Reflection on the First 100 Days

KOMPAS/WAWAN H PRABOWO

President Joko Widodo (center left) and Vice President Ma\'ruf Amin (center right) pose with the new Cabinet on 23 Oct. 2019 on the front steps of Merdeka Palace in Central Jakarta.

Politics is about tradition. Every time a new administration is inaugurated, there is a tendency to evaluate its performance in the first 100 days. Despite President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s insistence that there will be no 100-day work program. The public still awaits policy breakthroughs in the first three months. In this case, politics is about expectation.

Other than about tradition and expectation, politics (public policy) is about execution. Despite the Indonesia Onward Cabinet’s work programs being continuations of those of the Working Cabinet, the government’s performance in the next five years will be highly determined by program executions in the first three months. As a matter of fact, it is not that the government does not care about its performance assessment in the first 100 days. The omnibus bills on taxation and job creation are seemingly the delivery targets in the first 100 days.

Meanwhile, external situations change rapidly. Many “black swans” are emerging, not only in economy. Geopolitical risks are increasing after US President Donald Trump ordered the assault that killed Iranian senior military officer Qassem Soleimani. The political tension had yet to die down when a new health risk emerged in the form of the new coronavirus, predicted to be more threatening than the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) viruses. The new coronavirus has overwhelmed any risk of Brexit, which was officially in effect on 31 Jan. 2020.

As political and health risks increase, the already-weakened global economy will receive even more hits. The global economic slowdown will continue. Eventually, economic and financial risks will increase.

As political and health risks increase, the already-weakened global economy will receive even more hits. The global economic slowdown will continue. Eventually, economic and financial risks will increase. A reflection on the government’s performance in the first 100 days must be placed in the context of these changes in the global environment.

Global risks

The emergence of various diseases created by viruses such as the 2019-nCoV, is among the implications of climate change. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report 2020 shows that the five highest risks in terms of probability rate are linked to environmental issues. In the past several years, environmental issues always rank first in the global risk map. We can expect that environmental risks will exacerbate economic risks.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the new coronavirus a global health emergency. It will have two main impacts on the global economy. First, the number of tourists from China will decrease. Second, global trade will be weakened, marked by declining export and import.

China has become the country with the largest tourism expenditure in the world. In the first semester of 2019, Chinese tourists contributed to 20 percent of tourists in Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, japan and Vietnam. Meanwhile, Chinese tourists contributed to 80 percent of tourists in Hong Kong. Indonesia is “lucky” to have 10 percent of its tourists being Chinese.

The next cycle of influence is in the trade sector. Throughout 2019, Indonesia’s non-oil-and-gas export to China reached US$25.85 billion, equal to 16.68 percent of the country’s total non-oil-and-gas export. In terms of import, China contributed to 29.95 percent of Indonesia’s total non-oil-and-gas import, which was worth US$44.57 billion. If the new coronavirus is not resolved soon, it will have a serious impact on trade.

Based on the latest risk fact, a reflection on the first 100 days of Jokowi’s second administration becomes highly relevant. At least four ministries are key in facing this uncertainty.

KEMENTERIAN LUAR NEGERI/ABI RAFDI AUFAR

Health workers spray disinfectant on Indonesian evacuees as they disembark from a plane on Sunday at Hang Nadim International Airport in Batam, the Riau Islands. As many as 238 Indonesians who were evacuated from Wuhan, China, transited at the airport before being transported to Natuna regency for a two-week quarantine to ensure that they are free of infection from the novel coronavirus.

First, the Trade Ministry must be focused in securing the non-oil-and-gas trade balance. In 2019. Indonesia’s trade suffers from a deficit of US$3.2 billion. Despite this being an improvement from the deficit of US$8.6 billion in 2018, the challenges will be harder moving forward. Indonesia must have other options if the new coronavirus continues to expand and trade with China slows down. Penetration to non-conventional markets such as Africa and the Middle East, other than Asia, must be increase. Cooperation with the Foreign Ministry must be strengthened.

Second, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry must be focused in resolving oil deficit. Throughout 2019, the oil and gas balance suffered from a deficit of US$9.34 billion. This was caused by a US$4-billion deficit in crude oil and a US$11.72-billion deficit in oil products. The solution is to accelerate the B-30 program towards B-50 or to reduce dependency on imported oil. Another solution is to acquire oil producers abroad. Cooperation with the State-Owned Enterprises Ministry must be carried out to explore this acquisition plan.

Without any real efforts in increasing the sector’s performance, there is risk that the economy will grow below 5 percent in 2020.

Third, the Industry Ministry must be focused in increasing productivity of domestic industries, especially the export-oriented ones. In the third quarter of 2019, the manufacture industry sector with a 19.62-percent contribution to gross domestic product grew only by 4.15 percent. The economic sector with the largest contribution is slowing down. Without any real efforts in increasing the sector’s performance, there is risk that the economy will grow below 5 percent in 2020.

The Industry Ministry is among the key ministries with a highly determinant role. President Jokowi must give his attention to this ministry. Unfortunately, this ministry has among the least breakthroughs in the first 100 days.

Fourth, the Manpower Ministry must be able to optimally create a labor ecosystem that supports the domestic industry competitiveness and attract foreign investors. This ministry must create a regulation framework, increase competence and protect labors’ interests.

The important thing is that a reflection of the first 100 days must be aimed at formulating policies to resolve fundamental problems, namely increasing productivity and domestic economy competitiveness amid an increasingly hostile environment. These four ministries will not be able to work alone. They must be given attention due to their highly strategic role.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

Prasetyantoko

The omnibus bills, as President Jokowi’s largest breakthroughs in his second administration, still leave behind two grand agendas, namely the phases of approval and implementation. If the first phase is linked to political support, the second one is determined by the quality of ministers. It is highly probable that, one the omnibus bills are approved into law, there will be a reassessment of the composition of competence-based ministers.

A Prasetyantoko, lecturer at Atma Jaya Catholic University Jakarta