Challenges in Achieving the TNI's Minimum Basic Strength Target

Until early 2024, the MEF has only reached around 65 percent. To achieve the target, it is necessary to increase the defense budget.

SUPRIYANTO

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In 2024, the TNI will enter the third stage (2020-2024) of completing the minimum essential force (MEF). However, until early 2024, the MEF achieved has only been around 65 percent. So, what is the measure of MEF's success?

What kind of Indonesian military strength is expected to be fulfilled by the third stage of the MEF in 2024?

Referring to the statement by the Chairman of the MPR Bambang Soesatyo that by 2024 the total strength of MEF defense equipment for each TNI dimension is targeted to be met, namely, among others, the TNI AD with 723,564 light weapons, 1,354 cannons/rockets/ missiles, 3,738 combat vehicles, and 224 aircraft.

For the Indonesian Navy, they have 182 naval vessels, 8 submarines, 100 aircraft, and 978 Marine combat vehicles. Meanwhile, the Indonesian Air Force has 344 fighter jets, 32 radars, 72 missiles, and 64 air defense systems.

Also read: Ministry of Defense Asked to Accommodate TNI Defense Equipment Needs

Is it possible that this MEF TNI target can be achieved?

As a reminder, MEF was initiated by the Indonesian Government in 2007 by the then-Defense Minister, Juwono Sudarsono. MEF is divided into three strategic plans until 2024, consisting of three components of posture, namely strength, deployment, and capability.

The MEF policy has been implemented since 2009, divided into three phases: the first phase from 2009 to 2014, the second phase from 2014 to 2019, and the third phase from 2019 to 2024. 2024 marks the end of the third phase, and the achievement of the MEF should be 100 percent by then.

Why should that be? Because, it turns out that since the start of the first phase of the MEF in 2009 until the third phase of 2024, the MEF policy has always been consistently supported by the government through the allocation of the defense budget in the Ministry of Defense< /a> which tends to increase every year.

It has been ongoing for 15 years until now, but ironically, many parties, including former TNI Commander Admiral TNI (Ret.) Yudo Margono, as well as General TNI (Ret.) Andika Perkasa and other TNI leaders, are pessimistic that the MEF target of 100 percent by 2024 will be achieved.

One of the benchmark measurements is its achievement, which is currently only 65.49 percent of the program target. This condition often becomes the discourse of debate in finding the real root of the problem faced by the low achievement of the TNI MEF.

MEF Achievements

Referring to the data presented at the TNI's 2023 Rapim (which is still relevant as the latest data for 2024 has not been disclosed), it turns out that the TNI's MEF achievement has only reached 65.06 percent. The breakdown is as follows: TNI AD 77.38 percent, TNI AL 66.29 percent, and TNI AU 51.51 percent.

Referring to the data, it is reasonable that many parties are pessimistic and conclude that MEF's achievements are still far from the target of achieving up to 100 percent, while there are only a few months left until the end of 2024.

Care for the achievement of the TNI's MEF (Minimum Essential Force) should not be underestimated because MEF is a basic and absolute strength standard prepared as the main prerequisite for the effectiveness of TNI's main tasks and functions in facing actual threats. Especially in the midst of the escalating tension between countries at present.

True and serene peace can only be achieved through sufficient military force to ward off threats or attacks.

It is only fitting that the low achievement of MEF invites active participation and contributions from many parties and a solution must be found immediately, as the principle is that the TNI must be able to professionally carry out its duties and responsibilities in ensuring the sovereignty and existence of the Republic of Indonesia. Therefore, the TNI must be equipped with the necessary equipment (with sufficient quantity and modernized equipment) to fulfill its needs.

Si cis pacem, para bellum. Lexically, it means that true and peaceful peace can only be achieved through sufficient military force to stem threats or attacks. This fact can be seen in the reality of the war between Russia versus Ukraine and Israel versus Hammas. It is proven that the success of a diplomatic strategy must be complemented by the support of the reality of a country's formidable military strength.

