Political Lobbying Continues After the Election, Join a Coalition or Choose the "Opposition"?

Political lobbying for majority support in parliament is starting to be intensified even though the 2024 election stages have not yet been fully completed.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

Almost all the party leaders of the political parties that are part of the coalition supporting President Joko Widodo and Vice President Ma'ruf Amin met with President Joko Widodo at the Presidential Palace Complex in Jakarta on Tuesday (May 2, 2023) evening.

Political lobbying has not stopped even though the results of the 2024 Election were announced by the General Election Commission on March 20. The eight political parties that are certain to qualify for parliament are still continuing to build communication with each other, both between political parties in one coalition and between one political party and other political parties outside the coalition carrying the presidential candidate and vice President.

It was Prabowo Subianto, the presidential candidate (capres) with the most votes in the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres) who, at the first opportunity after the election results were announced, tried to build communication with political parties (parpol ) supporters of his political rivals. Only two days after the KPU determined the election results, Friday (22/3/2024), Prabowo visited Surya Paloh, General Chair of the Nasdem Party, at its headquarters at Nasdem Tower, Jakarta.

The meeting undoubtedly sparked speculation, with Nasdem, which supports the Anies Rasyid Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair, potentially joining the coalition of political parties supporting Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the winning presidential and vice-presidential candidates of the 2024 Presidential Election. Moreover, earlier, Surya Paloh had acknowledged the election results and congratulated Prabowo-Gibran.

Regarding his arrival at the Nasdem headquarters, Prabowo was said to be moved because Surya Paloh had offered his congratulations. After the meeting, Prabowo also expressed his gratitude for the congratulations from Surya Paloh. Not only that, Prabowo also invited Surya Paloh to join his coalition of supporting political parties.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

The Chairman of the Nasdem Party, Surya Paloh, along with President-elect Prabowo Subianto held a press conference after their meeting at the Nasdem Tower in Jakarta on Friday (22/3/2024).

After visiting the Nasdem party, Prabowo also intends to visit the United Development Party (PPP), one of the political parties supporting the Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD pair. However, until now, that intention has not been realized.

Not only that, since the election results were announced, the Defense Minister has also visited a number of political parties that supported him. Starting from the National Mandate Party (PAN) and most recently, on Wednesday (27/3/2024), attending an iftar together event held by the Democratic Party in the Kuningan area of Jakarta. According to the plan, Prabowo will also attend an iftar event with the Golkar Party this Friday (29/3/2024) evening.

Also read: End of Waiting for Prabowo Subianto

Since the beginning, Prabowo has stated that he and his running mate, Gibran, will embrace all elements and strengths. However, his political moves since being announced as the winner of the presidential election still raise speculations that he is trying to strengthen support in parliament.

The speculation is certainly reasonable. Although Prabowo won the presidential election, his Gerindra Party was not successful in winning the legislative election (Pileg). The Pileg contest in 2024 was still won by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the party supporting Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD. With an estimated seat acquisition of around 110 or 18.97 percent of the DPR seats, PDI-P will again hold the position of DPR Chairman. This applies as long as Law Number 13 of 2019 concerning the MPR, DPR, DPD, and DPRD, which regulates that the DPR Chairman is a member of the DPR from the political party that holds the most seats, is not revised.

Not only that, the four political parties of the Indonesian Moving Coalition (KIM) supporting Prabowo-Gibran that made it to parliament, namely Gerindra, Golkar, PAN, and Democrat, only hold 280 or 48.27 percent of the seats in the DPR. This means that the majority of seats in the DPR are controlled by rival political parties supporting Anies-Muhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud.

The issue of air pollution is not new. The community's situation threatened by air pollution has been long occurring. Research evidence indicating the threats of air pollution's impacts is abundant. However, this has yet to prompt significant efforts in controlling air pollution. Consequently, residents' suffering in the midst of air pollution increases. Partai Nasdem, Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa (PKB), and Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) that support Anies-Muhaimin have control over 190 or 32.76% seats in DPR. On the other hand, PDI-P, the only political party supporting Ganjar-Mahfud confirmed to enter parliament, controls 18.97% of DPR's seats.

