Who are the Loyal Ganjar-Mahfud Voters?

Choosing a presidential candidate with low electability is not a pleasant choice. Why do they remain loyal to choosing Ganjar-Mahfud?

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

Presidential and vice presidential candidates Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD prior to the preliminary hearing of the dispute on the Presidential Election results in the 2024 General Election at the Constitutional Court in Jakarta on Wednesday (27/3/2024).

The results of the manual calculation of the presidential and vice presidential elections carried out by the KPU were completed on March 20 2024. The pair Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD are in third place presidential candidate pair. For Ganjar-Mahfud and PDI-P sympathizers, this vote figure seems to be considered too low compared to the social capital that Ganjar-Mahfud has in a number of campaigns and the characteristics of his supporters.

Doubts about the results of the presidential election are reflected in the various reactions of Ganjar-Mahfud supporters on social media and Ganjar Pranowo himself who asked all parties to patiently wait for the results of the KPU calculation. When asked for his comments regarding the quick count results of the presidential election by a number of journalists after the announcement of the quick count results14 February 2024, Ganjar actually asked back, "Do you believe my results are like that?"

During the recent campaign for the closing of the 2024 Presidential Election campaign in Benteng Vastenburg, Solo City, Central Java on February 10, 2024, there was an extraordinary public enthusiasm, particularly from the cadres of the PDI-P. The crowds who came to simply watch or participate overflowed and persisted even though it was raining. That day, a total of 13 roads around Benteng Vastenburg were closed to accommodate the cultural parade and estimated 100,000 spectators.

A week before, on February 3, 2024, the National Campaign Team (TPN) of Ganjar-Mahfud held a grand campaign in Gelora Bung Karno, Jakarta, with massive participation expected to reach 150,000 people. The Chairperson of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Megawati Soekarnoputri, even convinced the masses in her speech that they would be able to defeat their opponents and win in a single round.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

Presidential Candidate Ganjar Pranowo acted as the applicant when delivering his speech in the preliminary hearing of the dispute over the results of the Presidential Election in the 2024 General Election at the Constitutional Court in Jakarta on Wednesday (March 27, 2024).

In more than 450 campaign events for Ganjar-Mahfud throughout Indonesia since November 2023, almost all of them have been enthusiastically and massively attended by the public. Support not only comes from sympathizers and cadres of PDI-P, but also from political parties endorsing PPP, Hanura, and Perindo.

One example is during a campaign together with the PDI-P and Joxzin organization at Alun-alun Wates, Kulon Progo, DI Yogyakarta (January 29, 2024), which repeats the history of red and green cadre campaigns simultaneously in Yogyakarta. However, usually these two mass forces are more often in conflict during the election campaign season.

Not surprisingly, at that time both Ganjar and TPN Chairman Arsjad Rasjid were optimistic about winning the 2024 Presidential Election. They compared what they saw and felt in the campaign field with news about survey results.

"There are conceptual conditions, the results of data collection from surveys, but there is sociological reality. And today I got the sociological reality. "It feels like, if this condition continues like this, we are sure that what will be in the spotlight of the people's eyes, what will be the voice of the people, what will be the optics of the people's gathering, God willing, it will be something real," said Ganjar (Kompas< /i>, 1/19/2024).

However, all of those hopes crumbled on the day of voting on February 14, 2024, after quick count results from credible survey institutions showed that Ganjar-Mahfud's vote count had plummeted. Winning the first round was out of the question, and even getting into the second round - if any - seemed impossible due to the large gap in votes with other candidates.

Ganjar-Mahfud's vote tally was far behind that of the other two candidates, including the Anies-Muhaimin pair, who at the start of the campaign were candidates who were always at the bottom of the rankings. Therefore, it is not surprising that for Ganjar voters-Mahfud, TPN, and even PDI-P officials, the facts from the quick count were like lightning in broad daylight.

Electability under political pressure

Nonetheless, for the public who are keeping an eye on the dynamics of the presidential candidates' vote count, Ganjar-Mahfud's vote acquisition on the voting day of February 14, 2024, is actually not surprising. In fact, the number is actually a form of electoral resilience from the condition the previous month.

How could it not be, as can be seen from the results of the Kompas survey in early December 2023, Ganjar-Mahfud's electability at that time was still at 15.3 percent, below Anies-Muhaimin (16.7 percent) and Prabowo -Gibran (39.3 percent).

The electability figures for Ganjar-Mahfud are the lowest since October 2022, with Ganjar Pranowo's vote reaching 32.6-37.0 percent and leading the presidential election poll results based on surveys. However, the achievement of that figure is noteworthy since Ganjar has not yet partnered with Mahfud MD and Jokowi's support has not yet focused on Prabowo-Gibran.

