2024 Election Results and Changes in the Map of Political Power in Parliament

The balance of political power in parliament as a result of the 2024 elections is capital for improving Indonesian democracy.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Hasil Pemilu 2024 dan Perubahan Peta Kekuatan Politik di Parlemen

KOMPAS/YUNIADHI AGUNG

A pedestrian crosses a row of political party flags from participants of the 2004 General Election, which are installed along the road partition fence in front of the West Jakarta Train Station, on Friday (12/3/2004).

The vote acquisition election results 2024 changed the map of political power in parliament which for the last five years was controlled by the government coalition party. Instead of being dominated by the party supporting Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election, currently the combined strength of their rival political parties is able to match, or even be slightly stronger. If this constellation persists until 2029, Indonesia's democratization, which has recently been reported to be in decline, has the opportunity to return to progress according to expectations.

Based on the vote recapitulation 2024 Election results determined by the General Election Commission (KPU) in Jakarta, Wednesday (20/3/2024) evening, there are eight political parties that will go to Senayan, where members of the DPR took office, thanks to the vote acquisition that exceeded the parliamentary threshold, namely 4 percent of the total national valid votes. Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning Elections regulates the parliamentary threshold at 4 percent. Only political parties that pass this threshold will be included in the calculation of DPR seats.

The political parties that passed the threshold in the 2024 Election were the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle which won 25,387,279 or 16.72 percent of the total 151,796,631 valid national votes, the Golkar Party with 23,208,654 valid votes (15.28 percent), and the Gerindra Party with 20,071,708 valid votes (13.22 percent).

In addition to those three political parties, there is also the National Awakening Party which received 16,115,665 valid votes (10.61 percent), the Nasdem Party with 14,660,516 valid votes (9.66 percent), and the Justice and Prosperity Party which obtained 12,781,353 valid votes (8.42 percent). Following in the last two positions are the Democratic Party with 11,283,160 valid votes (7.43 percent) and the National Mandate Party which received 10,984,003 (7.24 percent).

Also read: End of Waiting for Prabowo Subianto

Of the eight political parties mentioned, four of them are supporters of the presidential candidate and running mate, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who won the 2024 Presidential Election. These four parties are the Gerindra Party, led by Prabowo, the Golkar Party, the Democrat Party, and PAN. When accumulated, these four parties gathered 43.17% of the votes, which will be translated into seats in the parliament. In the 2024-2029 period, there are 580 seats in the parliament.

Apart from Gerindra, Golkar, Democrat and PAN, four other political parties are the proponents of two rival candidate pairs Prabowo-Gibran. PDI-P is the supporter of Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD. Meanwhile, Nasdem, PKB and PKS are supporting Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar. Even though it has not been converted into the number of seats they will get, the accumulated votes of these political parties are slightly higher than those supporting Prabowo-Gibran, namely 45.41 percent.

With this proportion, the political power supporting the new government is relatively equal to the power that has the potential to be outside the government. Even though the elite supporters of Prabowo, especially from Gerindra, admit that they are continuing to try to invite the other four political parties to join the government, up to now no decision has been made. PDI-P, Nasdem, PKB and PKS have the potential to become the government's opposition.

The political constellation in parliament differs from the results of the 2019 election. During the 2019-2024 government period, a coalition of political parties supporting the Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin administration dominated parliament. For about four years, seven out of nine political parties supporting the government controlled 471 out of a total of 575 seats in the DPR. This power increased after the Democrat party joined a few weeks ago, bringing the control of seats in the legislative institution to 525.

Also read: Won the Legislative Election, but Lost the Presidential Election, Could PDI-P Return to Opposition?

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Prabowo Subianto, who has been declared as the winner of the votes in the 2024 Presidential Election, along with the leaders of the Indonesia Maju Coalition held a press conference at his residence on Kertanegara Street, Jakarta, on Wednesday evening (20/3/2024).

The dominance of political parties supporting the government means that the government runs without significant obstacles from parliament. However, on the other hand, control mechanisms (checks and balances) have been eroded. A number of draft laws that have attracted public criticism, for example, can still be passed. For example, the Job Creation Draft Law, the revision of the Corruption Eradication Commission Law, and most recently the plan to ratify the Jakarta Special Region Draft Law.

The suboptimal function of parliament has also eroded the quality of democracy in Indonesia. Citing the V-Dem Democracy Index 2024 report, Indonesia's democracy index decreased from 0.43 in 2022 to 0.36 in 2023. Alongside this, Indonesia's ranking dropped from 79th to 87th, below Papua New Guinea and Timor Leste. The decline in the democracy index is even evident throughout President Jokowi's administration. In 2014, the democracy index was still at 0.52.

