Reviewing the Dynamics of Three-month Pilkada Postponement

Kompas/Heru Sri Kumoro

A motorist drives past a mural about elections on Jl Otto Iskandardinata in Tangerang municipality on Wednesday 25 March 2020.

After being adjourned for a week, the hearing between the House of Representatives, the government and general election organizers was followed up on Tuesday last week. The online meeting that lasted around three hours discussed three options for the implementation of regional elections (Pilkada) after the postponement previously announced by the General Elections Commission (KPU).

The Pilkada in 270 regions originally planned for 23 September 2020 was agreed to be postponed due to the outbreak of COVID-19. In the meeting, the three options presented by the KPU were 9 December 2020 as the first option, 17 March 2021 as the second and 29 September 2021 as the third.

However, there are some prerequisites to its implementation. Among the important ones is the issuance of a regulation in lieu of law (Perppu) at the end of April and the closing of the period of emergency response to COVID-19 transmission on 29 May 2020.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

The logos of political parties are displayed at the General Elections Commission (KPU) office, Jakarta, Wednesday (22/1/2020).

At the follow-up meeting, House Commission II finally approved the government proposal to postpone simultaneous Pilkada 2020 until 9 December 2020 or for around three months. Besides, it was also concluded that before the start of the phases of simultaneous Pilkada 2020, House Commission II, the home minister and the KPU will convene a working meeting. This will be held when the period of emergency response is over. Their agenda will concern Covid-19 pandemic management developments. At the same time, they will also monitor the preparedness of implementing the further phases of simultaneous Pilkada 2020.

Also read: Elections amid Covid-19 Pandemic Complicated and Expensive

The hearing was a continuation of the same meeting on 30 March. At the initial hearing, they agreed to postpone the Pilkada through a perppu, while also approving the transfer of Pilkada funds for Covid-19 epidemic control.

Home Minister Tito KarnavianBut the proposal was not the meeting’s final decision. One of the reasons put forward by some members of the HOUSE was that the previous hearing had already agreed to transfer the Pilkada budget. Another question brought up at the fellow-up meeting was the reason behind the government’s choice of 9 December 2020 as the date for Pilkada implementation.

A Commission II member from the National Awakening Party faction, Yaqut Cholil Qoumas, questioned the argument for the 9 December option. According to him, the government should have given a clear road map of the epidemic control. He described it as an important consideration to decide on the Pilkada option.

Yaqut then referred to three things that made him pessimistic about the possibility of rapidly controlling the Covid-19 epidemic. First, he made an assessment of weak leadership. An example is the presence of contradictory government policies. While one state institution allows app-based motorcycle taxi drivers to carry passengers, the other agency has issued a regulation banning them from doing so.

Second, medical authorities were deemed vulnerable, in view of the relatively unclear availability of personnel, self-protection equipment, hospital infrastructure and standard operating procedures. The other thing spotlighted was the lack of mutual trust between the public and the government.

KOMPAS/NINO CITRA ANUGRAHANTO

Nahdlatul Ulama GP Ansor youth group chairman Yaqut Cholil Qoumas

Tough debate

The discussion was getting tough as their views were divided. Part of the HOUSE membership was inclined toward the second option to hold the Pilkada in March 2021. The other part relatively tended more to consent to Pilkada implementation on 29 September 2021.

A Commission II member from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Johan Budi, said he proposed that the Pilkada be realized in March 2021. This is related to the ample room that should be allowed in order to issue a perppu. If the Pilkada is to take place in December 2020, the aspect to be reviewed is the very short time made available to the government to publish the perppu.

Also read: Covid-19 Pandemic and Lessons on Democracy

Moreover, the President only recently issued Presidential Decree No.12/ 2020 on the Declaration of the Non-natural Disaster of Covid-19 Transmission as National Disaster on Monday (13/4/2020).

Kompas/Heru Sri Kumoro

Chairperson of the General Election Commission Arief Budiman conveyed the achievements of the KPU in the 2019 elections and the planned 2020 elections in a reflection of the holding of 2019 concurrent elections and preparations for the holding of the 2020 simultaneous elections at the KPU Office, Jakarta, on Wednesday (22/1/2020).

Among the other HOUSE members who favored the third option was Cornelis from the PDI-P faction. He conveyed his opinion fairly briefly. Cornelis only suggested that the Pilkada be held in September 2021, for the reason of providing some relief for regional heads in their preparation of funds for Covid-19 epidemic control.

Kristiana Muki from the National Democratic Party faction spoke in the same tone. In her view, the third option should be the better choice so that the government can first of all be attentive to the pandemic problem.

