Said Abdullah Wins Madura, Character Strength is More Decisive in East Java XI

The strength of a figure is the key to political victory in the East Java XI electoral district rather than the bond between voters and parties.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

Member of the DPR from the PDI Perjuangan faction who is also Chairman of the DPR Budget Agency, Said Abdullah

A number of interesting phenomena emerged from the results of the legislative election in the East Java XI electoral district, whose territory includes Bangkalan, Sampang, Pamekasan and Sumenep. At first glance it appears that this region on the island of Madura has a strong political attachment to the "old" parties that adorn Indonesian politics.

This can be seen from the three political parties with the top votes in the 2024 DPR Pileg respectively being the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI- P), the Golongan Karya Party (Golkar), and the United Development Party (PPP).

These three parties are three political axes that have been formed for decades since the New Order era. If we look at the total votes for candidates and parties, PDI-P obtained 659,980 votes or 22.16 percent.

Next, Golkar follows with a total of 509,793 votes or 17.12 percent. In third place, PPP acquires 408,412 votes or 13.71 percent. Continuing on, Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa (PKB) receives 316,380 votes or 10.62 percent followed by Partai Amanat Nasional (PAN) with 269,199 votes or 9.04 percent.

Once again, it appears that voters in Madura Island tend to give their votes to parties with long-standing traditions. The top three parties have been around since the New Order era, while the two following parties were born during the Reform era.

After the top five parties, only Nasdem, Demokrat, and Gerindra follow. These three parties, which are relatively newer compared to the top five parties, received approximately 8% of the votes. But, is it true that voters in Madura are more attached to political parties?

Also read: Madura and the Attitude of Resistance

Character strength

Referring to the results of the legislative election in the DPR above, it appears at first glance that the old parties have a strong voter base in Madura Island. However, upon closer examination, it becomes clear that voters in Madura have a stronger attachment to the candidate rather than the political party. This can be seen from the low number of voters who cast their vote for a particular party.

With an open system, voters in Madura are more dominant in voting for individual candidates rather than political parties. This is evident from the results of the PDI-P, for example, out of a total of 659,980 votes, 528,815 votes were obtained by the number 1 candidate, MH Said Abdullah.

In other words, the senior cadre of PDI-P who joined since the 1980s and became a member of DPR since 2004 received 80.1 percent of the total PDI-P votes in Madura. Even looking at the numbers, only 8,087 voters cast their votes for the image of the PDI-P party or 1.2 percent.

Apart from that, MH Said Abdullah has the potential to become the legislative candidate with the most votes throughout Indonesia in this election.

A similar trend, but with slightly different circumstances, is happening in the Golkar Party. Out of the total 509,793 votes received by the party, only 1,349 voters or 0.3 percent voted for the party. Meanwhile, Golkar's candidate with the most votes is Eric Hermawan, who obtained 155,619 votes.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

Chairman of the Budget Committee of the Indonesian House of Representatives, Said Abdullah (left), handing over the Budget Committee report on the discussion of the 2023 state budget to Deputy Chairman of the House of Representatives, Rachmat Gobel, in Jakarta, on Thursday (29/8/2022).

Interestingly, Eric is not a candidate in number 1, but number 4. In addition, there are actually three other Golkar candidates who garnered over 100,000 votes, namely Akhmad Ma'ruf, Aliyono, and Syamsul Arifin. However, Eric Hermawan received the most votes because he was able to dominate in Bangkalan and gain competitive votes in Sampang, Pamekasan, and Sumenep.

The phenomenon of a strong figure such as MH Said Abdullah has occurred with Achmad Baidowi. The number 1 candidate from PPP won 359,189 votes out of a total of 408,412 votes for PPP. This means that Baidowi contributed 87.9 percent of the votes for the party symbolized by the Kabah in Madura.

Not only in the above three parties, the strength of influential figures in determining the party's vote acquisition in Madura Island also occurs in other parties. Hasani bin Zuber from the Democratic Party garnered 236,655 votes or 89.1 percent of the total Democratic votes. In addition, Imron Amrin from the Gerindra Party received 219,778 or 88.7 percent of the total Gerindra votes. Meanwhile, from the PKB, H Syafiuddin won 207,478 votes or 65.6 percent of this party's total achievement.

What is depicted from the data above confirms that the factor local figures greatly determines political victory in the Madura region. However, when talking about legislative elections, there are two things that must be taken into account, namely parliamentary thresholds and also the Sainte Lague calculation model.

Also read: Madura, Mahfud MD, and the 2024 Election Election Betting

DPR seat projections

With the parliamentary threshold in place, if there is no change in the results of the legislative elections announced by the KPU on March 20, 2024, an uncomfortable position must be faced by Achmad Baidowi.

Despite receiving the highest votes as a PPP candidate and supporting the party to earn the third highest votes on the island of Madura, Baidowi is at risk of not making it as a member of DPR for 2024-2029.

From the results announced by the Election Commission, a political party (PPP) obtained 3.87 percent of the national vote, which is less than 0.13 percent below the threshold of 4 percent.

As a result, there is a potential for Achmad Baidowi's voice to be wasted. Even though Baidowi received 12 percent of the vote in Madura, nationally he could be in third place for candidates with the highest vote count.

The number is about 15,000 votes apart from Dedi Mulyadi who came in second nationally. Dedi is a DPR candidate from the Gerindra Party who competed in the West Java VII electoral district.

Next, the results of Kompas's R&D projections refer to the results of the East Java KPU's determination calculated using the Sainte Lague method, there are seven parties that will send their legislative candidates to Senayan. Of the eight seats allocated for the East Java XI electoral district, PDI-P has the potential to get two seats.

The allocation for PDI-P will go to MH Said Abdullah as the "king" of this legislative election. Meanwhile, another seat will be obtained by Ansari, a PDI-P candidate with the second highest vote count of 76,907. Ansari seems to be benefiting from the coattails effect of Said Abdullah.

The reason being, there were other legislative candidates with higher vote counts than Ansari, but they were not successful in passing. Meanwhile, Ansari was able to pass because PDI-P obtained two seats with significant contributions from Said Abdullah for the victory of this party with the bull logo.

Meanwhile, six other seats are projected to be obtained by Eric Hermawan from Golkar, H Syafiuddin from PKB, Slamet Ariyadi from PAN, Willy Aditya from Nasdem, Hasani bin Zuber from Demokrat, and Imron Amin from Gerindra.

From what has happened in Madura, it appears that with strong local figures, the open selection system makes elections very dynamic in the context of legislative elections.

Nevertheless, the accuracy of figures in choosing political parties, as well as the precise calculation of the parliamentary threshold, added to the application of the Sainte Lague calculation method, become the key to the success of legislative candidates in making it to the Parliament. (KOMPAS Research)

Also read: In East Java, the current seat map has the potential to change compared to 2019