Extension of Power and Statesmanship
Jokowi's firmness is absolutely needed to silence the noise and restore trust. This is the path of a model statesman that Jokowi should choose and follow. He must be a statesman.
Despite its collapse due to the pandemic, this country is working hard to recover, even stand stronger, by preparing a development legacy for the future.
However, all that hard work could have fallen apart if the current administration had forced an extension to the term of office. Therefore, there has been relief after President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo confirmed that the general election will take place as scheduled on 14 Feb. 2024 (Kompas, 11/4/2022).
At least this will stop the polemic over – even opposition against – discussions to postpone the elections, extend the current presidential term or extend the presidential term to three terms. Jokowi’s affirmation is important, but it is more important to understand the political dynamics behind it, considering that this is a substantial matter, and not just because of public pressure and the current situation.
Without wanting to add to the controversy, this article attempts to reflect on the emerging dynamics related to the proposed extension of presidential power.
Fulfilling promises
In his second term from 2019 to 2024, Jokowi promised five development visions for the country: transforming the economy, boosting infrastructure, developing human resources, reforming the bureaucracy and simplifying licensing to drive investment, as well as relocating the nation’s capital city (IKN) from Jakarta to Nusantara (East Kalimantan). Jokowi has been working hard to fulfill his promises, despite the coronavirus pandemic.
First, the economy was stable at around 5 percent before it plunged to minus 2.07 percent as an impact of the pandemic. It then increased to 3.69 percent in 2021 and is projected to continue to grow in the following years. Poverty is the same. After declining to a single digit for the first time in history, the poverty rate worsened during the pandemic before finally returning to pre-pandemic levels (Statistics Indonesia/BPS, 2022).
Second, until 2020, infrastructure development has installed the form of 33 toll roads, 30 “sea toll” routes, 106 ports, and 39 air routes (Presidential Office/KSP, 2021). Connectivity has also increased. From 2014 to 2017, the number of air passengers grew 6.5 percent, train passengers 8.9 percent, border crossings 1.3 percent and Damri bus passengers 1.7 percent. Land and sea freight also grew 3 percent, while air freight grew 2.7 percent (Kompas, 20/10/2018).
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Third is human development. Although this is not easy, a number of indicators showed improvement. National Health Insurance membership grew to 226 million people and 96 million poor people with government facilities to become the largest public health insurance in the world (BP-JSK, 2021). Until 2021, the Family Hope Program has assisted 10 million beneficiary households, while the cash aid program has supported 9.9 million families (Social Affairs Ministry, 2021). The Village Funds direct cash assistance and Basic Food Card programs have respectively supported the lives of 5.62 million and 17.2 million families.
As many as 28.8 million and 60.1 million people respectively benefit from the rice social assistance and subsidized electricity, while 26,000 street vendors received business assistance (Finance Ministry, 2021).
In education, the gross national enrollment rate increased at all levels from elementary to senior high school (BPS, 2021). The Smart Indonesia program has facilitated 10.3 million elementary school students, 4.3 million junior high school students, 1.3 million senior high school students and 1.8 million vocational students. The Indonesia Smart Campus Card has helped 474,000 students in odd-numbered semesters (first half of an academic year) and 324,000 students in even-numbered semesters (second half of an academic year). (education ministry, 2021). The percentage of qualified teachers also increased in the 2020/2021 Academic Year compared to the figures in 2019/2020 (BPS, 2021).
Fourth, in bureaucratic reform, the government has been successful in implementing the Government Agency Performance Accountability System (SAKIP) and developing the Integrity Zone (ZI). In 2020, ministries/agencies scored 95.24 percent in the SAKIP, provincial administrations 97.06 percent and regencies/municipalities 63.9 percent.
Pilot ZI areas increased from 2,239 regions (2019) to 3,691 regions (2020), with 681 Corruption-Free Regions and 82 Clean Bureaucracy Regions. The National Public Complaints Management System-Public Aspirations and Complaints Online Service (SP4N-LAPOR!) has integrated 34 ministries, 100 state institutions, and 523 regional administrations (Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform Ministry, 2021).
