Potential Open Conflict in the South China Sea
The contentious rivalry between the US and China in the South China Sea, which is far from conducive, has raised concerns about the potential for open conflict in the region.
The waters of the South China Sea have always been a source of concern for security and stability in Southeast Asia.
In 1947, China unilaterally declared these waters as its territory and marked them with the infamous nine-dash line. This action led to protests from the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam, all of whom also claim parts of the South China Sea as their own.
Spanning over 3.685 million square kilometers, extending from the southwest to the northeast, and bordered by China and Taiwan to the north, the Philippines to the west, Malaysia and Brunei to the west and south and Vietnam to the east, the South China Sea, resembling a "U" shape, holds significant strategic importance.
It serves as the shortest shipping route connecting the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, facilitating the connection between East Asia, India, West Asia, Europe and Africa. Consequently, it has become a preferred route for both commercial and military fleets in their voyages.
Also read:
> Regional Instability Threats
> Indonesia Firmly Rejects China’s Claim
Additionally, the South China Sea holds significant potential for valuable natural resources, prompting China to aggressively construct artificial islands and deploy military equipment in the region. China has also dispatched fishing vessels, operating as a maritime militia, to waters claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines and even as far as the North Natuna Sea within Indonesia's exclusive economic zones (EEZ), as a means to assert its claims in the South China Sea.
China's nine-dash line claim is solely based on traditional fishing grounds, which is not in accordance with international legal norms, specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982).
This claim is disputed by Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei Darussala and Taiwan, but China has chosen to disregard these objections. Furthermore, China has ignored the 2016 ruling by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, which declared China lacks a legal basis for claiming the waters of the South China Sea.
US Maneuvers
The situation in the South China Sea is growing increasingly complex as the United States, a non-claimant country, seeks to counter China's dominance by deploying warships under the pretext of freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs). Since the end of the Cold War, China and the US have entered a new phase of competition, reminiscent of a new style of the Cold War.
The contentious rivalry between the US and China in the South China Sea, which is far from conducive, has raised concerns about the potential for open conflict in the region. This is evident in the construction of naval bases both in the South China Sea and other locations across Southeast Asia. Naval bases serve as crucial military infrastructure to support operations and act as command, control and communication centers.
China has pursued such actions in the South China Sea by reclaiming clusters of reefs and atolls, including Subi, Fierry Cross, Mischief Reef and Woody Island in the Spratly Islands. These islands have now been transformed into formidable military bases.
In the Paracel Islands, China has even constructed a city spanning 1287.5 km, named Shansa, equipped with facilities resembling a major metropolis. According to media reports, China has also built a naval base in Cambodia's Sihanoukville province in the Gulf of Thailand. China's reach extends further with the establishment of military bases in Argentina, Myanmar, Tajikistan and Djibouti.
With robust economic support and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) spanning over 125 countries, China has emerged as a military and economic superpower. China's dominance raises uncertainties about security conditions in the Asia-Pacific region.
Also read:
> Indonesia, Myanmar and ASEAN
At any given moment, China possesses the capability to assert its will, and there is even the potential for an invasion of Taiwan. China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has conducted significant military exercises in both the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait in recent years. China's blockade of Taiwan, a country it regards as its province, during these military exercises serves as a demonstration of its discontent toward the US, which consistently supports Taiwan.
In August 2022, the PLA blockaded Taiwan at six points during a military exercise following the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, where she met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. In early April 2023, it was President Ing-wen's turn to visit the US and meet with the newly appointed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as a replacement for Pelosi. This visit once again angered China, which expressed its frustration by "locking down" Taiwan in a larger-scale military exercise than the previous year.
China's military readiness to carry out combat operations in the South China Sea, including the possibility of crossing the Taiwan Strait.
During the 2023 military exercise, the PLA deployed aircraft carriers along with various other types of warships. China conducted simulated attacks, resembling an assault on Taiwan. Chinese bombers launched missiles at designated targets. China tested the combat capabilities of the PLA in executing large-scale integrated military operations involving land, sea and air.
The seriousness of the military exercise is reflected in the statement made by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his inspection of the PLA. President Jinping called for the PLA to be prepared for actual warfare by "strengthening military training oriented towards real combat". This statement indicates China's military readiness to carry out combat operations in the South China Sea, including the possibility of crossing the Taiwan Strait.
US Military Bases
On the other hand, the US also frequently conducts military exercises in the South China Sea, as it did in collaboration with the Philippines and Australia just a day after China's military exercise in the Taiwan Strait. The US is also bolstering its military presence in the Philippines by establishing four military bases, one of which is located not far from Taiwan.
This move represents a new policy for the US since the closure of its naval base in Subic Bay and air base in Clark in 1992, as well as the naval base in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam, in 1972. Currently, the US maintains naval bases in Japan and Korea; a logistics base in Singapore; and a marine station in Darwin, Australia.
Therefore, the South China Sea is undeniably a potential hotspot for open conflict, capable of transforming into a war zone involving the US, China and Southeast Asian countries at any given moment. Furthermore, "encounters" between US and Chinese warships or fighter jets frequently occur in the region. For instance, US destroyers have been expelled from the Paracel Islands, and US aircraft carriers navigating the South China Sea are closely trailed by Chinese aircraft carriers.
Also read:
> ASEAN is Increasingly Important and Needed
On the other hand, China operates nuclear submarines equipped with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles capable of reaching distances of up to 10,000 km during patrols in the South China Sea.
It is believed US nuclear submarines also navigate the area, both independently and as part of carrier strike groups traveling to and from the Yokosuka base in Japan. Additionally, the US, in collaboration with the United Kingdom, has established the AUKUS defense pact (Australia, UK and US), which allows Australia to acquire the capability to manufacture nuclear submarines to counter China's expanding influence, extending even into the South Pacific.
"Code of Conduct" in the South China Sea
The CoC is expected to serve as a guide for the behavior of the claimant countries in the region.
The situation in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, which poses the risk of triggering a war, requires preventive efforts. Indonesia, as the current chair of ASEAN, is expected to continue its efforts to encourage ASEAN and China to finalize the Code of Conduct (CoC) in the South China Sea, which has been under discussion since 2002. The framework for the CoC was actually agreed upon in 2017, so it is now moving to the next stage of negotiating the technical substance of the CoC.
ASEAN, as an organization representing Southeast Asian nations, cannot directly address the disputes in the South China Sea since the disputes involve individual claimant countries. Although ASEAN does not have the authority to resolve ownership disputes in the South China Sea, the CoC is expected to serve as a guide for the behavior of the claimant countries in the region.
By doing so, the occurrence of armed conflicts in the South China Sea can be minimized. Meanwhile, in the Taiwan Strait, it is hoped China and the US will exercise restraint to avoid sliding into a path that would jeopardize world peace.
Marsetio
Marsetio, Professor of Defense Sciences at Indonesia Defense University and chief of staff of the Indonesian Navy from 2012 to 2015.
This article was translated by Tenggara Strategics.
