Drought-Affected Areas Expanding, Accurate Stock Map Needed

KOMPAS/BAHANA PATRIA GUPTA

The bed of the Bengawan Solo River has emerged as a result of the prolonged drought in Dukuhkembar village of Dukun district, Gresik regency, East Java, as seen on Sunday (13/10/2019). Local residents say that this is the first time the riverbed has been exposed so that they are able to cross the river on foot.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The prolonged drought is seen to disrupt food production. Planting has been delayed and  disrupted, while the total harvest area and crop yields have been reduced. The government therefore needs to map out rice stocks accurately to anticipate any potential disruptions during the planting season, especially from the yearend to early 2020.

A number of farmers, farmers groups, livestock breeders, mill owners, traders and regional administrations in West Java, Central Java, East Java and South Sulawesi that Kompas met from last Wednesday to Sunday said that the drought had caused a reduction in harvest area and productivity and incurred losses for producers.

According to Agriculture Ministry data, a total 264,968 hectares (ha) of paddy fields were plagued by drought from January to early October 2019, of which 70,201 ha experienced harvest failures. The figures were higher than the drought impacts in January-October 2018, which affected 180,880 ha of paddy fields with 38,455 ha failing to produce a harvest.

The harvest area and crop yield have reduced. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) records show that 8.99 million ha of paddy fields were harvested in January-September, a decrease from 9.53 million ha during the same period last year. Rice production in January-September also declined from 28.48 million tons in 2018 to 26.91 tons in 2019.

KOMPAS/SAIFUL RIJAL YUNUS

Mesirante, 50, weeds his rice fields on Wednesday (11/9/2019) in South Konawe, Southeast Sulawesi. Hundreds of hectares of rice fields in the region are threatened with harvest failures due to the severe drought, with local farmers hoping for the rains to come soon, amidst the irrigation water shortage.

Indonesian Agricultural Economics Association advisory council chairman Bayu Krisnamurthi said that the impact of the drought on food production should not be trivialized.

“The government and food sector businesses should consolidate in the short term, as it is not enough to monitor the (rice) stock of Perum Bulog, which only constitutes 8-9 percent of the rice supply and the stock of the Cipinang Central Rice Market,” he said, referring to the state-run logistics company.

Consolidation should occur in maintaining objective data on unhusked rice and rice stocks, including the rice stock of traders and at private warehouses. The government and businesses should then map out the national stock of unhusked rice and rice. This would help identify those regions that have a rice surplus and those with a rice deficit.

Rice deficit regions should immediately receive a supply from the nearest surplus area. The decision to import was a last resort, in the event that the national rice stock faced a shortage.

The government must learn from 2015 and 2017, when inaccurate food data led to confusion in decision-making, including the extreme delay in deciding to import rice. Rice imports then arrived during the harvest season, causing the market price of rice to fluctuate.

According to BPS production statistics deputy M. Habibullah, the crop yield projection for October-December 2019 were pending rice field area verification from the Agrarian and Spatial Planning Ministry/National Land Agency (BPN).

Since last year, the government has been applying the sample area framework (KSA) to calculate rice production. This method is believed to be more accurate in observing conditions in the field, compared to the previous method of visual observation. According to BPS production statistics deputy M. Habibullah, the crop yield projection for October-December 2019 were pending rice field area verification from the Agrarian and Spatial Planning Ministry/National Land Agency (BPN).

No worries

Food Resilience Agency head Agung Hendriadi of the Agriculture Ministry said that the rice stock would be sufficient to meet demand until March 2020. “As an indicator, the Bulog (rice) stock currently total around 2.5 million tons. Its daily absorption is 3,000-4,000 tons while the daily rice distribution is 2,000-3,000 tons. This means that the stock balance is being maintained. Besides, no province has requested market operations [intervention] to date,” he said.

In a bid to mitigate the drought impact in January-March 2020, said Agung, the Agriculture Ministry had planted 1 million ha of rice in September. The Food Resilience Agency had also targeted planting 1 million ha per month from October to December.

KOMPAS/PRIYOMBODO

Workers unload sacks of rice from Madiun, East Java, at Kebayoran Lama Market in South Jakarta, Monday (14/10/2019). The government is optimistic that it has sufficient rice stock to meet demand for the next few months, despite the prolonged drought that has affected rice production this year.

“We have identified regions with low rainfall for dry rice cultivation. It is projected that the 1 million ha planting area will produce 3 million tons of rice. This is above the national rice consumption average of 2.5 million tons per month,” said Agung.

Perum Bulog president director Budi Waseso said that the state-run logistics company had at least 1 million tons of rice stock at the end of March 2020. He expressed optimism that the current rice stock was sufficient to meet demand until the primary harvest in April 2020.

Earlier, Perum Bulog procurement director Bachtiar said that the absorption of domestic rice/unhusked rice would depend on non-Java centers that were unaffected by the drought. Bulog estimated that 1.15 million tons of the national rice reserve would be distributed for market operations and non-cash food aid in October-December.

KOMPAS/PRIYOMBODO

A worker hauls a sack of rice on Monday (14/10/2019) at Kebayoran Lama Market in South Jakarta. The rice was transported from Madiun, East Java.

.Food and agriculture coordination deputy Musdhalifah Machmud of the Coordinating Economy Minister’s office said that Bulog’s present stock was an improvement compared to 2017. Musdhalifah was optimistic that any potential shortfall in the rice stock could be anticipated through market operations using the national rice reserve that Perum Bulog managed. (JUD/MEL/IKI/XTI/BRO/GER/REN)