Indonesia Moving Away from “Failed State” Status, Good News and a Wake-Up Call

KOMPAS/ANTONY LEE

The country with the best and worst developments in the 2010-2020 Vulnerable Country Index. This is seen on the fragilestatesindex.org online page.

Indonesia’s improved standing in the Fragile State Index 2020 gives us hope. However, the government’s Covid-19 mitigation efforts will contribute to the country’s resilience in avoiding becoming a “failed state”.

The Fragile State Index (FSI) 2020 illustrates the two faces of Indonesia. Hope has risen upon Indonesia’s inclusion in the top 10 countries that have improved most in the last decade in building resilience against social, economic and political pressures. However, the FSI indicators also show warning signs that must not be overlooked. Covid-19 mitigation and management will contribute to the country’s resilience in avoiding becoming a “failed state”.

Also read: Indonesia Keeps Improving

The FSI 2020, which was released in mid-May by the Fund for Peace (FFP), an American non-profit research institute, ranks Indonesia 96th out of the 178 countries studied. The higher a country’s rank, the better its resilience. Indonesia scored 67.8 overall on a scale of 0-120. The lower the score, the stronger a country’s resilience is in facing the pressures that could cause it to become a failed state.

The index assesses the condition of a state through indicators arranged under four major groupings: cohesion, economic, political and social. Each of these groupings comprises three indicators.

Grouped under economic indicators are economic decline, uneven economic development, and human flight and brain drain. Meanwhile, political indicators comprise state legitimacy, public services and human rights and rule of law.

Cohesion indicators comprise security apparatus, factionalized elites and group grievance, while social indicators comprise demographic pressures, refugees and IDPs (internally displaced persons), and external intervention.

Countries with scores between 90 and 120 are in the red category indicating “alert”.

With an aggregated score of 67.8, Indonesia is among the countries in the orange, “warning” category (60-89.9). Countries with scores between 90 and 120 are in the red category indicating “alert”. Those scoring 30-59.9 are in the green, “stable” category, while those scoring 0-29.9 are in the blue, “sustainable” category.

Indonesia has shown a positive trend since the index was launched in 2006. Indonesia’s index dipped from the previous year only once, in 2009, but has otherwise been on an upward trajectory toward improvement. In the 10-year FSI report covering 2010-2020, Indonesia ranks among the top 10 most-improved countries, ranking seventh and registering a decline in score of 16.3 points over 10 years.

The three most-improved countries in the past decade are Cuba, scoring 21.4 points lower, followed by Georgia (-20.6) and Uzbekistan (-19.7). Meanwhile, Libya, Syria and Mali are the three most-worsened countries in the past decade.

Finland again has the best score in the FSI 2020 with 14.6. This has ranked the Nordic country 178th out of 178 countries. Finland has been the most secure country in the world since 2013. In other words, it is the farthest from becoming a failed state.

KOMPAS/ANTONY LEE

Indonesia\'s position in the 2020 Vulnerable Countries Index as taken from the fragilestatesindex.org online page.

Indonesia scored in the 60s for the first time this year, which has resulted a change in its color code on the FSI’s Heat Map from dark yellow to bright yellow. This shows that Indonesia is approaching the bright green color code for stable countries.

Indonesia’s improving trend over the past decade is illustrated by an average annual improvement of 1.63 points. Once it scores below 60, ceteris paribus, Indonesia will rank among the stable countries in 5-6 years and move even farther away from becoming a failed state.

Among Southeast Asian countries on the FSI 2020, however, Indonesia remains less resilient than Vietnam (63.9), Malaysia (57.6), Brunei Darussalam (56.6) and Singapore (26.3). More effort is needed to catch up to these countries.

KOMPAS/ANTONY LEE

Map of the Vulnerable Countries Index of 2020. Taken from the fragilestatesindex.org online page.

Warning sign

The trend in each FSI indicator also shows a warning for Indonesia. Indonesia is improving in only nine out of the 12 indicators, worsening in two and stagnating in one. The stagnant indicator is factionalized elites with a scored of 7.1. The two worsening indicators are security apparatus, in which it declined in score from 5.9 to 6.1, and group grievance, declining from 7.3 to 7.4. On a scale of 0-10, the higher a score, the poorer a country has performed in that indicator.