Next, we learn about the "voter migration" due to Jokowi's support for Prabowo-Gibran, as reflected in the surge of Prabowo-Gibran's votes and the decline of Ganjar-Mahfud's votes, while Anies' votes tend to slightly increase. Indeed, on average, survey institutions at that time still placed Ganjar's electability figures in the range of 20-25 percent during the data collection period until the end of December 2023.

PDI-P Secretary General Hasto Kristiyanto even said that what was happening was not migration or loss of vote base, but rather shock voters, aka voters who were badly shaken by the steps taken by President Joko Widodo, who had been supported by PDI-P, to switch to supporting the presidential candidate. serial number 2, Prabowo-Gibran.

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Supporters of presidential and vice-presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD rallied to help the number 3 pair win at the Pancasila Field in Simpang Lima, Semarang City, Central Java, on Saturday (10/2/2024).

However, even though supporters of Ganjar-Mahfud already know the weight of the resistance that must be faced to defeat the presidential-supported candidate pair, the spirit to keep fighting is evident. Not only from the lower levels of the PDI-P party members who are still keen on campaigning, even the coalition party leaders, including the Chairman of Hanura, Oesman Sapta Odang, are often seen actively campaigning.

This tenacity is increasingly proven in the field. Of all the presidential candidates or political parties participating in the election, it seems that only PDI-P cadres had many physical clashes during the campaign period. From the question of the use of brong exhausts by motorbikes participating in the campaign, the removal of billboards in a number of areas, the interception of PDI-P campaign participants on the highway, to the beatings of the masses.

This is not to mention the numerous allegations of "subtle intimidation" through summoning community leaders and pressure to vote for a certain presidential candidate. There are also allegations of obstacles in campaign funds in the form of donations from local or national businessmen, which have been the lifeblood of PDI-P's presidential and legislative campaigns in previous elections.

And what is most striking and protracted is the process of criminalizing journalist Aiman ​​Witjaksono who stated that he was involved with officials.

In some cases, campaign activities even escalate to become serious and claim victims, as seen in the case of a PDI-P cadre in Boyolali who was allegedly beaten by military personnel on December 30, 2023, as well as clashes with supporters of other parties that resulted in a party member being beaten to death (the Maguwoharjo case, DIY, December 24, 2023).

However, despite various pressures and intimidations, it has been proven that they are still able to resist political electability and provide electability for Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD. So, who are the loyal voters of Ganjar-Mahfud?

KOMPAS/NINO CITRA ANUGRAHANTO

Residents watched the Chairwoman of PDI-P Megawati Soekarnoputri delivering a speech from a screen displayed in the closing campaign of the Ganjar-Mahfud pair in the Vastenburg Fortress, Surakarta, Central Java, on February 10, 2024.

Demographics and profile of Ganjar-Mahfud loyal voters

The picture of Ganjar-Mahfud's loyal voters was recorded from the results of a post-election survey (exit poll) conducted by Kompa Research and Development on 7,863 election voter respondents as soon as they left the polling station (TPS). throughout Indonesia. The number of TPS sampled was 2,000 TPS with 4 respondents in each TPS.

In terms of demographics, the Ganjar-Mahfud voters tend to have a higher proportion of male voters (52.9 percent) than female voters (44.5 percent). This is also the case in terms of age, where the proportion of Ganjar-Mahfud voters leans towards older voters with 44.4 percent being senior citizens and 14.8 percent being elderly. The composition of young voters and Generation Z voters in the Ganjar-Mahfud camp tends to be smaller compared to the two other presidential candidate pairs.

The educational background of Ganjar-Mahfud's voters is also thicker in primary education (52.1 percent) compared to other candidate pairs who did not reach half of it. Likewise, compared to other candidate pairs, Ganjar-Mahfud's voters are dominated by the Javanese ethnic group, which covers almost 60 percent of the voters. This is in stark contrast to other candidates who only have 43 percent of Prabowo-Gibran's voters and 29 percent of Anies-Muhaimin's voters.

The loyalty of Ganjar-Mahfud's voters is also reflected by the highest proportion in making choices that have been made long ago. As much as 48.8 percent of Ganjar-Mahfud's voters had confirmed their choice to vote for this pair more than a month before. This proportion is somewhat larger than Prabowo-Gibran's (45.6 percent) and Anies-Muhaimin's (46.6 percent), even though the other two pairs of candidates have already led in surveys.

KOMPAS/HENDRA A SETYAWAN

Thousands of supporters of presidential and vice-presidential candidates number 3, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, crowded the grand campaign in Genteng, Banyuwangi, East Java, despite heavy rain pouring on February 8, 2024.

When asked, the respondents who voted for the Ganjar-Mahfud pair, the biggest reason for choosing the presidential candidate was "pro-people" at 37.4 percent. Proportionally, for each presidential candidate, this number is much higher than the biggest reason for choosing Prabowo, which is brave/firm (30.9 percent), and the biggest reason for choosing Anies-Muhaimin, which is smart (18.7 percent).

