among a large part of Jokowi\'s constituency.

Therefore, the two camps have more than enough reason to maintain the millennial generation as one of their key campaign focuses in the next eight months. The millennial character requires that the two camps employ triangulation (combining a number of approaches and strategies) to attract millennial voters. There are many strategies that can be combined, such as demographic, sociological, rational-psychological and geopolitical strategies. The more unique and individual mix of strategies that is formulated and implemented, the more improved ability to attract millennial voters.

Three things must definitely be part of the basic framework: First, the outreach medium for millennials must be familiar to them, so the internet and social media are critical. Second, the content must match milliennial interests, which does not include conventional politics. This could be called non-political politics. Third, the campaign team or organizer must be attractive to the millennial generation. The Malay proverb says: Memikat balam dengan balam (Only smart people know how to attract smart people). Quails must be used to attract a quail, and not a dove, as quails and doves will only fight.

Djayadi Hanan, Executive Director, Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC); Political Science Lecturer, Paramadina University