Indonesia has fluctuated longitudinally in security apparatus from 6.2 to 5.9 in the past five years. The indicator assesses monopoly on the use of force, relationship between security and citizenry, force and arms.

There is still much room for improvement in this indicator, especially in relationship between security and citizenry.

There is still much room for improvement in this indicator, especially in relationship between security and citizenry. In the past few years, civilian groups have often pointed out the importance of maintaining civilian supremacy over the military as a mandate of the Reform Era, highlighting the increasing number of active military personnel and police officers taking public office.

Furthermore, civil groups have also urged the National Police to refrain from using force in managing public protests and demonstrations. This reflects on the way the police managed the protests against several bylaws at the House of Representatives in September 2019. The police have said that it prioritizes persuasive measures and has taken action against any policemen found to be using excessive force in riot control.

Indonesia has stagnated in factionalized elites but still scores high in the indicator, as well as in group grievance. Indonesia therefore needs to continue working extra hard to resolve the issues in these areas. Factionalized elites assesses representative leadership, identity, resource distribution, and equality and equity.

Kompas

Indicator forming the Vulnerable Country Index

Meanwhile, group grievance assesses post-conflict response, equality, divisions, and communal violence. Group grievance requires extra attention. Out of the 12 indicators, Indonesia shows continuous worsening performance in this indicator only. It has continued to improve in the 11 other indicators, despite fluctuating scores. Indonesia scored 6.3 in group grievance in 2006; it scored 7.4 this year.

Covid-19 pandemic

Despite its achievements in the FSI, the report also contains a warning that Indonesia still has a long path to becoming a stable and resilient country. The latest challenge for the country is in how the government and the people respond to the Covid-19 pandemic.

FFP executive director J.J. Messner de Latour said that the FSI 2020 did not assess the impacts of Covid-19. However, the index offered a perspective on how countries might respond to crises like the pandemic. A prominent example is how governments mobilize a collective response amid a high level of group grievance. De Latour expected next year’s FSI would be dominated by social, economic and political declines due to the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic (fragilestateindex.org, 10/5/2020).

Economic and political indicators (scores below 5) are the greatest contributors to Indonesia’s improvement in the FSI, and these surely will face Covid-19-related pressures. Meanwhile, as of early May 2020, government data showed that 1.7 million workers had lost their source of income due to layoffs and job loss.

In the social dimension, despite the high level of group grievance, community movements for social solidarity give hope for Indonesia. Residual divisions persist on social media from last year’s electoral politics. However, many are still voluntarily helping others, be it in donating goods, contributing manpower or ideas, neighbors are continuing to help one another. Ethnic, religious and racial identities have been brushed aside in the name of humanitarianism.

Kompas/Wawan H Prabowo

President Joko Widodo speaks with Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan while reviewing the readiness to apply the new normal standard procedure at the Hotel Indonesia traffic circle, Central Jakarta, Tuesday (26/5/2020). On that occasion, the President ensured the preparation for disciplinary implementation of large-scale social restrictions or PSBB by the Indonesian Military (TNI)/National Police (Polri).

If this social capital is managed well, the Covid-19 epidemic will present an opportunity for Indonesia to reduce group grievance. However, like a double-edged sword, the epidemic could also worsen group grievance, especially if natural resources are distributed inequitably during the crisis.

Therefore, all social assistance related to Covid-19 must be managed properly so those in need receive it. Potential mismanagement must be nipped in the bud to prevent public fury in response to injustices amid the current hardships. Moreover, the mitigation measures must be distributed fairly and equitably across social and regional boundaries.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s political resilience during the epidemic will be determined by the government balances the need to act quickly and efficiently in curbing Covid-19 transmission and the need to maintain democratic values. Policy consistency in Covid-19 management and public communication will greatly contribute to state legitimacy, as this influences public trust.

Can we ride through the epidemic and emerge as a stable country in the face of these pressures? We’ll just wait and see.