When compared to a series of previous surveys when the presidential candidate was not accompanied by a vice-presidential candidate, answer patterns based on demographics and candidate characteristics are relatively similar. This means that, in terms of rational and emotional background of choice, there should be no significant difference in how the presidential candidate is viewed, both before and after being paired with a vice-presidential candidate. Unfortunately, once again, the factual conditions of the election results do not show the initial premise that was assumed.

Also read: Ganjar Says Reform Betrayed, Power Abused in 2024 Presidential Election

In terms of party supporter voters, Ganjar's most loyal voters are from the PDI-P party, with 54.9 percent choosing Ganjar-Mahfud. However, not only that, some Golkar voters (8.5 percent), some PKB voters (11.2 percent), some Nasdem voters (8.6 percent), some PAN voters (7.8 percent), and even 4.9 percent of PPP voters also choose Ganjar.

Meanwhile, the support of coalition political party voters doesn't seem to be strong enough as the proportions are relatively low. Only 22.2% of Hanura voters chose Ganjar-Mahfud, while Perindo voters only accounted for 18.6%, and PPP voters only accounted for 17.7% who chose Ganjar-Mahfud.

KOMPAS/FAKHRI FADLURROHMAN

Slank band's vocalist Kaka entertained volunteers and sympathizers of Ganjar-Mahfud in a grand campaign at the Gelora Bung Karno Main Stadium in Jakarta on Saturday (3/2/2024).

The political machine of decisive power

By looking at the inconsistency of various social and political landscapes before and after the presidential election, it is difficult to deny the important role of other factors in "reversing" the pattern of victory in the presidential election in less than four months. This is counted from October 25, 2023, the deadline for the determination of presidential and vice-presidential candidates to February 14, 2024, the election day.

Tracing the compatibility of presidential and vice presidential candidates' electability in credible surveys with political machinery, it appears that the electability of Ganjar-Mahfud is more determined by non-sociological-historical factors. In other words, regional backgrounds, demographics, and social behavior issues are less able to provide adequate electoral incentives.

Also read: PDI-P in the Shadow of Early Voter Crisis

On the contrary, there is a more pragmatic-rational dimension that is able to break the historical-sociological nostalgic ties which previously provided high electoral benefits for Ganjar-Mahfud until August 2023.

One of the major supporting factors that is believed to have an impact on the fluctuation of Ganjar-Mahfud's electability seems to be directed towards political (or non-political) work outside the sociological considerations of presidential candidates as their natural social capital.

KOMPAS/HENDRA A SETYAWAN

A sympathizer of the Ganjar-Mahfud couple signs their support during a grand campaign in Genteng, Banyuwangi, East Java, Thursday (8/2/2024).

To clarify further, when the political machine that allied with President Jokowi became increasingly clear in not supporting Ganjar-Mahfud, the political force that previously strengthened their historical-sociological bond began to lose its shine, and their political support weakened.

Take for example the turning away of campaign fund supporters, volunteer groups, and political activist networks who were previously united, now splitting into the Prabowo-Gibran camp.

The split occurred at the level of the national business association, regional businessmen, volunteers supporting Jokowi in the 2014-2019 elections, down to the lower levels of society. Many families experience differences in political choices in the 2024 Election due to differences in political orientation or other pragmatism.

Even within the inner circle of the presidency, there is a "division" caused by differences in political orientation for the 2024 presidential election. These differences have spread to the Presidential Staff Office, as reflected by the resignation of one of the deputy heads of the Presidential Staff Office due to ethical and belief considerations.

FRANSISKUS WISNU WARDHANA DANY

The atmosphere of the queue when the Ganjar-Mahfud volunteers distributed 5,000 free coffee cups during the grand campaign of Hajatan Rakyat at the Main Stadium of Gelora Bung Karno, Central Jakarta, on Saturday (3/2/2024).

Currently, suspicion is largely directed towards the massive distribution of social assistance (bansos) from November 2023 to January 2024, the alleged deployment of security forces, and President Jokowi's campaign promises.

Now, the KPU vote count has been completed and announced, but the Anis-Muhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud teams have not yet accepted the election results. Both sides have filed a lawsuit with the Constitutional Court on the grounds of systematic and massive fraud.

We will still be waiting for the final results of the political drama of the presidential election after the Constitutional Court decision is issued. However, whatever will be decided later, those who voted for Ganjar-Mahfud (and also Anies-Muhaimin) certainly have their own pride in choosing a presidential candidate who is considered clean and honest without manipulation, even in minimal proportions. (R&D COMPAS)

Also read: Ganjar-Mahfud: Lawsuit to the Constitutional Court to Maintain Sanity