Israeli impunity, Iranian progress, Palestinian neglect

Iran told the US that the attacks would be limited and not intended to be a large-scale war.

KOMPAS/HERYUNANTO

Illustration

Iran's attack on the Israel area using hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles is a historical action.

For the first time since hostile Iran-Israel relations post-Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, Tehran has taken the path of direct military confrontationvis a vis Israel.

Previously, Israel has attacked Iranian and Hezbollah military assets in Syria more than 200 times - since the Arab Spring erupted in the country in 2011 - without any retaliatory consequences from Iran. Tehran does not want to go to war with Israel, an ally of the US and the West, and a regional superpower.

The presence of the Iranian military and Hezbollah in Syria aims to assist President Bashar al-Assad's regime in the fight against armed rebellion. Israel suspects that the presence of the Iranian military and Hezbollah also aims to surround Israel and serve as Iran's logistics access to Lebanon, the stronghold of Hezbollah that was involved in a major war with Israel in 2006.

Also read: Could Iran's attack trigger a world war?

It is not surprising that when the Hamas-Israel war broke out, Israel launched several attacks on Iranian and Hezbollah military assets in Syria because, in order to assist Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah (an Iranian proxy) opened a front in southern Lebanon to draw Israeli military forces northward.

The attack by Iran was a political necessity, after Israel shamelessly attacked its consulate in Damascus, killing seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) two weeks prior.

According to Article 51 of the UN Charter, a consulate of a country is prohibited from being the target of military attacks. If this happens, the owner country of the object has the right to defend itself. According to the UN Charter, the consulate is part of the owner country's territory. Therefore, Iran's attack on Israel's territory is legally valid.

AFP/ATTA KENARE

A man walks past a billboard in Tehran, Iran, depicting an Iranian missile attack, Monday (15/4/2024).

Israeli impunity

The open conflict between Iran and Israel cannot be separated from the Gaza war. Hamas' surprise attack on Israel on October 7, which killed 1,139 Jewish citizens and detained more than 200 foreign and Israeli residents in Gaza, left Israel with no choice but to retaliate.

Unlike previous Hamas-Israel wars, this time Israel is determined to eradicate Hamas to its roots and free more than 100 remaining hostages. However, it turns out that these two goals are difficult to achieve even though the war has been going on for seven months.

Meanwhile, pressure from the global community for the war to be stopped immediately grew. Indeed, what the Israeli military did to Palestinian civilians was truly terrible. Israel destroyed more than 60 percent of residents' homes, all of Gaza's vital civilian infrastructure. Israel also stopped supplies of electricity, medicine and clean water.

So far, nearly 34,000 Palestinian residents have died, with the majority being children and women, while 80 percent of Gaza's population of 2.3 million have been displaced. Furthermore, Israel has restricted food supplies to make hunger a warfare strategy.

Since 2014, the peace process has stalled because Israel is no longer interested in negotiating.

However, Israel's terror did not stop. The new allies cried out when seven of their citizens working at the US-based NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) were deliberately killed by Israel. So, their criticism is political, not humanitarian. After all, what the Palestinians experienced was much more terrifying.

People arrested at al-Shifa Hospital, for example, were treated indecently. Women were stripped naked by male Zionist soldiers by touching their vital bodies. Albanese said some of the women were raped.

Israel does not consider all the despicable acts carried out in Palestine as violating human rights and humanitarian law, because they consider them to be half-animal, as stated by Israeli leaders, including President Isaac Herzog.

AP/ANGELA WEISS

The United Nations Security Council meeting regarding the situation in the Middle East, including the issue of Palestine, took place at the United Nations Headquarters in New York on Monday (25/3/2024) local time. Original Article: Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) mengecam keras tindakan kekerasan yang terjadi di Papua. PKS menilai, segala bentuk kekerasan harus bisa diatasi dengan dialog. Namun, terorisme yang terjadi di Papua harus dihentikan. English Translation: The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) strongly condemns the acts of violence that have occurred in Papua. PKS believes that all forms of violence must be dealt with through dialogue. However, terrorism occurring in Papua must be stopped. Original Article: Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (PPP) meminta pemerintah segera mengevaluasi kenaikan tarif listrik. PPP menilai, kenaikan tarif listrik membuat rakyat semakin terbebani. PPP juga meminta pemerintah untuk lebih memperhatikan kebutuhan rakyat yang kurang mampu. English Translation: The United Development Party (PPP) urges the government to immediately evaluate the increase in electricity tariffs. PPP believes that the increase in electricity tariffs is causing the burden on the people to increase. PPP also calls on the government to pay more attention to the needs of the less fortunate.

Netanyahu's power politics

Apart from being protected by US President Joe Biden who admits to being a Zionist, according to the latest polls, more than 80 percent of Israeli citizens support war. However, domestic popularity of PM Benjamin Netanyahu has sharply declined. The Israeli public sees him as incapable of running the country. It is his negligence that allowed Hamas to successfully invade Israeli territory.