Learning from the inevitability of war which can happen at any time, it is very reasonable that the demand for the urgency of modernization and fulfillment of the TNI's defense equipment is a need that cannot be postponed any longer. One of the conclusions of Sun Tzu, author of The Art of War, a Chinese war strategist, is that the party that is superior in modern war strategy is the party that uses defense equipment that is superior in number and modern in technology.

This is where the problem lies. Is there enough available state budget to meet this?

President Joko Widodo stated that the government will continue to strive to meet the TNI's MEF targets, but must adjust to the available budget.

Does this mean that the TNI still has to be patient and wait for the nation's surplus economy to increase and become established before its MEF needs can be met? Or is it true that no one is able to innovate for funding defense equipment that is out of the box?

Is it permissible to involve private participation or does our country have to support the reality of the country's military strength a little and be forced to change its rules of neutrality (non-alignment) by joining a defense alliance? Of course it is not the responsibility of TNI soldiers to find a solution.

For the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI), TNI politics is state politics, TNI does not engage in politics and must follow the decisions of the state. The TNI has communicated its needs and expectations in a procedural and professional manner, and is ready to adapt to the decisions of the state.

Also read: Maintaining the Defense Equipment Budget

Apart from the Covid-19 pandemic, which has just been dealt with and consumed an enormous amount of state funds and the cost of democracy through elections, which also requires great expenses, it is reasonable and understandable that many analysts are pessimistic about the achievement of the TNI MEF reaching 100 percent by the end of 2024. According to the author's analysis, the likelihood of achieving it is only around 70 percent.

The budget needed for modernizing TNI's weaponry in MEF is significant as it includes modernization, maintenance, operational costs, and even the operators. It cannot be calculated based on the unit price alone. If we don't want to be dictated and become dependent, we need to also transfer the technology.

In general, our military budget is still too low compared to developed countries. Large/developed nations usually allocate military budget ranging from 1-3 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) income. Meanwhile, Indonesia currently only allocates around 0.8 percent of its budget for the military.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

Defile of the TNI's main weapons system (alutsista) equipment on Jalan Medan Merdeka Utara, Jakarta, Wednesday (5/10/2022).

In conclusion, it is necessary to increase the amount of the defense budget because currently our military budget is still relatively small.

Based on data from the Ministry of Finance, Indonesia's defense budget ratio to GDP in 2022 is around 0.77 percent. This ratio is derived from a defense budget of IDR 150.44 trillion compared to Indonesia's GDP value in 2022 of IDR 19,588.45 trillion.

Thus, it becomes a challenge for all of us to be able to increase our GDP to around Rp 40,000 trillion. This is the reality of the problem.

Does the achievement of TNI's Minimum Essential Force (MEF) really have to comply with economic laws, which means waiting for the country's economy to become surplus first before fulfilling the MEF? Or are there still other budget alternatives that have not been considered?

This is where the root of the problem lies. We need innovation and ideas from the smart experts of this country, for whom we need to prepare human resources along with educational facilities. Investment must also be prepared for the quality of military personnel and their education, not just the quantity and modernization of their equipment.

Let's think about it and think together about the solution.

Based on data from the Ministry of Finance, the ratio of Indonesia's defense budget to GDP in 2022 is around 0.77 percent.

Closing

In the book The Art Of War it is also stated that no one, even a war expert, can predict the exact time a war will rage. Therefore, we must prepare for it.

War can happen anytime. Ironically, even the combat equipment such as Dassault Rafale that we have agreed to purchase can only arrive five years later.

Apparently, it does take a long time to prepare the defense tools for our beloved country. Especially if it is still a controversy in Parliament about whether the priority of maximum preparation of defense tools is needed or if other interests are better prepared.

Hopefully you don't fail to understand.

Esra Kriahanta Sembiring, Indonesian Air Force Colonel; Defense Science Doctoral Student at the Indonesian Defense University