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Global Uncertainty

So far, the consensus on global-economic projections for the next few years is stagflation or an era in which economic growth is low, while inflation is high.

By
A. PRASETYANTOKO
· 5 minutes read
https://cdn-assetd.kompas.id/IKoxKrMsudHiDH7_WYDOxg7GIzY=/1024x576/https%3A%2F%2Fasset.kgnewsroom.com%2Fphoto%2Fpre%2F2022%2F02%2F10%2F8fedd128-d818-4a22-be50-36de5c7d1e66_jpg.jpg

Uncertainty is the biggest enemy of planning, while economics is a matter of projections and strategic calculations that are passed down in the budget. Day-by-day, economic projections are becoming more uncertain, so that imagination about the future based on currently available data is needed. As a result, planning becomes dialectic between vision (ideals) and reality that can quickly change according to changing situations.

Such an approach is known as scenario-based planning. Since the 1970s, the world’s major oil-and-gas company Royal Dutch Shell has developed this approach in coping with uncertainty in oil prices due to political conflicts in the Middle East region and the era of hyper-inflation. Apparently, this approach is very relevant to recent developments at a time of heightened uncertainty.

Editor:
NASRULLAH NARA
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