Trump Ignites the Fire
Like "throwing fire into a haystack," that is what Trump did by ordering to kill the commander of the Al-Quds Brigade, the elite unit of the Revolutionary Guard of the Islamic Republic of Iran, General Qassem Soleimani.
U.S. President Donald Trump talks about the United States imposing fresh sanctions on Iran as Vice President Mike Pence looks on in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, U.S., June 24, 2019.
Like "throwing fire into a haystack," that is what Trump did by ordering to kill the commander of the Al-Quds Brigade, the elite unit of the Revolutionary Guard of the Islamic Republic of Iran, General Qassem Soleimani.
United States drone aircraft fired at a motorcade, in one of which Soleimani was on board while exiting Baghdad International Airport, Iraq, last Friday. What prompted US President Donald Trump to take a more determined step than his two predecessors, George W. Bush and Barack Obama? The two presidents were considering removing Soleimani, but the move was not taken after taking into consideration its impact, the consequences that would make the Middle East region increasingly unstable. Moreover, it will also increase the involvement of the US military, with the risk of losing the lives of many US soldiers.
Various theories have been raised in the media regarding Trump\'s decision. One of them tried to answer why only now he ordered to kill Soleimani. A year before Obama was reelected as president (2011), Trump said, "In an effort to be reelected, Obama will start a war with Iran." Is this "the way” Trump hopes to be reelected? Therefore, Trump needs to show his courage and assertiveness by getting rid of Soleimani, whom the US considers more dangerous than Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State (IS); because Soleimani can support the full power to the state. Soleimani has been seen the central figure in various events in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon and is responsible for the deaths of many US soldiers in the Middle East.
In this image released by the US Air Force, RQ-4 Global Hawk unmanned surveillance sits in a hangar on February 17, 2019, at Al Dhafra Air Base, United Arab Emirates. - The Pentagon confirmed on June 20, 2019, that Iranian forces shot down a US naval surveillance drone but insisted the aircraft was in international air space, not that of Iran. The RQ-4A Global Hawk drone was downed by an Iranian surface-to-air missile system while flying in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz, a US Central Command spokesman, Navy Captain Bill Urban, said in a statement. He said it happened at 23h35GMT, June 19.
Another theory is based on the "wag the dog" scenario, namely a term for a president who creates a crisis abroad to divert attention from shame in the country. Trump is preparing to face impeachment because he is seen as abusing power. The same thing was done by Bill Clinton in 1998 when he was caught in a sex scandal with Monica Lewinsky. In August 1998, when the scandal broke, Clinton ordered the attack on the Al-Shifa drug factory in Sudan. In December 1998, when facing impeachment, Clinton ordered an air strike against Iraq.
Whatever the theory, the death of Soleimani, "the most powerful general in the Middle East today", provoked various reactions. Trump\'s decision raised new tensions in the Middle East and the Gulf. Tehran immediately said it would reciprocate US actions. People in several Middle Eastern countries, including Iraq, feel relieved over the death of Soleimani, but the Iraqi parliament made a decision that the US withdraw its troops from Iraq. European countries, the allies of the US -- and also Indonesia, although not an ally, call on all parties to exercise restraint.
The European and Indonesian calls are understandable. The death of Soleimani is very meaningful for Iran. Soleimani as commander of the Quds Force occupied a very high position in Iran, only defeated by the ayatollahs. What will happen after the death of Soleimani? Various possibilities can occur if the opposing parties do not hold back: war, limited retaliation, chaos, or maybe just the opposite because of various considerations that nothing will happen. However, it is unlikely that nothing would happen considering the importance of Soleimani for Iran and he was killed at the hands of the "big devil" of the US, Iran\'s main enemy.
In this Sept. 18, 2016, file photo provided by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, center, attends a meeting in Tehran, Iran. Iraqi TV and three Iraqi officials said Friday, Jan. 3, 2020, that Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, has been killed in an airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport.
A new form of war
Possibly, even if there is retaliation from Iran, it will not be a frontal war like the 2003 Gulf War when the US invaded Iraq. For a long time Iran has opted for an asymmetrical approach in confrontation with the US. In a war like this, digital disruption can be one of the weapons. Experts say it is likely to be a kind of hidden conflict that is spreading across the regions and the world, where Iran is trying to surprise and attack enemies quickly, through hackers, proxy militias, or other indirect means (The Christian Science Monitor, 6/1/2020).
Although not yet comparable to Russia and China in cyber capabilities, Iran has shown an increase in the ability and willingness to use digital methods.
The cyber war has proven to be very attractive to Iran since a four-decade arms embargo has made its conventional military unable to keep up with the development of other countries\' strengths in Middle East and the Gulf. Although not yet comparable to Russia and China in cyber capabilities, Iran has shown an increase in the ability and willingness to use digital methods.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in November 2019, "Between 2009-2010 and 2019, and often through non-state proxies, such as the Iranian Cyber Army, Iran has invested heavily in developing and using cyber capabilities for propaganda, intelligence exploitation, and interference. "However, not only in conventional warfare, the US also has advantages in cyberspace. The Stuxnet virus, which is believed to be developed by the US and Israel, is capable of damaging Iran\'s nuclear program. Of course, this is a consideration for Iran if it chooses cyber war even though Iran has experience in 2012 that it managed to destroy data on at least 30,000 personal computers owned by Aramco, a Saudi Arabian oil company.
