New Approach: Time to Look to the Future

KOMPAS/JANNES EUDES WAWA

This robot is part of the artificial intelligence introduced by Panasonic at the exhibition in Tokyo on October 30-November 3 2018.

“The illiterate of the future will not be the person who cannot read. It will be the person who does not know how to learn.” (Alvin Toffler, 1928-2016, BrainyQuote)

The name of the US futurist cited above suddenly came to my mind as I set out to write this introduction. Toffler is known for his books on modern technology and for his views on the future, as laid out in Future Shock (1970) and The Third Wave (1980).

Despite being concerned with the future, Toffler asserted he was not a fortune teller. To quote more of his words: "No serious futurist deals in ‘predictions’. These are left for television oracles and newspaper astrologers.”

Besides Toffler, another popular name in forward thinking of the 1980s and 1990s is that of John Naisbitt, the author of Megatrends (1982) and Megatrends 2000 (1990).

Indeed, there are elements of prediction in Toffler’s and Naisbitt\'s books, but what they wrote is based on developments at the time, from which they drew a projection, or extrapolated developments, to predict what they believed would manifest itself one day in the future.

As emphasized by Toffler above, a futurist works not as a fortune teller or soothsayer who becomes the invisible medium of the universe.

Artificial intelligence

We can widen our discussion about future affairs and forecasting, but this brief introduction just wants to convey a number of things related to the importance of the future, which -- according to the Kung Fu Panda film -- is a mystery; and according to Doris Day in the song "Que Sera Sera", "The future is not ours to see".

We call on Toffler again for two reasons. First, because he looks ahead based on strong trends that are believed to play a dominant role in the future. Second, as expressed in the first quote above, there is an important connection to what modern people face today in welcoming the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

In The Third Wave, Toffler says the technology that will be dominant in the third wave era is aviation and space exploration, telecommunications and data processing, biotechnology and genetic engineering as well as nuclear and renewable energy, with microelectronics as the main buffer. Industry 4.0 will be characterized, among other things, by artificial intelligence (AI), robotics and three-dimensional printing. Beyond that, there are developments we are already familiar with, such as big data, the internet of things and machine learning.

One consequence of the arrival of the new age with this latest technology is "the ability to become lifelong learners." This requires that education must be self-disrupting, in the sense that it is not merely a channel for knowledge that changes rapidly, but also as an institution that is able to make its students lifelong learners.

This has something to do with changes in the orientation of Kompas’ Year-End Report, which has been a tradition for years. Thus far, the year-end report has been dominated by kaleidoscopic characteristics, flashbacks.

This tradition over the years is not without meaning and benefit. Precisely because humans can fall repeatedly, while donkeys do so only once, and as the French expression goes, l\'histoire se répète (history repeats itself), year-end reports with flashbacks can be a reminder.

However, remaining stuck in nostalgia for too long is not wise. A number of recent developments underline this. For one, information tends to be cloudy: complex, puzzling, confusing, and often fake. Hoaxes are making the rounds. This is really worrying, and the general public needs guidance in this matter.

In this situation Kompas – living up to its name – must give direction, be a torch in the dark. Without pretending to be a futurist, Kompas wants to change the orientation of its year-end reports by continuing to provide space for yesterday but also giving readers an idea about tomorrow.

For that purpose, at the end of 2018, Kompas will publish articles on a number of topics of future-looking character, at least looking ahead to 2019.

The genre of looking at tomorrow is not new. Toward the end of the year, around the end of November, British magazine The Economist launches its annual edition, this time called "The World in 2019". As in previous editions, analysis in the format of this magazine feature world leaders predicted to appear on the main political stage, regional security, as well as other crucial issues, such as global warming.

Of course, paradigm changes require time to reorient oneself, but the decision to change is based on the belief that looking forward to the future gives birth to a new attitude, namely a proactive attitude, without any pretense of fortune telling.

A proactive attitude of riding the wave requires the supply of knowledge, data and analytical skills that in the present era may require machine learning.

In Indonesia, looking forward to 2019 also means looking at the presidential election and general election as the main topic, with all its dynamics, as well as the country’s economic prospects amid global economic turmoil. It is in this critical situation that Kompas wants to test itself to be able to become a guide and provide aufklarung (enlightenment) to its readers and audience.