Beware of Surge in Poor Population

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO

Children cross a row of semi-permanent houses in a densely populated residential area in Muara Angke, Penjaringan, North Jakarta, on Thursday (16/1/2020).

JAKARTA, KOMPAS - The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on poverty in Indonesia is inevitable. The poverty rate is projected to further increase as more people become vulnerable to falling into poverty.

The poverty target of 6.5-7 percent in 2024 as stated in the National Medium-Term Development Plan, could be missed. Social protections will only be able to hold the pace of the increase in the poverty rate in Indonesia from being too sharp.

According to data provided by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the number of poor people in Indonesia reached a total of 24.79 million people or 9.22 percent of the population in September 2019. This figure is the lowest since 2016 during which the number of poor people totaled 39.3 million people or 17.75 percent of the population.

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The director of poverty reduction and social welfare at the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), Maliki, said in an virtual conference on the use of a planning and budgeting system based on an analysis of the socio-economic condition in coping with the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak (Sepakat) on poverty held in Jakarta on Wednesday that the poverty rate in Indonesia was projected to increase to between 9.7 percent and 10.2 percent or between 26.2 million and 27. 5 million people at the end 2020 .

Based on these estimates, there will be an additional 3.9 million poor people this year. The increase in poverty is calculated based on the projected economic growth of 1 percent to minus 0.4 percent this year.

KOMPAS/FRANSISKUS PATI HERIN

A child eats white rice in a former East Timor refugee housing complex in Oebelo, Kupang Regency, East Nusa Tenggara, on Friday (14/2/2020). Living below the poverty line causes children’s nutrition to not be fulfilled.

Vulnerability

The Covid-19 pandemic and large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) have caused an increase in the vulnerability to falling into poverty. People the middle class group have a 55 percent chance to become vulnerable to poverty, while the average chance of the poor people falling into chronically poor is 55 percent.

According data of the World Data Lab research released in May 2020, Indonesia ranked third as the country with the highest increase in poverty due to Covid-19, with an increase of three million people. India ranked first with an increase of 10 million people, followed by Nigeria, with an increase of 8 million people.

"The Covid-19 pandemic caused a shift in the socioeconomic status of the middle class to be vulnerable and from the poor to the chronically poor," Maliki said.

Based on World Data Lab research, the poor are on the poverty line, while the chronic poor are the group under the poor.

Also read : Fear of Impoverishment amid COVID-19

Vulnerable and poor groups that need attention are households with retired family heads, disabled and people with chronic diseases. In addition, it is important to pay attention to households with family heads who work in the informal and low-income sector. They must get social protection so as not to drop out of class.

Maliki added the pace of the increase in poverty could be reduced with a planning and budgeting system based on an analysis of the socio-economic conditions of the affected areas Covid-19. Social protection programs must use actual and accurate data for the program to be targeted.

KOMPAS/ERIKA KURNIA

A line of dozens of drivers, street vendors, workers at Depok Terminal to receive lunch assistance on Wednesday (15/4/2020). Assistance is provided by the social organization Aksi Cepat Tanggap (ACT) and the Indonesian Volunteer Society.

The Smeru Research Institute has said the socio-economic crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic must be handled holistically, starting from setting targets for aid, setting up target data collection mechanisms, to channeling aid.

Meanwhile, the Indonesian Center for Reform on Economics (Core) has projected that the number of people in the poverty line in Indonesia would increase by 5.1 million to 12.3 million people in the second quarter, 2020. This addition is based on people with severe, heavier, and very heavy risks.

National Development Planning Minister / Head of Bappenas, Suharso Monoarfa, said that alleviating people from poverty required a special approach. Regions are encouraged to strengthen evidence-based planning from the provincial to the village level in coping with the poverty.

The number of people in the poverty line in Indonesia would increase by 5.1 million to 12.3 million people in the second quarter, 2020.

Bappenas has implemented the Sepakat approach since 2018, which contains regional data with more than 300 indicators, ranging from health, employment, productive economy, regional fiscal, education, access to public services, to education. So far, Sepakat can only be used by 129 city / regency governments and seven provinces.

The head of the Regional Development Planning Agency of Pekalongan Regency, Yulian Akbar said, the Sepakat concept can effectively help the regional government in formulating data-based policies. Local governments do not need to create a new data entry because the data is already available.