There is a tone of frustration from European elites amid competition from the US and China
Europe's survival now depends on its own choices and decisions. Europe must be able to speak according to its interests.
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Farmers' demonstration in front of the European Parliament representative office in Madrid, Spain, in February 2024.
A myriad of problems plague the European Union. Economic growth is slowing amid the aging of the population. High inflation is still threatening and high interest rates are relatively persistent. The competitiveness of its products is weakening. The European Union was also economically affected by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ironically, the European Union cannot be independent in determining its stance in the United States-China geopolitical competition.
Some people in the European Union know that. "We must be able to see clearly that our Europe is in mortality, it could die," said French President Emanuel Macron during a speech at Sorbonne University, Thursday (25/4/2024),
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Macron's statement confirms the contents of an article written by the former French Ambassador to the US, Gérard Araud, in the British daily, The Telegraph edition of 25 August 2023. Araud wrote that Europe's power has faded.
Europe is becoming increasingly irrelevant in international politics and faces many obstacles within Europe - its economic strength is waning and populist politicians are emerging. Brexit, the nickname for the UK leaving the EU, is one of the signs of the cracks within the EU. The issue is that the EU does not see that its ability has come to an end.
President of France, Emmanuel Macron (left), speaks with a farmer during the opening of the 60th International Agriculture Fair (Salon de l'Agriculture) at the Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris, France, February 24, 2024.
Macron stated that, with all of that, the EU must be cohesive, increasingly united, and able to determine its own stance and transform itself from within. He said the EU is not arming itself strongly amidst the geopolitical competition between the US and China. Europe feels like a dead end and is besieged on its own.
Macron's speech aims to wake up the EU to anticipate future situations. Macron's statement is very significant and relevant, including for Asia. This is becoming increasingly important as power struggles are currently taking place between the US and China to create the US bloc and the Chinese bloc.
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Asia is not an exception. Take, for example, Bangladesh, as well as the Pacific region consisting of island or archipelagic countries, which are currently in a struggle for influence between the US and China. Argentina, which used to be friendly with China, is now distancing itself from the country. Mexico has to comply with the US's wishes in order to suppress China's business interests.
Macron himself voiced the similar situation experienced by other regions, how to behave amid the competition between the US and China. Macron also mentioned that the EU could be threatened by the competition between the US, China, and Russia if it does not have its own strategy. Thus, he called for the need for a credible defense strategy for the EU.
US Tools
It is very easy to understand the EU's current situation, as stated by Macron. Since World War II, the US and the EU have formed a strong trans-Atlantic relationship, both economically and defensively, through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Trans-Atlantic relations are the motor of the world economy, dominating the world order, from economics, social, to politics and defense.
When the trans-Atlantic economy was still strong, this relationship was in a comfortable situation. The EU never complained significantly about any conditions. The EU and the US were united in all aspects of international affairs.
In international trade regulations, for example, the EU and the US are the decisive players in the International Trade Organization (WTO). The nickname "Green Room" emerged, referring to the green-colored room at the WTO office in Geneva, Switzerland, indicating that the parties with the most influence are only the EU and the US.
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In everything, the EU has become a tool or a follower of the US, as expressed by the geopolitical expert from the University of Chicago, John Mearsheimer. "The EU enjoys relative security, especially militarily, because of US commitments through NATO." Of course, the EU also enjoys the trans-Atlantic trade bloc and vice versa.
Ironically, Europe is being carried away by the US which is also using Europe as a world governing power, as US academic Noam Chomsky said. In fact, there was no resistance from Europe, when the US-controlled world system violated the US-led unipolar system. Japan did something similar.
The situation has changed
The situation has changed. Macron warns that the rules of the global game have changed. The EU is in disarray and at risk because it lacks a strategy. The change has occurred with the relative rise of the Russian economy under President Vladimir Putin. Russia, which was once thought to become a democracy and part of the trans-Atlantic camp, did not come to fruition.
European Union farmers' rally in Brussels, Belgium, in March 2024.
Furthermore, China has not only risen economically, but it can also now compete with the military strength of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. The hope that China would develop into a democracy, which was approached by President Richard Nixon, has also not been realized. "The hope for the realization of China as a democratic country has vanished," said Niall Ferguson, a historian from Stanford University, on various occasions.
The power of economy and military has shifted drastically, no longer monopolized by trans-Atlantic powers. In terms of economy, European products no longer see the US as their main market. This is because there are larger markets outside of the trans-Atlantic region. The Russia-China alliance is also becoming stronger, with military technology that is increasingly able to rival the US.
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The most striking change in trans-Atlantic power is when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Trans-Atlantic was relatively powerless in dealing with the situation, only attempting to pressure China not to support Russia, a call that was answered by President Xi Jinping with the phrase "China-Russia relations are as solid as a rock."
Russian President Vladimir Putin receives Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow, Russia, in March 2023.
Ironically, this invasion hits the EU economy the hardest. Economic sanctions against Russia for its collaboration with the EU-US resulted in a relative halt in EU-Russia trade. The effect has been a scarcity of goods and the cause of inflation in Europe, especially in the price of fuel.
Optimistic side
However, as Arraud wrote, the EU is still mesmerized by the power of the US. The EU is unable to resist US pressure and must follow what the US wants. Moreover, the EU continues to uphold the idea of democratization towards Russia and China, as if only the democratic system can move the rest of the world.
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The latest development is that the EU also got dragged into the economic war between the US and China. For example, the Netherlands has been advised to hinder the production of semiconductor equipment to China. The EU is also investigating the issue of China's electric vehicle subsidies sold in the European market, while China threatens to block European products in the Chinese market.
Chomsky believes that Europe will encounter problems if it continues to be under the influence of the US, which continues to emphasize the unipolar system despite being unsuitable for the times. In other words, Europe will become a victim of constantly following the US's lead. There will be a fading and deindustrialization of Europe if it continues to hold onto old attitudes.
Containers for Dutch semiconductor machinery manufacturer ASML's products in Veldhoven in March 2024.
Europe is expected to become a catalyst for easing the tensions between the US and China, which will have a positive impact on taming Russia. In the past two years, opinions have been emerging in Europe that the US view of "the threat of China" is not an immediate concern for the EU. "I think the US view of China does not automatically become a thought of the European Union," said Colin Alexander, a political expert on China from Nottingham Trent University.
From the US side itself, there are still seeds for derisking even though it is not yet a common view in the US. Director General of the US Army Christine Wormuth said that she was a party who saw that reducing tensions was important in US-China relations.
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Marcon has stated that the sustainability of Europe now depends on its own choices and decisions. Europe must be able to speak according to its own interests. "Europe must show that it is not a puppet of the US and Europe must also be able to speak on its own will with other regions," said Macron.
This is the optimistic side amidst a world currently being pulled towards the formation of the China and US blocks. Of course, it is not easy to make Europe independent from the US. Pressure from the US will continue in order for Europe to remain a follower.
However, the current opinion developing in Europe is to strengthen self-reliance. This opinion has entered the Brussels area, the headquarters of the EU, rather than being limited to just a handful of experts' opinions.
There is another issue, which is that Europe is currently experiencing economic, social, and political declines. Can Europe revive its competitiveness so that it continues to be reckoned with in international negotiations? This is also the call of Macron, for Europe to reform from within. (AP/AFP/REUTERS)
Simon Saragih, Kompas Journalist 1989-2023