Earlier, Tito explained that the government maintained the optimistic option to carry out the Pilkada by the end of 2020. But there was no detailed description yet of the aspect of Covid-19 epidemic management serving as the reason why the option was taken.

Tito said it would indeed be difficult to decide on any one option. This is because no countries are capable of determining when the epidemic will come to an end. Yet Tito made an assumption if later a vaccine and drug for Covid-19 could be created, the outbreak would also be finished.

Nonetheless, he also proposed that in the upcoming perppu it should be stipulated that in the event of any failure in its December 2020 implementation, the Pilkada must take place in 2021 at the latest.

KOMPAS/WAWAN H PRABOWO

People arrive at Pasar Lembang Terminal in Tangerang municipality, Banten, to purchase tickets for them to go to their hometowns on 28 March 2020. Despite the call for people to not participate in this year’s Idul Fitri exodus, many people insist on returning to their hometowns because they can no longer afford to stay in Greater Jakarta as the economy slows due to the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Long process

In fact, it takes a relatively long time to produce the vaccine of a newly emerging disease, which is one to two more years.

An epidemiologist and biostatistician of the Public Health Faculty of the University of Indonesia, Pandu Riono, stated this at an online discussion on Sunday (19/4/2020) themed ”Pilkada on 9 December 2020, Is It Possible?”. According to him, the one two years’ time can be reduced to around six months if scientists are united.

The problem, though, a vaccine is relatively hard to produce from an easily mutating virus. In this case, the creation of a vaccine should be done by searching for parts of the virus that can easily be identified by the body. Hopefully, the body will be able to make antibodies and ward off the virus properly. If this succeeds, there will be no infection. But the virus causing Covid-19 is relatively not easy to overcome.

This has not yet referred to the several models made by Pandu and his team. Of the three models with three interventions at the estimation of daily cases in Indonesia requiring hospital treatment, three curve peaks are formed from the beginning to the end of May 2020. Curve flattening only occurs in July 2020. Actually, if the Pilkada is to be organized on 9 December 2020, the further phase with physical interaction should start again in early June.

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO

Health workers talk to a taxi driver during rapid testing for COVID-19 at the Transportation Ministry in Jakarta on Monday (20/4/2020). As many as 200 drivers of taxis and other public transportation participated in the rapid testing to ensure the safety of the drivers, their families and passengers.

There are also very big differences involving the three interventions. With a low intervention (voluntary social distancing, limiting mass crowding), an estimated 60,000 cases will need hospital care from the first to the second week of May 2020.

At the moderate level of intervention (low coverage massive tests, mandatory social restrictions, school and business activity shutdowns), an estimated 30,000 casus will need hospital care in the second and third weeks of May 2020. Meanwhile, with a high intervention (high coverage massive tests and mandatory large-scale social restrictions /PSBB), an estimated 12,000 cases will need hospital care in the third and fourth weeks of May 2020.

If the local-scale PSBB is applied, predictably not all provinces will be able to solve the epidemic problem simultaneously.

Pandu noted that the PSBB currently enforced was still local in nature. In fact, what is needed is the PSBB of a national scale. This is due to the presence of the virus that knows no geographic borders. If the local-scale PSBB is applied, predictably not all provinces will be able to solve the epidemic problem simultaneously.

This is not to mention the mudik (homecoming exodus) activity. Pandu estimated that if this happened the Covid-19 epidemic would keep prevailing in successive waves. The government on 21 April already decided to ban mudik, especially for residents in the Covid-19 red zone, which is Greater Jakarta. The prohibition will be effectively enforced on 24 April, to be followed by the application of sanctions as of 7 May.

Kompas/Heru Sri Kumoro

A banner for an invitation not to nail a tree when putting up posters, especially posters of prospective mayors who will advance in the Election of Mayor of South Tangerang, are installed on Jalan Siliwangi, South Tangerang, on Tuesday (31/3/2020). The outbreak of Covid-19 meant that the simultaneous local elections planned for September 23, 2020 threatened to retreat.

In spite of that, the effectiveness of this ban still highly depends on the government’s capability of preparing technical details of the prohibition, massive and persuasive socialization so as to be accepted by society, firm sanctions and public preparedness to delay the exodus.

All these conditions make simultaneous Pilkada 2020 to be slated for 9 December 2020 in a precarious state. Even if it is carried out, and if the successive waves of the epidemic overwhelm the event, its simultaneity will reach the rock-bottom point.

Now the government has the final word. Will the government insist on determining the date of 9 December 2020 in the perppu on the Pilkada postponement? Let’s wait and see.