The 2010-2020 Fragile States Index ranks Indonesia among the 10 big countries that have made the most significant improvements. The Covid-19 epidemic poses a major challenge.
By
NIKOLAUS HARBOWO/Antony Lee
·4 minutes read
JAKARTA, KOMPAS — Indonesia ranks among the 10 countries whose resilience in the face of social, economic and political pressures has made the most significant improvements over the last decade. During Covid-19, effective policies are needed to mitigate the epidemic as well as its impacts so that Indonesia’s improved resilience can be sustained. Managing group grievance is one of the issues that require serious attention.
The 2020 Fragile States Index (FSI) ranks Indonesia 96th out of the 178 countries studied. The higher the rating, the better a country’s achievement is. Indonesia has scored 67.8 on a scale of 0-120. The lower the resilience score, the stronger the country is in facing pressures that could lead to a failed state.
The FSI report, which covers the decade from 2010 to 2020 and was launched in mid-May, ranks Indonesia seventh among countries that have made the most significant improvements. Indonesia has scored 15.3 points lower during the 10 years studied. The index measures the country’s resilience in economics, politics, social cohesion, public affairs and external pressures. However, the 2020 index does not include the impacts of Covid-19 as an indicator.
As a big country, Indonesia is not a bad country.
University of Indonesia sociologist Imam B. Prasodjo said on Tuesday (26/5/2020) when contacted from Jakarta, that Indonesia’s improved achievements in the FSI 2020 offered hope. Indonesia’s resilience has grown more than several countries in Southeast Asia and other regions that have nearly the same population, like India (68) and Brazil (75).
“As a big country, Indonesia is not a bad country. There is enough hope for the nation to reorganize and make further advances to become more democratic rather than centralistic,” said Imam.
Yet, the Covid-19 pandemic would definitely affect all indicators in the study, according to Imam. This was because a country’s policymaking capacity and accuracy were the parameters of each indicator.
“Nothing will have significant meaning unless this turmoil can be overcome properly. There must be an emergency plan to manage turmoil. Any error in decision-making or implementation could lead to ruin,” he said.
Meanwhile, political and international relations chairman Vidhyandika D. Perkasa of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Jakarta pointed out that the Covid-19 pandemic could weaken social resilience. This would occur in terms of the economy through mass layoffs as well as through the distortion of social norms as mutual suspicion grew.
In terms of political aspects, Covid-19 had given rise to increased public distrust of the government. As per his views, this was rooted in the confusing formulation and implementation of the Covid-19 policies that were proliferating, which could lead to civil disobedience.
The government’s challenge during the outbreak, therefore, was to maintain political, social and economic order, said Vidhyandika. Each policy must be evaluated and the law must be upheld. “Law enforcement is also a key to strengthening [public] order,” he added.
The FSI 2020 places Indonesia in the “warning” category (60-89.9). Countries scoring 90-120 fall under the “alert” category, while those scoring 30-59.9 belong to the “stable” category and scores of 0-29.9 belong to the “sustainable” category.
Of the 12 indicators studied in 2020, Indonesia showed improvement in nine indicators, worsened in two indicators and remained stagnant in the last indicator. The stagnant indicator is factionalized elite (7.1). One of the two indicators in which it has worsened is security apparatus, registering a decrease in score from 5.9 to 6.1.
The other worsening indicator is group grievance, which decreased from 7.3 to 7.4. The higher a country scores on a scale of 0-10, the more it has worsened. Indonesia has scored worse in group grievance since the index began in 2006, when it scored 6.3 in this indicator.
Indonesian Ombudsman member Adrianus Eliasta Meliala pointed to at least two factors that caused Indonesia to score high in group grievance. First was that public expectations continued to rise while the state was as yet unready to meet them. Second, it was slow to take action in resolving grievance.
Political communication and public information deputy IV Juri Ardiantoro of the Presidential Staff said that Indonesia had strong social capital to survive as a nation. Furthermore, Indonesia was a big country with diverse ethnicities, religions, races and cultures.
“In line with developments in society, the economy and politics, social dynamics arise in relation to [public] perception of as well as behavior towards state administration, with some people content and others dissatisfied,” said Juri.
The Covid-19 epidemic, added Juri, offered an opportunity for reconciliation and strengthening social capital. He opined that during the pandemic, all citizens could engage in social activities in the interest of their fellow countrymen.