Designing a Strategy toward “Golden Indonesia 2045”
The history of Indonesia is one of a nation that wasted a golden opportunity in the 20th century.
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·4 minutes read
RIAN SEPTIANDI
Suharso Monoarfa
The history of Indonesia is one of a nation that wasted a golden opportunity in the 20th century. This is the conclusion of Anne Booth, a professor (Emeritus) of Economics at the SOAS University of London, England, in one of her books.
In the 1980s, Indonesia enjoyed a massive oil and gas surplus. In the 2000s, Indonesia was blessed with a sharp increase in commodity prices. However, after more than 30 years, Indonesia is still stuck as a middle-income country.
Indonesia now has one more opportunity in the form of a demographic bonus. It must take advantage of it. Success must be planned. The National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) is an institution that has a great responsibility in planning for success. Now, Bappenas is focusing on how to design the strategy toward “Golden Indonesia 2045”.
The year 2045, when Indonesia will celebrate its 100th anniversary of independence, is often called the golden Indonesia. In order to have a close look at the government\'s plans for the golden Indonesia, Kompas interviewed the chairman of Bappenas, Suharso Monoarfa, at the Bappenas office on Friday (11/29/2019). The following are excerpts from the interview, which lasted about 1.5 hours.
Question: Is there a special message from the chairman of Bappenas?
Answer: First, to restore the role and function of Bappenas as a clearing house. The plan was emphasized again by the President in a recent Cabinet meeting. Bappenas must be able to become a good conductor and be able to converge all the activities of ministries, institutions and local governments so that all efforts follow to the same goal according to the President\'s vision.
Such a strategy is important so that with a limited budget, development can be carried out efficiently and effectively. Second, how to improve the status of Indonesia as a middle-income country to a high-income country. Our expectation is that in 2020, we can move from a lower middle-income country to an upper-middle income country. Furthermore, in 2035 we hope to qualify as a high-income (developed) country. At that time, Indonesia\'s per capita income will reach between US$12,000-$13,000. At present, our per capita income is around $4,000.
RIAN SEPTIANDI
National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) head Suharso Monoarfa gestures when met by Kompas reporters at the Bappenas office, Jakarta, Friday (29/11/2019). Suharso plans to reform the bureaucratic system by promoting online work. He also added that it was necessary to restore the role of the Bappenas in accordance with President Jokowi\'s orders.
What are the requirements to achieve the target?
To achieve this, an average economic growth of 5.4-6 percent per year is needed. Based on the Bappenas simulation, from the input side, the effort is to increase the role of the manufacturing industry. At present, the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP (gross domestic product) is less than 20 percent. With a number of policies to be carried out, we expect its contribution to rise to 21-23 percent. We once reached 29 percent. For this reason, the manufacturing sector should grow at an average of 7 percent per year.
Second, construction. Maintaining the current growth rate of 6.1 percent, as it has been good enough. These two things will become the driving factor on the input side.
From the output side?
People’s purchasing power. Consumption must be maintained at 55 percent of GDP. Its growth must be maintained at an average of 5 percent per year. Then, investment must grow higher at about 7 percent a year. In the next five years, I will encourage investment first. This investment is to increase the manufacturing industry and import substitution while reducing the current account deficit.
If this scenario works, in 2035 we will become a high-income (developed) country, and in 2045 Indonesia\'s per capita income is estimated to increase to $23,000.
As the consequence, we have to pay for the delay by utilizing advanced technologies.
What kind of developed country?
Like Indonesia. There is no example. We are rich in natural resources, but we are late in improving the quality of human resources. As the consequence, we have to pay for the delay by utilizing advanced technologies.
At that point later, after 2035, new innovations will come from Indonesia. Because we are an archipelago, maritime country, we should be experts in the field of food technology, especially food sourced from maritime wealth. In addition, Indonesia must also be an expert in the field of energy and water technology. We must be good at it.
What is the planning agenda of Bappenas?
The National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) has five major agendas in preparing the 2019-2024 National Medium-Term Development Plan and the 2025-2045 National Long-Term Development Plan. It means the current five-year period will be the basis for Indonesia to leapfrog into a developed country. (KRN / LAS)