The Secretary-General of the Gerindra Party, Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, revealed after the plenary session of the DPR at the Parliament Complex in Jakarta on Thursday (28/3/2024) that communication with all political forces is carried out every day. Communication is even established with the PDI-P.

Previously, earlier this week, PDI-P Secretary General Hasto Kristiyanto stated that there is no significant obstacle for PDI-P Chair Megawati Soekarnoputri to meet with Prabowo. However, the meeting can only be realized after the Constitutional Court decides on the case of the dispute over the election results.

KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI

Chairman of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, greeted the Chairman of the PDI-P, Megawati Soekarnoputri, as Prabowo was leaving Megawati's residence on Teuku Umar Street, Jakarta, on Wednesday (24/7/2019).

When asked about the possibility of a meeting between Megawati and Prabowo, the Chairperson of the PDI-P DPP, Puan Maharani, did not give a clear answer. Several times, Puan, who was asked by journalists at the DPR building on Thursday, only answered, "God willing."

Looking at political dynamics

Secretary General of the Nasdem Party Hermawi F Taslim, in a talk One ​​Table The Forum on Kompas TV, Wednesday (27/3/2024) evening, revealed that Nasdem had not yet decided to accept the invitation Prabowo to join the coalition of political parties supporting Prabowo-Gibran.

"If you want to join, it's still fifty-fifty. We are still looking at the dynamics of the next seven months. "We still have to dialogue with our friends in the regions," said Hermawi in the talk hosted by senior journalist Budiman Tanuredjo.

Present at the discussion entitled "Post-Election 2024, Coalition or Opposition?” These are the top officials of the eight political parties that have passed the parliamentary threshold in the 2024 elections. Apart from Hermawi, there are PDI-P DPP Chairman Ahmad Basarah, Deputy General Chair of the Golkar Party Ahmad Doli Kurnia Tandjung, Deputy Secretary General of the Gerindra Party Wihadi Wiyanto, Secretary General of PAN Eddy Soeparno, Secretary of the Assembly Democratic Party leader Andi Mallarangeng, Chairman of the PKB DPP Daniel Johan, and PKS Secretary General Aboe Bakar Al-Habsyi.

Hermawi added that currently, Nasdem is still considering whether to join the upcoming government or choose to be outside of the government. What is certain is that the decision will be made while taking into account the welfare of the nation and country.

Also read: "Fifty-fifty Possibility", Surya Paloh's answer when asked to join Prabowo

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

The Chairman of Nasdem Party, Surya Paloh (left), and the Chairman of Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, gave statements to journalists after their meeting at Nasdem Tower in Jakarta on Wednesday, June 1st, 2022.

The PKB, which is in a coalition with the Nasdem party, has not yet determined whether to be part of the government coalition or outside of it. In fact, according to Daniel Johan, the PKB has not discussed this issue because they are currently focused on completing the request for dispute of the election results in the Constitutional Court.

However, Daniel continued, PKB will gather input from both internal and external party members. "Of course, we will accept input from all levels of the party structure, including from NU clerics, cross-religious figures, and all volunteers. From all of that input, we will choose the best one," he said.

The party PKS, which also supports Anies-Muhaimin with Nasdem and PKB, has not yet determined its stance. In fact, according to Aboe Bakar Al-Habsyi, the PKS Advisory Council has requested that the party's management team currently focus on resolving the election dispute in the Constitutional Court.

PDI-P also considers it too early to discuss the issue of party positions, whether they will join the government coalition or stay outside the government. Because there is still one more stage to be fulfilled, namely the PHPU trial at MK. "It's not the time to discuss that yet because the election still has one more stage, namely the PHPU trial at MK," said Basarah.

Building a nation together

The meeting between Prabowo and several political party elites is just the beginning. According to Wihadi, there will be further meetings with political party elites, not just to attract political parties into the coalition, but also to invite all political forces to work together in building the nation.

