Agriculture and Food 2020

The year 2020 began with the largest pandemic in recent history, exactly 100 years after the Spanish flu pandemic that killed more than 50 million people in 1918-1920.

Apart from the impact on health, the world is also worried about the big impact on agriculture that will cause a global food crisis (FAO 2020). In March-May 2020, news about global food crisis dominated news related to agriculture and food. In April, came the report The Global Report on Food Crisis 2020, the result of a study by 16 world organizations related to the "acute food crisis" that will afflict many countries in the world. In the same month, President Jokowi warned the Onward Cabinet regarding the threat of a food crisis in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Also read : Coronavirus and Food Alert

The President\'s warning has also become the basis for a program to increase national food production known as a food estate, especially in the former one-million hectare peatland project. Six ministries are directly involved in this major project: the Office of the Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister, the Agriculture Ministry, the State-Owned Enterprises Ministry, the Agrarian Affairs and Spatial Planning Ministry/National Land Agency, the Public Works and Housing Ministry and the Defense Ministry. The project was then expanded to North Sumatra and Papua with an area of about 2 million hectares.

Has the 2020 global food crisis finally come as warned by the FAO? In the article "Food Crisis 2020" (DA Santosa, Kompas 21/4/2020), the author predicts that the global food crisis will not occur. World cereal production 2019/2020 has actually reached a record high, totaling over 3 billion tons, far exceeding the production during the 2011/2012 global food crisis at 2.1 billion tons (FAS-USDA 2010-2020). Cereals are very important agricultural products which are used as staple food for almost all people on earth and the main raw material for animal feed.

Also read: Food Crisis in 2020

Food prices in the early days of the pandemic continued to decline. The world food price index reached its highest peak in January at 102.5 and continued to decline to 91.1 in May and after that it has increased again until now (FAO World Food Situation, December 2020). This condition is very different from the global food crisis of 2007-2008 and 2011 in which the World Food Index reached 225.8 (June 2008) and 240.1 (February 2011) which caused major political shocks in North Africa and Middle East and the fall of various regimes there, known as the Arab Spring.

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Farm workers carry dry unhulled rice in Karangsegar Village, Pebayuran District, Bekasi Regency, West Java, Tuesday (15/12/2020).

Agricultural growth and trade balance

What is the condition of agriculture in Indonesia? In the midst of an economic recession with contraction of 5.32 and 3.49 percent in quarters II and III-2020 (year-on-year) and a sharp decline in growth in four main sectors, namely the manufacturing, construction, trade and accommodation industries, the agricultural sector is the only one that is growing positively. The agricultural sector grew 0.02 percent in the first quarter and then increased to 2.19 and 2.15 percent in the second and third quarters (BPS 2020). Even though the growth was lower than the average in previous years, this achievement should still be appreciated.

Also read: Save the Food Producers

The agriculture trade balance also shows an encouraging figure. In the midst of the opinion that the pandemic is causing shocks to the world food logistics system and food producers withholding their products, what happens is the opposite. Indonesia\'s agricultural commodity exports actually increased sharply compared to the previous year. Exports grew from US$21.1 billion to $24.0 billion or 13.7 percent (January-October), which were dominated by oil palm plantation products.

The increase in exports was also followed by an increase in imports of agricultural products, but at a slower pace. During the January-October 2020 period, Indonesia enjoyed a trade surplus of agricultural commodities of $7.9 billion, higher than 2019 ($6.6 billion).

Also read: Integrated Partnerships Being Developed

There are no encouraging developments in the food crop sub-sector. Imports of non-plantation agricultural commodities actually increase every year and 2020 imports have reached their highest point in the last eight years, namely $11.8 billion. The deficit of the trade balance in this sub-sector reaches $9.7 billion (January-October 2020) (Ministry of Agriculture, 2020).

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Farmers plant rice in a rice field in Bulusari village, Sayung district, Demak regency, Central Java, on Monday (4/5/2020).

Farmer welfare

One of the simplest indicators to assess the farmer welfare is the farmer exchange rate (NTP). NTP is the ratio between the price index received by farmers from selling the products they produce and the price index paid by farmers for products they do not produce. The NTP had reached its highest point in the past six years in January 2020, namely 104.2, after which it decreased dramatically in the early days of the pandemic and reached its lowest point in May 2020 at 99.5. The average NTP after May 2020 was the lowest in the last six years (BPS 2014-2020).

