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Mitigating Uncertainty in 2019

By
A. PRASETYANTONO
· 3 minutes read
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AP PHOTO/NATACHA PISARENKO

High-ranking financial officials from G20 member countries, a group of the 20 largest economies in the world, pose for a photograph in Buenos Aires on Monday, March 19. They included, among others, United States Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin (left, foreground), managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde (center) and French Economic and Financial Minister Bruno Le Maire (right).

This situation changes the global supply chain map, which is followed by a shift in the pattern of trade and regional growth. The real impact of the US-China trade war is the migration of export-oriented industries from China, for example to Vietnam and Thailand.

Closely observing the development of the economic situation and prospects in 2019, short, medium or long-term policy scenarios need to be prepared. First, interest rate instruments are still needed if financial markets remain volatile in 2019. To anticipate hikes in the Fed\'s interest rate, Bank Indonesia\'s benchmark interest rate is estimated to rise further in 2019. Short-term instruments are also needed, so that the impact of global dynamics on the domestic economy via the financial line can be mitigated.

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