If Iran chooses limited retaliation, its form can vary. For example, an attack on US facilities in the Middle East: it could be the embassy, embassy staff, US citizens, or the US air force base, Al-Udeid, in Qatar, the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, the base of US forces in Kuwait.
More than one third of crude oil exports, around 21 million barrels every day, are transported by tankers through this strait. Through this strait, liquefied natural gas accounting for more than a quarter of the world\'s supply is shipped, mainly from Qatar.
It could also be the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the only entrance to the Persian Gulf, the waters which are the front yards of Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. The gulf covers an area of about 87,000 square miles with a maximum depth of 100 meters, and the narrowest point of the strait is 34 km. If this is done, it will disrupt global oil supplies. More than one third of crude oil exports, around 21 million barrels every day, are transported by tankers through this strait. Through this strait, liquefied natural gas accounting for more than a quarter of the world\'s supply is shipped, mainly from Qatar.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz also harms Iran because they cannot export oil, which is 90 percent through this strait. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain also use the strait for their oil exports. The closure of Hormuz Strait will have a wide impact. If it does not close Hormuz, Iran can also take advantage of its proxy in Lebanon, namely Hezbollah, to retaliate for US actions by attacking Israel; Iran too can attack US troops in Afghanistan and attack US military bases in Saudi Arabia or UAE, cyber warfare. Whatever the form of retaliation Iran might do, it will add to the insecurity of the world because of Trump\'s actions.
Proxy network
According to the ranking of world military power made by Global Firepower, the first rank is US and Iran ranks 14th, between Brazil and Pakistan. Iran has a nuclear program, but does not yet have nuclear weapons. They have a ballistic missile program, but do not have ballistic missiles which can reach out to the United States. Iran has good relations with Russia and China, but would the two countries be willing to be involved in a conflict with the US if that happened.
This is because of Iran\'s ability to fight using third parties, such as Shiite militias and rebel groups.
Despite losing the military strength to the US, according to a military think-tank study (The Guardian, 7/11/2019), Iran now has an effective military advantage over the US and its allies in the Middle East. This is because of Iran\'s ability to fight using third parties, such as Shiite militias and rebel groups.
In one of the most detailed assessments of Iran\'s strategies and doctrines throughout Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, IISS concluded that Iran\'s "third party capability" has become Tehran\'s preferred weapon. This is what other countries in the region do not have. It was revealed, Iran\'s network of influence is more important to Iran\'s strength than its ballistic missile program, nuclear program or conventional military forces (Iran has 523,000 active military personnel and 350,000 reserve personnel). Overall, the conventional military balance is still in favor of the United States and allies in the region. However, the balance of effective power now supports Iran.
The proxy power network removes geographical obstacles for Iran. For example, Iran is "present" through the Iraqi People\'s Mobilization Forces, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansarullah in Yemen, the Syrian National Front, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas. Hezbollah\'s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, once said the struggle in the region had one leader and that leader was the supreme leader of the Iranian Islamic Revolution.
From here it is clearly illustrated that the proxy network spreads in several countries in the Middle East and had begun to be built by Iran after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. After the revolution, Iran\'s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, began to build a network of non-state regimes. He called on the "oppressed people" in the world to unite, encouraged Shiites in the region to stand up against Western-backed rulers, and led his regime to work with non-state partners, especially Shia groups in Lebanon and Iraq (Becca Wasser and Ariane M Tabatabai, May 2019).
Iran strengthened its ties with these groups in the 1990s through the provision of training, weapons and money. The tactics for influencing differ from country to country. In Iraq, Tehran used rebels to attack US troops. In Syria, Al-Quds forces under Soleimani support regular Syrian forces to deal with US-backed multinational rebels. In Lebanon, Iran\'s relations with Hezbollah continue to develop. Iran has supplied rockets, anti-tank weapons and missiles to Hezbollah. More than that, it also strengthened Hezbollah by deploying 25,000 reserve personnel.
According to IISS, there is no country as active or effective as Iran in regional conflicts in modern times. The total cost incurred by Iran from its activities in Syria, Iraq and Yemen is US$16 billion. Meanwhile, Hezbollah receives US$700 million every year from Iran. After 9/11 and the US invasion of Afghanistan, Tehran began to maximize the use of its proxies. The goal is to undermine US influence in the region. Throughout the 2000s, Iran-backed forces expanded their influence in the main countries in the region and, at times, targeted US troops.
With this fact, is Trump still determined to move his army and war machine to attack Iran, turn the shadow war and the US-Iran economic war that has taken place for four decades into a real war? Anyone who still loves world peace does not want war to break out. War can create nothing but suffering. Weapons produce nothing, except death. War also does not produce peace. Except, Trump indeed wants to be recorded in history as the originator of World War III.
Trias Kuncahyono, Observer of International Problems of the Middle East Institute, Jakarta