Fifth, in the last five years, Indonesia’s ease of doing business (EODB) ranking has continued to increase because of regulatory improvements, simplified procedures, accelerated services delivery time, public education and service quality improvement through the Online Single Submission (OSS) system. Indonesia's EODB ranking among 190 countries has risen in 2016-2020 from 106th to 73rd (World Bank, 2020). The goal is to rank 40th in the world as soon as possible (Office of the Coordinating Economic Minister, 2019).
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Finally, although there remain a number of controversial issues and delays because of the pandemic, the IKN relocation plan has finally been implemented. Announced to the public on 16 Aug. 2019, the IKN Law was enacted on 18 Jan. 2022 and the IKN Authority Head and Deputy Head were appointed on 10 March 2022. The IKN relocation project is the largest such project in history. Currently, work is accelerating on the physical construction and civil service (ASN) relocation scheme.
These data and figures are proof of Jokowi's hard work in trying to fulfill his promises, emerge from the pandemic, and lay a solid foundation to achieve his goals towards a developed country. However, it was feared that all of these achievements would be lost if the discourse on extending the presidential term became a reality.
Extension of power
According to the records, the discourse on extending Jokowi's presidential term has been ongoing for quite long time. The essence of this discourse is to postpone the 2024 general election, extend the current presidential term, and extend the presidential term from two to three five-year terms by amending the Constitution to make it possible, with all the attendant reasons and arguments.
The discourse on "three terms for Jokowi" first emerged in June 2021 (Kompas, 19/6/2021). Two months later, news circulated on social media that the 2024 general election would be postponed until 2027, which was immediately denied by House of Representatives (DPR) Commission II. Similar news again made the rounds in January 2022, when Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said the business world wanted the elections postponed so the post-pandemic economy could recover more quickly (Kompas, 10/1/2022).
A month later, general chairperson of the Indonesian Solidarity Party, Giring Ganesha, withdrew his plan to run in the 2024 presidential election because he believed the people still wanted Jokowi (Kompas, 24/2/2022). Then, a number of politicians, such as Airlangga Hartarto (Golkar), Zulkifli Hasan (PAN) and Muhaimin Iskandar (PKB), openly suggested that the 2024 elections be postponed.
According to Nahdlatul Ulama central board (PBNU) chairman Yahya Cholil Staquf, the idea to postpone the election made sense (Kompas, 28/2/2022), while Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Pandjaitan claimed to have big data showing that 110 million voters supported the idea (Kompas, 15/3/ 2022).
The proposal was rejected by six House factions, four from the ruling coalition (PDI-P, PPP, Gerindra and Nasdem) and two from the opposition camp (Democratic Party and PKS), which issued a joint statement that they were adhering to the constitutionally mandated two presidential terms (Kompas, 2/3/2022).
Muhammadiyah also opposed the proposal, firmly stating that postponing the general elections had no clear legal basis and would only cause chaos. A number of civil society organizations also rejected the idea to extend the presidential term.
In politics, raising the idea to extend the term of a head of state – and rejecting it rejection – is actually commonplace. But why should it concern us? The motivation for extending power could be anything: from wanting to secure a legacy, ensuring a peaceful life, to protecting one's cronies. We don't know what's really in Jokowi's heart, let alone the hearts of those who raised the idea in the first place. We can only use logic and guess that it is because they will also benefit from extending Jokowi’s presidency.
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> Constitution is Nation’s Social Contract
> Curbing Political Escalation
Therefore, it is understandable that William Liddle suggests in his article, “Sesepuh Bangsa” (The nation’s fathers), that President Jokowi is gathering his political might for amending the Constitution to extend his presidential term (Kompas, 4/4/2022). However, whatever the intention, what is clear is that he would be harming the young democracy that has been developed since the reform era.