Ideally be in opposition

DPP PDI-P Chairman Komarudin Watubun said that in order to maintain mechanism control and democracy in general, ideally his party should be outside the government. It is agreed by everyone that Indonesia is a democratic country. The essence of democracy is that there must be control over one another.

"So, it would be better if PDI-P is outside (of the government), in a position to control the ruling government. Plus, if we hold the position of the Speaker of the House, that would be great. The Speaker of the House is an effective tool for the president's control. That's actually what the people are hoping for," he said in Jakarta on Wednesday."

Also read: Selling President Jokowi's Name, PSI Still Not Passing Parliament

KOMPAS/HENDRA A SETYAWAN

Gardeners are watering flowers in the front garden of the Nusantara Building, also known as the Turtle Building, in the Parliament Complex in Jakarta on Monday (14/8/2023).

Indonesia's better future, according to him, should be filled with mutual correction so that all parties become more mature in democracy. Therefore, no one should feel allergic if a political party chooses to be outside the government. In addition, becoming opposition is also a right choice as a consequence of the defeat of the PDI-P-backed presidential and vice presidential candidates, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, in the 2024 presidential election.

So, it would be better if PDI-P is outside of (the government), in a position to control the ruling government. Moreover, if we hold the position of House of Representatives (DPR) chairperson, it's good. The DPR chairperson becomes an effective control instrument for the president. That's actually what the people expect. (Komarudin Watubun)

Meanwhile, the Prabowo-Gibran camp continues to strive to invite political parties on the opposing side in the 2024 Presidential Election to unite. Secretary General of Gerindra, Ahmad Muzani, stated that continued approaches are being made to all parties.

"We will continue to build a large coalition with various political parties in Senayan and communication is currently ongoing. Communication is underway and the results are positive," he said.

Improvement opportunities

Political lecturer from the Department of Politics, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences at Airlangga University in Surabaya, Airlangga Pribadi Kusman, sees that balancing political power in the parliament following the 2024 Election is crucial to improving Indonesia's democracy. This is because the Presidential Election in 2024 that resulted in Prabowo-Gibran winning is perceived by many as a threat to the sustainability of democracy. Apart from alleged election fraud, various non-democratic processes also accompanied the candidacy of the pair.

Also read: 2024 Election Results: Prabowo-Gibran Wins One Round

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

The atmosphere at the DPR's Plenary Session for the opening of the 2018-2019 session at the Parliamentary Building in Senayan, Jakarta, on Wednesday (8/5/2019).

Therefore, an alternative force in parliament is needed to balance those in power. This can only be achieved if PDI-P, Nasdem, PKB, and PPP take the stance of being outside of the government. "If they are consistent in their opposition, this can build political balance, at least can safeguard and maintain the democracy that currently exists, albeit at a relatively minimal level, procedural democracy," said Airlangga.

Kompas

The Ministers of the Advanced Indonesia Cabinet prepare to take a photo with the leadership of the DPR at the end of the DPR Plenary Session for the first session of the 2019-2020 session at the Parliament Complex, Senayan, Jakarta, Monday (5/10/2020). The plenary meeting that day officially ratified the Omnibus Law bill into law.

Furthermore, differing opinions from a strong opposition can also push the government to always create programs that truly represent the interests of the people. This was relatively unseen during the period of 2019-2024 because the government and the DPR tended to always be in agreement. "Political pressure or differing opinions from the opposition will certainly put pressure on the government or the ruling party to continue in the democratic agenda," said Airlangga.

However, it cannot be denied that it is not easy for political parties in Indonesia to take positions outside of the government. The political and economic structure of Indonesia's democracy offers more incentives or political and economic benefits for political parties if they are in the circle of power. Conversely, there are almost no political incentives or power to be gained by those in opposition. This is suspected to be the cause of why political parties have been reluctant to be outside the government until now.

However, adding to this, political parties can also benefit by staying outside of the government to oversee the interests of the people. The aforementioned benefits are none other than legitimacy and trust from the public. Both of these aspects will undoubtedly serve as a significant advantage in garnering electoral support and the community in the upcoming five-year election.

Also read: Autumn of the Opposition

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Private Airlangga Kusman

"If political parties consider public legitimacy as a consideration for their future regarding consistency in their political position, of course democracy will become better because their opportunities to rely on it will be increasingly greater. However, if their considerations involve material incentives in power, it will certainly be more difficult for them to take a position as opposition," he explained.

The political dynamics and determination of political party positions, aside from those supporting Prabowo-Gibran, will continue for the next seven months. The positions they take will indicate their priorities and preferences. Will they prioritize public interest and continue with the democratic agenda, or focus on power?