The Peak of the Pandemic is Difficult to Determine

KOMPAS/LUCKY PRANSISKA

One “leaf: of the Semanggi cloverleaf in Jakarta is virtually empty of traffic on Saturday (9/5/2020), the 30th day around of the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB).

The peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia is difficult to determine because there is no consistent pattern in the majority of provinces. Do not be too quick to conclude the coronavirus curve has flattened.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The peak period of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia cannot yet be determined because the rate of increase of new cases in the past week has fluctuated. The majority of provinces have not shown consistent patterns in the growth or reduction of confirmed cases. Therefore, any decision to make further policies related to the pandemic should be carefully made, including those related to the plan to ease the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB).

Screening issues are also still major obstacles in handling COVID-19 in Indonesia. The lack of testing and the slow process in issuing test results have led to the delay in the reporting of new cases by up to two weeks. This situation also becomes an obstacle in assessing the level of spread in real time.

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Government spokesman for the handling of COVID-19, Achmad Yurianto, said that the number of new confirmed cases reached 387 on Sunday, further increasing the total confirmed cases to 14,032 in the country. The total number of recovered patients also increased to 2,698 people, while the death toll increased to 973 people.

From May 2 to May 5, the number of new cases each day reached 292 cases, 349 cases, 395 cases and 484 cases, respectively. Then, on May 6 through May 8, the number of new cases decreased with 367 new cases on May 6, 338 cases on May 7 and 336 cases in May 8. However, on May 9, the number increased to 533 cases. Then, on Sunday, new cases fell again to 387 cases.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

A motorcyclist rides past a mural on strengthening solidarity in the fight against Covid-19 on Sunday (10/5/2020) in Pondok Aren, South Tangerang, Banten. South Tangerang and other regions in Indonesia have imposed the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) to halt the spread of Covid-19.

Transmission

According to Yurianto, the fluctuation in the figure occurred because there was no consistency in the increase or decline in a number of regions. Within a few days, the new cases were stagnant, but on other days the number of the new cases was quite significant.

"In all regions, a consistent pattern of increase in the new cases has not yet been formed so the growth of COVID-19 cases is still unpredictable. With such figures, we should be aware that the transmission of the disease still occurs in the community," Yurianto said on Sunday.

He stressed that if the number of new cases decreased in one province, it could be concluded that local residents had successfully worked together to suppress transmission. However, if the increase in the number of the new cases was still significant, he argued, it showed that the people had not fully complied with the government regulations to suppress transmission.

The target of at least 10,000 examinations per day has yet to be fulfilled.

Eijkman Oxford Clinical Research Unit biostatistics researcher Iqbal Elyazar believes that despite an increase in the testing capacity, the number of COVID-19 tests was still considered to be inadequate. "The target of at least 10,000 examinations per day has yet to be fulfilled," Iqbal said in a webinar.

Data from the Health Ministry\'s daily report analyzed by Iqbal showed that cases examined by molecular examination averaged fewer than 5,000 people per day. The largest number of examinations was recorded on April 11 and May 9, 2020, each of which was around 7,000.

According to data on worldometers.info, Indonesia has only examined 552 specimens per million people, the lowest in Asia. This number is smaller than the number in the Philippines at 1,439 people per million, Malaysia (7,573 people per million) and South Korea ((12,949 people per million).

Kompas/Hendra A Setyawan

A lone sedan drives down one section of the Jakarta Outer Ring Road (JORR) in Lebak Bulus, South Jakarta, on Sunday (10/5/2020). According to monitoring data from the Public Works and Housing Ministry on the implementation of the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in Greater Jakarta, the toll road has seen a 42-60 percent decline in traffic, with most vehicles on the road consisting of private cars and logistics vehicles. Private, logistics and health service vehicles are still permitted on toll roads and thoroughfares under the PSBB in Greater Jakarta.

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Do not rush

Long lines in examinations, according to Iqbal, also caused delays in the process and announcement of the results. "On average, it takes a week to two weeks before the examination results are announced. As a result, the data that is announced every day is not really new data. There is a lag since the infection is found, "he said.

He cited that some time ago it was stated that the transmission curve in Jakarta was flattening. However, if observed closely, there were 486 positive cases in Jakarta, with around 10 percent of the total cases lacking an explanation on the details of the examination.

"So we should not be too quick to say the new cases were flattening . We all hope so, but it must be supported with reliable data. Our daily infection rate is not in accordance with the real cases because there are delays," said Iqbal.

From the data reported by Laporcovid.19.org, which is based on a citizen reporting mechanism, results of the examinations were obtained only after 17 days due to the delay in taking samples. In addition, many residents also still face difficulties related to examinations.

In fact, according to reports in a number of regions, the average number of people under surveillance (ODP) and patients under surveillance (PDP) who died could be more than three times those who died with a confirmed status.

Because of limitations and delays in the examinations, many people died before being examined or before the molecular test results were obtained. In fact, according to reports in a number of regions, the average number of people under surveillance (ODP) and patients under surveillance (PDP) who died could be more than three times those who died with a confirmed status.

For example, in South Sulawesi, the number of people with a confirmed status who died totaled 47 people, while the number of PDPs and ODPs who died reached 101 people. In East Java, the people with a confirmed status who died reached 144 people while the number of ODPs and PDPs who died totaled 453 people.

So far the government announced that the COVID-19 death toll in Indonesia was only based on confirmed molecular tests. As a result, the death data in Indonesia can be considered underreported.

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Police officers manage traffic on KM 31 check cars on Sunday (10/5/2020) along the access road to the West Cikarang tollgate of the Jakarta-Cikampek toll road in Bekasi regency, West Java. The Jakarta Police are restricting vehicles from traveling in and out of Greater Jakarta during the mudik (exodus) ban as part of the government’s COVID-19 policy, although some modes of public transportation have been allowed to resume operations for certain people under specific conditions.

Spike in new cases

In Seoul, South Korea, the South Korean government was shocked by a surge in new cases as the country began easing social restrictions to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The new cases came after a 29-year-old man who tested positive transmitted the disease to 54 people. This figure is the highest spike in the past month. What happened in South Korea can be a subject of study for Indonesia as it relates to the discourse of some parties who proposed for easing the PSBB, or enforcing a partial lockdown.

"Carelessness can cause an explosion of the infection," Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon said on Saturday (9/5). From the results of tracking, the man visited five night clubs and bars in Itaewon, a nightlife center in Seoul, last weekend.

South Korean health authorities rushed to warn of a possible surge in cases after at least 7,200 people visited the five clubs and bars. Since that incident, Seoul city authorities have closed 2,100 nightclubs and bars. The Gyeonggi provincial government is following the steps of the Seoul city government to close nightclubs, clubs and bars.

"We must not lower our vigilance about preventing epidemics. We must always be vigilant at all times until this war is truly over, "South Korean President Moon Jae-in said.

According to the initial plan, the easing of the social restrictions will be continued with the reopening of schools in South Korea on May 13. However, South Korean Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said the government would reconsider it, waiting for the results of the examination of new cases at night clubs in the next two to three days. (AP/AFP/SA/AIK/FAI/MHD)