The Weakening of the Myanmar Junta, the Right Moment for ASEAN to Orchestrate a Conflict Solution

The weakening of the junta's power is the right moment for ASEAN to push more strongly to resolve the Myanmar crisis.

AP/WARANGKANA WANICHACHEWA

Myanmar residents crossed the Moei River to flee from Myawaddy city in Myanmar to Mae Sot city in Thailand on Saturday (20/4/2024).

The grip of the military junta on Myanmar is getting weaker as important cities in the border region fall into the hands of ethnic resistance groups. Peace is urgently needed to prevent more civilians from becoming victims.

However, it won't be easy. Many resistance groups have taken up arms in Myanmar. Each of them has their own interests.

On April 16, 2024, the junta transferred a number of political prisoners from prison to a special house. Among the prisoners transferred were the leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), Aung San Suu Kyi and former President of Myanmar, U Win Myint. The junta cited hot weather as the reason for the transfer, however, this reason is doubted by many.

Also read: Hot Temperature, Junta Moves Suu Kyi to House Arrest

Kim Aris, Suu Kyi's youngest son who lives in London, England, said the junta's move to move his mother showed that the Myanmar military's position was increasingly pressing. He believes that the junta is using Suu Kyi as a human shield and a bargaining chip if they later have to negotiate with resistance groups.

AFP/POOL/KHAM

The photo taken on September 13, 2018, shows the National League for Democracy (NLD) Leader of Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi, attending a meeting with Vietnamese President Train Dai Quang at the ASEAN World Economic Forum in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Four days prior, Myawaddy, a city in the border area with Thailand, fell into the hands of the Karen National Union (KNU) resistance group. Myawaddy is one of Myanmar's trading hubs. In the past year, the value of commodities passing through the city has reached 1 billion US dollars.

Media reports, eyewitnesses, and the Thai government revealed on Saturday (20/4/2024) that the battle in the area was still raging until Friday night and early Saturday morning. Several Thai media reported that around 200 people crossed from Myanmar to Thailand to take refuge from the fighting.

Thai television channel, NBT, through its social media post, X, mentioned that the resistance group's forces used 40-millimeter machine guns and dropped 20 bombs from unmanned aircraft, targeting around 200 junta soldiers who were then forced to retreat.

Weakening of the junta

The Myanmar crisis occurred after the military junta seized power through a coup on February 1, 2021. Several elected legislators from the 2020 election, including Suu Kyi, were ousted and imprisoned. The elected legislators then formed the National Unity Government (NUG) as a rival.

Also read: Three Years of Military Coup in Myanmar, Resistance to the Junta Increasingly Intensified

The People's Defense Force (PDF), the military wing of NUG, then formed ethnic-based resistance groups, namely KNU, China National Front (CNF), and Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP).

"The fall of Myawaddy is an example of the increasingly weakening of the junta's forces," said NUG spokesman Kyaw Zaw, as quoted by the Financial Times.

MANAN VATSYAYANA

View of the town of Myawaddy, Myanmar, seen from across the Thai side in Mae Sot District on April 11, 2024.

The junta's loss of control over several border areas has caused other countries to doubt the junta's ability to manage the situation in Myanmar. This is evident, among other things, from the comments of the Thai Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin.

"The current regime is starting to lose its strength.... Perhaps now is the right time to establish communication and reach an agreement," said Srettha during an interview with Reuters news agency on April 7, 2024.

Also read: The Myanmar Junta's Grip is Increasingly Fragile on the Border

The weakening of the junta's grip on the border areas has been happening since October 2023, when the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched an attack on the Myanmar-China border. The alliance, formed by the Myanmar National Democratic Army (MNDAA), the Arakan Army, and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, was able to take control of a large area in the State of Shah, including strategic trading routes to China.

Prolonged war

ASEAN researcher at the Political Research Center of the National Research and Innovation Agency (PRP BRIN), Khanisa, Saturday (20/4/2024), said that the junta's ability was decreasing in the face of the protracted war that has lasted three years. Last February, the junta imposed conscription to overcome the shortage of soldiers.

Also read: Many Soldiers Killed, Myanmar Junta Recruits 60,000 Young People for Military Service

"The mandatory military service shows that the junta is experiencing difficulties. They are unable to overcome the resistance from armed militias with their current strength," said Khanisa.

AFP

The photo dated December 10, 2023 shows a female member of the Mandalay People Defense Forces (MDY-PDF) moving towards the battlefield to fight against the military in Shan State, northern Myanmar.