KOMPAS/FAKHRI FADLURROHMAN

The General Chairman of the Gerindra Party and presidential candidate, Prabowo Subianto (second from the right), whispered to the General Chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB) Muhaimin Iskandar at the Proclamation Manuscript Formulation Museum in Jakarta on Sunday (13/8/2023). Original Article: Jumlah pengungsi Rohingya yang melarikan diri dari Myanmar terus meningkat. PBB mencatat, sekitar 536 ribu pengungsi Rohingya telah melarikan diri ke Bangladesh dalam waktu sebulan terakhir. Kondisi kamp-kamp pengungsian di Bangladesh pun dilaporkan semakin padat. English Translation: The number of Rohingya refugees fleeing from Myanmar continues to increase. The United Nations records that around 536,000 Rohingya refugees have fled to Bangladesh in the past month. The condition of refugee camps in Bangladesh is also reported to be becoming more overcrowded.

Prabowo, continued Wihadi, understands very well that you cannot build this nation alone. Post-presidential election reconciliation is considered important to maintain unity and unity which is the main capital for building the nation.

"Basically, Mr. Prabowo wants us to understand that building our nation cannot be done alone. We must work together to provide welfare for the people and strive towards Indonesia Emas 2045," he said.

Also read: Prabowo: We Will Embrace All Elements

Andi Mallarangeng agrees with Wihadi's statement. According to him, in order to run the government and development well, the support of the majority in parliament is needed. Therefore, it is reasonable for Prabowo to want to pull other political parties from the opposing camp to join the ranks of the Indonesian Forward Coalition.

The point is, isn't it, Pak Prabowo wants that we cannot build the nation alone.

However, according to Andi, a coalition that is too large can also be fragile because it will be more difficult to manage political parties within it. "So, what is important is to have the support of the majority in parliament. Usually, the standard is adequate, with 50 percent or less. Don't be too tight, but don't be too large either," he said.

Because, according to Andi, good governance also requires control in parliament. This means that the presence of groups or political parties that remain outside the government is still necessary.

Aboe Bakar also reminded the importance of checks and balances in the government system. "For example, if there is no one outside (the government), then who is in control?" he said.

For PKS, it is not a problem if they remain outside of the government. However, it is also not an issue if PKS joins a coalition supporting the government. PKS has experience being a party supporting the government from 2004-2014, as well as a non-government party after the 2014 election until now.

KOMPAS/YOLA SASTRA

The crowd waved flags of the Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) and the Partai Nasdem during an open campaign for presidential candidate Anies Baswedan in the courtyard of the GOR Haji Agus Salim, in Padang City, West Sumatra, on Thursday (25/1/2024). Original Article: Pemerintah Indonesia juga membantah tuduhan PBB bahwa kebijakan Indonesia terhadap Papua Barat bertentangan dengan hukum internasional. Keputusan pemerintah untuk mengakhiri kebijakan otonomi khusus Papua Barat pada 2021 telah memasuki tahap pelaksanaan. Hal itu tercermin pada pembentukan Badan Pembangunan Papua Barat sebagai badan otonom baru yang bertugas mengelola pembangunan dan pemerintahan di wilayah tersebut. English Translation: The Indonesian government also denies the United Nations' allegations that Indonesia's policy towards West Papua is in conflict with international law. The government's decision to end the special autonomy policy for West Papua in 2021 has entered its implementation phase. This is reflected in the formation of the West Papua Development Agency as a new autonomous body tasked with managing development and governance in the region.

According to Aboe Bakar, the position of PKS after the 2024 election will be highly dependent on the political map following the Constitutional Court's decision on the electoral dispute. This applies to both the presidential and legislative elections.

Similar to PKS, PDI-P also has experience outside of government from 2004 to 2014, as well as being in government since the 2014 election until now. Basarah explained that while outside of government, PDI-P carried out the function of controlling governmental power as mandated by the constitution.

Also read: Dividing KIB Seats, Each Claiming the Most Merit in Winning Prabowo-Gibran

"At that time, we did not refer to ourselves as the opposition party which later invited political parties outside of the government of Mr. SBY (Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono) to join," he said.

Political lobbying and exploration are expected to continue until the elected President and Vice President are inaugurated in October. There is still time for political parties to reflect and consider whether to join the ranks of the government's supporting coalition or remain outside the government.