Horticulture farmers\' NTP fell sharply from 105.2 in January to only 97.4 in September 2020 due to falling horticultural product prices in that period. Only in the last two months, the price of horticultural products has improved, and the NTP of horticulture farmers has increased.

Also read : Building Food Security

Farmers who suffer the most in 2020 are those engaged in the livestock sub-sector, with an average NTP until November 2020 of only 98.0, much lower than in the last five years which was in the lowest range of 105.5 and the highest of 110.2. The decline in the prices of various agricultural products in Indonesia is not the result of increased production, but rather due to reduced demand. The farmers who enjoy the highest level of welfare today are smallholder plantation crop farmers. Their NTP has jumped dramatically since June 2020.

Food evaluation 2020

The food condition in Indonesia is not much different from the world. Prices of staple foods, the sources of carbohydrates and protein, did not show significant fluctuation. The price of rice surged until May, but has since decreased until now. From the AB2TI survey results on 46 rice-production regencies, the price of harvested dry unhulled rice (GKP) at the farm level continues to increase from Rp 4,311 per kilogram (kg) in March to Rp 4,800 per kg in September, but after that it has decreased to Rp 4,483 per kg in November, much lower than in 2019 (Rp 4,950) and 2018 (Rp 5,208). The price of unhulled rice at the farmer level in 2020 has reached its lowest point than in previous years, indicating a decline in the welfare of rice farmers.

Rice production in 2020 is likely to be the same as 2019. Bulog\'s latest stock of 1.06 million tons is dominated by domestic rice amounting to 0.66 million tons (Bulog, 17/12/2020). Although Bulog\'s stock is below the ideal stock for the end of the year at 1.5 million tons, the stock is still safe enough so that Indonesia does not need to import rice. It is estimated that the 2021 harvest will begin in February and reach its peak in March.

Also read : Agricultural Challenges 2019-2024

SUMBER: GABUNGAN PENGUSAHA KELAPA SAWIT INDONESIA

The export performance of Indonesian palm oil products during the first semester of 2020.

If the climate in 2021 is the same as in 2020, it is certain that rice production will increase and Indonesia will experience a significant rice surplus. If that happens, three years in a row Indonesia will not need to import rice. The government must really take advantage of this situation so that this forecast can be realized.

Imports of food commodities and the concern that Indonesia is experiencing a food crisis led to the idea of developing a food estate. The continuous failure of the food estate so far is due to its development denying the very basic scientific principles (DA Santosa, "National Food Barn", Kompas 3/8/2020). There are four pillars of food development which, if the four are not fulfilled, will certainly end in failure. The four pillars are land and agro-climate feasibility, infrastructure feasibility, cultivation and technology feasibility and social and economic viability. None of the food estate projects implemented in the last 25 years have fulfilled these four pillars.

Also read: National Food Barn

Actually intensification of agriculture and use of dry land is still promising to answer the problem of food availability in the future. From the results of a large-scale study at PT SHS Sukamandi, led by PT Rajawali Nusantara Indonesia, it shows clearly that rice production can still be increased by up to 30 percent through technical changes in cultivation and management. Replication of this pattern is estimated to be able to increase national rice production by 10-15 percent.

In 2020, Indonesia will get benefit from the development of international food trade which is growing positively. The world vegetable oil price index continues to increase sharply after experiencing a decline at the beginning of the year. The price index increased from 77.8 in May to 121.9 in November 2020 or 56.7 percent. It is hoped that this high vegetable oil price increase will truly be felt by oil palm farmers in Indonesia.

Last, improving the welfare of farmers is the most important key in agriculture development. So far, farmers have only become the object of various policies and programs. Government policies, especially food, are too heavy on consumers so that the price at the farm level often falls and harms producers. The idea of a farmer corporation will solve only a few of these problems.

Kompas

Dwi Andreas Santosa

Guaranteeing prices at the farm level, protecting farmers from an unfair international trade system, shifting input subsidies to direct transfers and increasing farmer sovereignty are the answers to bring dignity to our small farmers. From the experiences of several countries that have developed from poor countries to developed countries, guaranteeing and increasing the welfare of farmers is the key to driving rapid national economic growth. Let us honor the farmers.

Dwi Andreas Santosa, Professor and Head of the Center for Biotechnology at IPB University and Chairperson of the Association of Indonesian Seed Banks and Farmers Technology (AB2TI).