The Peace Institute in Washington DC, United States, estimates that the military junta has lost 21,000 soldiers due to deaths in military operations, desertion, or joining resistance groups. According to the agency, the effective strength of the Tatmadaw is currently only 150,000 people (Kompas, 15/2/2024).

On April 9, 2024, Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported that the military junta had forcibly recruited more than 1,000 Rohingya people from Rakhine. Rohingya residents were forced to participate in mandatory military service, even though they have been denied citizenship through the Myanmar Citizenship Law of 1982.

Also read: Myanmar Military Junta Urged, Ethnic Rohingya Forced to Comply with Military Service

The junta threatened to torture Rohingya people to death and punish their families if the Rohingya people refused military service. They will be trained cruelly for two weeks, then immediately sent to the battlefield.

"It's appalling to see Myanmar, which has committed atrocities against the Rohingya ethnic group for decades, suddenly asking people to fight in their name," said Shayna Bauchner, Asia researcher at HRW.

According to United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk, the civil war in Myanmar resulted in 4,603 civilian deaths since February 2021. Of the 659 victims killed were women and 490 children.

KOMPAS/PASCAL BIN SADJU

A photo taken on April 25th, 2018 shows Rohingya refugees gathered behind barbed wire in temporary shelters at the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh near the Rakhine State.

The crisis in Myanmar also forced 150,000 residents to seek refuge abroad. Some of them, including the Rohingya ethnic group, fled all the way to Aceh. As of December 10, 2023, there were approximately 1,600 Rohingya refugees in the province.

Put pressure on the junta

The five points in the ASEAN consensus on Myanmar have not been implemented. The consensus agreed upon by ASEAN leaders in a special meeting in Jakarta in April 2021 includes the immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar, dialogue among stakeholders, the appointment of an ASEAN special envoy for resolving the Myanmar crisis, humanitarian aid, and visits by ASEAN special envoys and delegations to Myanmar.

In a statement released on Thursday (18/4/2024), ASEAN expressed great concern over the increasing conflicts in Myanmar, including in the Myawaddy region, recently. ASEAN foreign ministers urged all parties to immediately stop the violence in Myanmar.

According to Khanisa, the weakening of the junta's power opens up the possibility for ASEAN to be stronger in pushing for a resolution to the Myanmar crisis. The stalemate of the five consensus points shows that ASEAN must be able to map out other parties that can be engaged in dialogue to break through the impasse.

A report from the United Nations Human Rights Council in 2019 showed that out of the 60 companies affiliated with the Myanmar military, about half of them originated from China. The Bamboo Curtain country also sold weapons worth more than 250 million US dollars to the junta.

KOMPAS/ZULKARNAINI

Rohingya refugee children play at a shelter in the Mina Raya Foundation, Padang Tiji District, Pidie Regency, Aceh, on Saturday (30/3/2024).

The Economist magazine said there was speculation that China was no longer on the side of the junta in the civil war in Myanmar. China did not provide the slightest assistance to the junta when the Three Brothers Alliance launched an attack on Myanmar's border with China in October 2023.

"ASEAN needs to embrace China to help push for a resolution to the crisis in that country. China, as a country with close relations to Myanmar, can encourage the junta to sit together with ASEAN to find a way out of the crisis," said Khanisa.

Waiting for the troika role

Teuku Rezasyah, a lecturer of International Relations at Padjadjaran University, suggests that the psychological proximity between Laos and Myanmar, both of which are Indochinese countries, can be utilized to encourage crisis resolution. As the chair of ASEAN this year, Laos should be given the freedom to speak with Myanmar.

"In future discussions, Laos can involve Indonesia as the leader of ASEAN last year and also Malaysia as the leader next year so that Myanmar understands that this is a sustainable effort," said Rezasyah.

The effort to resolve it through that mechanism is called a troika. The troika is composed of the current chairholder, the previous ASEAN Chair, and the next ASEAN Chair. This mechanism was agreed upon by the ASEAN leaders and was established at the ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, September 2023.

Also read: ASEAN Troika to Settle the Myanmar Issue

Khanisa added that resolving the conflict in Myanmar is not enough for ASEAN to sit down with the junta and its rival government, NUG. There are many other groups in Myanmar whose voices also need to be considered.

"If the junta agrees to hold elections and the pro-democracy group wins, is there any guarantee that a coup like before will not happen again? The biggest challenge in the future is to maintain Myanmar's fragile unity," said Khanisa. (AFP/REUTERS)