Then, after more than six months of war, the hostages have still not been successfully released. Previously, Netanyahu was the target of public criticism for overhauling the judiciary, which weakened democracy. Netanyahu weakened the high court by accusing himself of being involved in corruption.

The above issues have increased public demands for Netanyahu to resign and for early elections to be carried out as soon as possible. Netanyahu refused because his political career would end and there is a high possibility that he will be imprisoned.

On the other hand, the US and Western allies reject Netanyahu's plan to attack Rafah, the southernmost city of Gaza, now inhabited by more than a million Palestinian refugees. An Israeli attack will result in more Palestinian civilian casualties, which will not be tolerated by the global community. Netanyahu argues that Rafah is Hamas' last hiding place, so attacking the city is a necessity to achieve Israel's war goals.

Unlike previous Hamas-Israel conflicts, this time Israel is determined to eradicate Hamas to its roots and release more than 100 remaining hostages.

However, due to global protests against genocide and public pressure on Israel regarding its inability to lead the country, Netanyahu is turning to Iran. Coincidentally, the Israeli public, according to opinion polls, supports a war against Iran and Hezbollah, which is considered the root of Israel's current problems.

As it is known, during the war with Hamas, Iran's proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and the Houthis in Yemen also took part in helping Hamas. Except for Hezbollah, the assistance from other proxies was not significant, mainly because the US-led coalition could restrain Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea.

Palestine is abandoned

By attacking the Iranian consulate, which is certainly a provocation, Netanyahu hopes that Iran will retaliate. If so, the world's attention to Israel's brutality in Gaza will be diverted to the open conflict between Iran and Israel. And, he can survive as a leader because the Israeli public will unite against a common enemy.

The goal of the provocation was successful. Iran has no other alternative but to retaliate in order to maintain its dignity and reputation domestically and its credibility as a powerful military force in the region. In this context, Iran was relatively successful. Although most of their attacks did not hit their targets due to the layered air defense of Israel, supported by the United States, Britain, France, and Jordan.

AFP

A Palestinian family walks past buildings destroyed by previous Israeli attacks on Gaza City, Monday (25/3/2024) local time.

However, this has already been calculated by Iran. In fact, Iran informed the US that the attack would be limited and not intended for a large-scale war with Israel. Its goal is to prevent the US from dancing to Netanyahu's beat. The success of several Iranian missiles hitting Israeli military bases is sufficient as retaliation against Israel's attack on its consulate.

Another message he wants to convey to his audience and Israel: Iran has the power of deterrence. This was reinforced by Biden's statement to Netanyahu, that the US would not take part in retaliatory attacks against Iran. Indeed, Iran can get credit points in this case. De-escalation efforts by the US aim to avoid war with Iran that endangers US interests in the region.

Even worse, it can trigger a global economic crisis along with the increase of world oil prices. Inflation will occur everywhere, including in Indonesia, and the exchange rate of the US dollar will rise, draining the country's foreign exchange reserves and triggering a cash flow to the US.

This will spark a political crisis in developing countries that have not yet recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, the US will lose focus on the conflicts in Ukraine and China's increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

Then, US efforts to mitigate a major war in the Middle East—which could spread to many countries—put Netanyahu in a difficult position. Attacking directly into Iranian territory without US support would be dangerous for Israel. However, Netanyahu could still respond to Iran's attacks in some way in order to maintain Israel's military posture and maintain his power.

Also read: Indonesia and China Support Palestine at the UN

Otherwise, Israeli public pressure for him to resign will grow. So, he thought that only war could save him. Also, it is impossible for the US and its Western allies not to help it if Iran attacks it. Indeed, Biden will lose against Trump if he does not ignore the existence of Israel.

If so, perhaps the issue of Palestine will be neglected. The world will forget their suffering. Some time ago, the UN Security Council held a meeting to consider Palestine's request to become a full member of the UN. Unfortunately, the United States threatened to use its veto power to thwart the effort.

The US argues that peace between Israel and Palestine must be achieved through direct negotiations between the two parties. However, Israel rejects the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. In the past, based on the Oslo Accords of 1993, direct negotiations between the two parties did not yield results due to Israel dictating terms that rejected the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Since 2014, the peace process has stalled because Israel is no longer interested in negotiating. And the US does not use its influence to force Israel to accept a just peace. Indeed, in the end the interests of imperialism and Western hegemony are the main considerations. The values ​​of democracy, human rights, freedom and self-determination are just empty rhetoric.

This can be seen blatantly in Gaza. These values are always defined in a manipulative way according to their interests. In order to win the upcoming US election in November, Biden will be permissive towards all of Israel's actions, even the most heinous ones, in order to ensure support from the Jewish lobby.

However, with power politics like this and unlimited support for Israel, Biden is actually giving Israel the freedom to continue crushing Palestine or striking Iran, regardless of the potential global impacts it may have.

ARSIP PRIBADI

Smith Alhadar Personal Archives 10-17-2014 Opinion Writer Kompas Siang

Smith AlhadarAdvisor to The Indonesian Society for Middle East Studies