We remember that the New Order regime continued for 32 years because of a need for competent and experienced leaders to carry out its development programs. In the end, demands surfaced to limit the presidential term of office, because without restrictions, power becomes corrupt and arbitrary.
The recent concerns have arisen because the same reason was used again: from the state of emergency due to the pandemic, the need to maintain a legacy of development, and to competence. And they’re all made up: The pandemic is under control, the development legacy has been institutionalized through policies and plans, and there is certain to be someone as great, or even greater, to lead this country.
Why did the discourse of an extension to the presidential term meet with strong resistance? Because the political reality is always related to action and discourse. While significant political action had not yet taken place (e.g. building an alliance of House factions to amend the Constitution), public discourse was still dominated by the issue of extending the presidential term. Therefore, in order to maintain democracy, this discourse must be addressed firmly. Otherwise, it could lend legitimacy for the House or anyone with an interest in pushing and passing this idea, even in a way that may appear democratic.
In her column “The Danger of Covert Authoritarianism” (Kompas, 4/4/2022), Bivitri Susanti emphasizes that the ambition to perpetuate power must be prevented and stopped. Unlimited power not only gave birth to an authoritarian government, but also turned it into a servant of the oligarchy. This will disrupt and diminish modern democracy because it creates political uncertainty and robs the people of their rights and sovereignty.
Therefore, if the idea of extending the presidential term, whether by adding another five-year term, extending the current term beyond five years, or postponing the elections, progresses from mere discourse into a political action, what is certain is that it will not only cause disruption, but is also very likely to trigger riots to destroy order in this country. This is particularly so in today's polarized society.
So, what to do?
In "Memikirkan Warisan Jokowi” (Thoughts on Jokowi's legacy, Kompas, 15/9/2021), I emphasize that the most meaningful legacy Jokowi can leave for this nation is to achieve the five visions of 2019-2024, handle the pandemic, and set up a strong foundation for the IKN relocation as part of the energy transition (Kompas, 15/9/2021).
Therefore, I believe that if the extension of the presidential term is forced through, not only will all of Jokowi's achievements and successes be tarnished, the legacy he aspires to will be ruined because many tasks will be left incomplete. Instead of being remembered as the “father” that laid the foundation for progress, he could even be remembered on the wrong side of history.
So, President Jokowi's firm and clear statement has determined two key matters. First, the power elite to extrapolate Jokowi's statement as a reminder to be aware that power has its limits. The national interest is paramount, and the Constitution must be upheld.
This is the path of a model statesman that Jokowi should choose and follow. He must be a statesman, not just a president who is good at development.
There should be no other attempts to mobilize discourse, let alone action, to try and extend power through any means, including ways that appear to be democratic. The constitutional mandate, the reforms for democratization and the various development achievements that have been made so far are too valuable to be tarnished. The future of our country must be safeguarded, and limiting power is key to upholding democracy.
Second is a message for Jokowi himself. He must firmly state that he will step down in 2024. It is not enough for him just to say that the proposed presidential extension is akin to a slap in the face (Kompas, 2/12/2019), or to express his disinterest (Kompas, 25/2/2022) or to prohibit ministers from saying “three terms” (Kompas, 6/4/2022). His statement that he will always follow the Constitution (Kompas, 30/3/2022) is also inadequate, due to the fact that the House is controlled by a coalition of parties.
Therefore, his statement that the elections will be held according to schedule must also be emphasized as a signal and its sincerity proven by closing all doors to the progress or reemergence of the discourse on extending power, as well as asking all aides (ministers) and the elite to implement it.
Jokowi's firmness is absolutely needed to silence the noise and restore trust. This is the path of a model statesman that Jokowi should choose and follow. He must be a statesman, not just a president who is good at development. Because for statesmen, power is indeed only a means to do good, and not a goal.
Yanuar Nugroho
Yanuar Nugroho, Lecturer at Driyarkara School of Philosophy (STF); founder of CIPG and NALAR Institute; visiting senior fellow at ISEAS, Singapore; Presidential Staff Deputy Head II, 2015-2019
This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswo.
