Indonesia Anticipates Impact of Iran-Israel Conflict

Indonesia needs to pay close attention to every development because (open conflict) could arise again at any time.

KOMPAS/FRANSISCA ROMANA

Screenshot of the eventOne Table The Forum with the theme "Israel-Iran Power Struggle, Indonesia Threatened?" on Wednesday (17/4/2024) in Jakarta.

The tension between Iran and Israel is feared to trigger a crisis for both the region and globally, especially if it occurs openly and for a prolonged period. The Indonesian government is expected to prepare measures to anticipate the negative impacts of the crisis, especially for the people within the country.

Iran attacked Israel with 300 drones and missiles on April 13, 2024. This was Iran's first direct attack on Israeli territory, which was said to be in response to Israel's attack on Iranian diplomatic facilities in Damascus, Syria, in April 1, 2024. Israel stated that it succeeded in intercepting the attack and only suffered minor damage.

However, the world is now concerned about the continuation of the Iran-Israel conflict after the attack. If not handled properly, it is not impossible for the conflict and violence to escalate and drag many countries into war.

Professor of International Law at the University of Indonesia Hikmahanto Juwana said, Iran's attack was measured and ended immediately. "However, Iran stated that if there is a retaliatory attack (from Israel), Iran will attack in a bigger and more massive way," he said in the talk show One Table The Forum entitled "Israel-Iran Contest of Strength, Indonesia Threatened?”, Wednesday (17/4/2024) in Jakarta.

Also read: Iran and Israel continue to threaten each other with retaliatory attacks

KOMPAS/FRANSISCA ROMANA

Professor of International Law at the University of Indonesia Hikmahanto Juwana during the One Table The Forum event, Wednesday (17/4/2024) in Jakarta.

In the event hosted by senior journalist Budiman Tanuredjo, also present were Chief Expert of the Office of the President Siti Ruhaini Dzuhayatin, senior economist from Indef Didik J Rachbini, and Indonesian Ambassador to Iran Ronny Prasetyo Yuliantoro.

Until several days after the attack on April 13, Iran and Israel were still exchanging threats. However, according to Ronny, the situation in Tehran remains normal and life goes on as usual. Markets, schools, and offices are still operating as normal. Main streets in Tehran also remain congested.

International trade will certainly be disrupted. There are business actors who will be affected.

"Since the April 13 attack, there has been no warning from the Iranian government to the public regarding preparedness. Specifically for Indonesian nationals in Iran, we have been communicating since April 1 regarding the readiness of Indonesian citizens, with a status of level 2 alert," he said.

Ruhaini said that protecting Indonesian citizens is a priority if a conflict occurs. Apart from that, Indonesia continues to strive for de-escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict. "We don't have the burden to talk to countries. "This is a modality to continue diplomatic efforts," he said.

According to Didik, if a war breaks out, especially one that leads to World War III, everything will be destroyed. The most critical impact will be on Indonesia's economy. "International trade will certainly be disrupted. There are entrepreneurs who will be affected. Therefore, now is the time to save the purchasing power of the community," he said.

Hikmahanto agrees that the slowdown of the global economy due to the potential of open conflict between Iran and Israel needs to be anticipated. Currently, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar has exceeded Rp 16,000. The world oil price is also steadily rising and concerns are being raised that it could exceed 100 US dollars per barrel.

Also read: Could Iran's attack trigger a world war?

Looking at the conflict, entrepreneurs also take a passive stance and simply wait. This will have an impact on investment and employment absorption.

The potential for war to break out, according to Hikmahanto, still exists, so countries need to detect and lower tensions. "Indonesia needs to pay attention to every development because (open conflict) can reappear at any time. For example, if Israel continues to attack Gaza. Or if in the US presidential election, the one elected is Donald Trump. We cannot deny that war can break out at any time," he explained.

AFPTV/AFP

A photo from a footage clip by AFPRV on Sunday (14/4/2024) shows an explosion in the sky in Hebron, Palestine, during Iran's attack on Israel.

Diplomatically, according to Hikmahanto, Indonesia's presence is needed because it remains impartial. Indonesia can also continuously urge other countries to realize that developing countries are the ones most affected by war.

The most important thing at the moment, in Hikmahanto's view, is to strengthen the domestic economy. In line with this, Didik stated that Indonesia needs to look to neighboring countries and regions to strengthen the economy, such as ASEAN, East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea), as well as India.