Rainy Season to Arrive Late

Weather experts have said that there is a 70-percent chance that the El Nino weather phenomenon gets stronger later this year, leading to a late arrival of the rainy season in most parts of Indonesia. The warning of a stronger El Nino weather pattern was delivered by the WMO.

KOMPAS/BAHANA PATRIA GUPTA

People go about their daily routines in the receding Pacal Reservoir in Bojonegoro regency, East Java, on Monday, Sept. 17, 2018. The ongoing drought has meant the water supplies of Pacal Reservoir are now too low to irrigate 16,000 hectares of rice fields in six districts in Bojonegoro.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – Weather experts have said that there is a 70-percent chance that the El Nino weather phenomenon gets stronger later this year, leading to a late arrival of the rainy season in most parts of Indonesia.

The warning of a stronger El Nino weather pattern was delivered by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The intensity of this year’s El Nino cannot be ascertained but, most likely, it would not be as strong as the one in 2015.

Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) chief Dwikorita Karnawati said in Jakarta on Monday (17/9/2018) that, “the BMKG will continue to monitor El Nino’s development as it can affect the weather pattern in Indonesia.”

Dwikorita went on to say that the BMKG had issued its 2018-2019 rainy season weather forecast earlier this month. Compared to the 30-year climatological average (from the 1981-2010 period), the rainy season in 2018-2019 will begin later in November-December in 69.4 percent of the zona musim (seasonal zone). Only around 22.8 percent of the seasonal zone will have a normal start to the rainy season, while the remaining 8.8 percent will have an early start.

Intensity-wise, 71.9 percent of regions will have normal intensity rainfall in 2018-2019, while 20.2 percent of regions will have lower-than-normal intensity and 7.9 percent of regions will have higher-than-normal intensity.

Dwikorita said the rainy season was predicted to peak in January-February 2019. In any case, the El Nino weather pattern is expected to lessen rainfall intensity across several regions, especially in eastern Indonesia.

Typhoon Mangkhut

Separately, BMKG senior weather forecaster Seonardi said the rainy season had arrived in several regions, including Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Riau Islands, North Kalimantan and Papua. Rainfall in these regions was triggered by the typhoon Mangkhut that hit the Philippines.

The rainy season is expected to arrive in Kalimantan in October. Meanwhile, the rainy season is expected to arrive in eastern Kalimantan, South Sumatra, Lampung, South Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara in November or December.

The head of BMKG Region IV South Sulawesi’s data and information division, Daryanto, said the longest stretch of days without rain – 68 days long – occurred in Makassar City and Jeneponto, Maros and Takalar regencies. “The lack of rain has led to a depleting water supply,” he said.

In Lampung, drought is expected to lead to delays in the planting season. In 2017, local farmers could start planting rice in early September. In South Kalimantan, drought has affected fish cultivation in floating fish cages along the Martapura River. The river’s depleting water debit has led to the death of fish.

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

At the peak of the dry season people are forced to find sources of water on the banks of a river in Cekel village, Karangayung district, Grobogan regency, Central Java, on Monday, Sept. 17, 2018. The drought has also seen water supplies in rivers, ponds and reservoirs needed for agricultural increasingly subside.

“Last month, 15 tons of fish died,” said the head of a Melati fish cultivators group, Muhammad Refki, in Sungai Alang village, Banjar regency, South Kalimantan.

Data from the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) show that drought has hit 11 provinces since January this year. BNPB spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said the agency had prepared a budget of Rp 50 billion (US$3.35 million) to provide an emergency water supply, water tanks and bored wells in order to fight the drought.

Extreme weather

WMO monitoring show that the seas and the atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean, which was cool from April to early September this year, has begun to warm up. The sea surface temperature in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicator zone in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to increase between 0.6 degrees Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius between November this year and January next year.

The ENSO climate anomaly comprises the El Nino and La Nina phenomena that repeats every two to eight years. The climate phenomenon greatly affects weather and climate patterns in most of the world.

“Climate change has affected the traditional patterns and severity of El Nino and La Nina. This year began with a weak La Nina, but the cooling-down was not enough to decrease the recent trend of global warming. As a result, this year will be the hottest in recent years,” WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas said.

Despite ENSO being in neutral conditions, the trend of global warming has led to extreme weather, including the heat wave in Europe and flash floods in Japan, India and Southeast Asia. “Most of these clearly show the effects of climate change,” Taalas said.

(AIK/JUM/REN/VIO/E20/E22)