Maintaining Democracy, PDI-P and PKS are Expected to Be Outside the Government
The presence of political power outside government is needed to maintain democracy.
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JAKARTA, KOMPAS - The Indonesian Democracy Party of Struggle and the Prosperous Justice Party are expected to take positions outside the government after Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka are appointed as president and vice president for 2024-2029 in October. Power outside government remains important so that democracy is maintained and the checks and balances mechanism between the legislature and the executive continues to operate.
Unlike other political parties which have stated their support, even joining the ranks of the coalition supporting the government of Prabowo-Gibran, PDI-P and PKS a> have not yet decided on a political stance. PKS, in fact, is the only political party supporting the Anies Rasyid Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair which has not yet decided whether to join the Prabowo-Gibran government or remain outside the government.
Efforts by the political party led by Ahmad Syaikhu to explore cooperation with Prabowo-Gibran have not received a positive response. Prabowo did not attend the hahalbihalal and tasyakuran celebration of PKS's 22nd anniversary on Saturday (27/4/2024), despite PKS Secretary General Aboebakar Al Habsy announcing that PKS had rolled out the red carpet for Prabowo.
The issue of air pollution is not new. The condition of the community threatened by air pollution has been occurring for a long time. There is also no shortage of research evidence indicating the threats of air pollution's impacts. However, in reality, this has not been able to push for significant efforts in controlling air pollution. Thus, residents are increasingly suffering, living amidst air pollution. Another party supporting the Anies-Muhaimin pair, the Party of the National Awakening, has declared its support for the Prabowo-Gibran government. Even the Nasdem Party has decided to join the ranks of political parties supporting Prabowo-Gibran.
Meanwhile, the two political parties supporting Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, namely PDI-P and United Development Party, have not yet clearly stated their position regarding the role they will play in the new government. PDI-P will decide whether to join the government's supporting coalition or remain outside of it, during the national working meeting in May.
Similarly, PPP will decide its position in the Prabowo-Gibran government during the national working meeting or national leadership meeting. Currently, the party with the symbol of the Kaaba is still focused on challenging the results of the legislative election to the Constitutional Court. The lawsuit is related to the decision of the General Elections Commission which determined the PPP vote count to be 5.87 million or 3.87 percent of the national valid vote. The vote count for the party led by M. Mardiono is still below the parliamentary threshold of 4 percent.
Also read: PKS Political Position Has Not Been Decided, Salim Segaf Emphasizes Togetherness
Observing the current political dynamics, Ahmad Khoirul Umam, a lecturer in Political Science and International Studies at Paramadina University, when contacted from Jakarta on Sunday (28/4/2024), stated that recent political lobbying has occurred due to the limited political power accumulation of Prabowo-Gibran in parliament. This situation has opened up wider scope for accommodative politics.
To bring about a stable political and governmental environment during the transition of power, at least 60 percent of parliamentary strength is needed, according to Umam. However, looking at the seats acquired by the political parties supporting Prabowo-Gibran in parliament, it only reaches 48.3 percent.
"In this context, Prabowo's approach with Nasdem and PKB will at least complete the political strength of the Prabowo-Gibran government to around 70 percent. Even if PPP's lawsuit is granted by MK, the accumulation of the Prabowo-Gibran government coalition could become even fatter, around 74 percent," said Umam.
The number is already more than enough for a presidential government in the midst of a multi-party system. Furthermore, the Prabowo-Gibran administration is expected to remain open to adequate balancing forces outside the government. This is important to maintain a system of checks and balances in the mechanisms of democracy and governance.
Opposition signal
Umam predicts that PDI-P and PKS will choose to remain outside the government. Several signals have been shown by both parties to stay outside the government.
First, the absence of Puan Maharani as the Speaker of the DPR during the appointment of Prabowo-Gibran as the elected presidential and vice-presidential candidates by the KPU on Wednesday (24/4/2024). Puan, who is the daughter of the Chairperson of PDI-P Megawati Soekarnoputri, also serves as the Chairperson of the DPP PDI-P.
PDI-P and PKS will choose to remain outside the government.
Secondly, there is information from the Chairman of the Honorary Division of the PDI-P DPP, Komarudin Watubun, stating that there is a termination of the membership status of President Joko Widodo and Gibran in the PDI-P.
The strong signal for the political choice of PDI-P to take an opposition stance during the era of the Prabowo-Gibran government is the absence of the Ganjar-Mahfud pair during the announcement of the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election.
Then, there are also several reasons why Prabowo did not immediately open the door for PKS. Since Prabowo approached Jokowi after his defeat in the 2019 election, he has been trying to transform from a figure previously portrayed with conservative Islamic political power into a figure who is more characterized as a nationalist.
In this context, according to Umam, Prabowo is trying to erase any trace of his closeness with conservative Islamic groups, including PKS. In practice, after joining Jokowi's government, Prabowo has almost never shown any closeness and intensity of meetings with PKS elites.
"So, if Prabowo opens the door for PKS after his victory in the 2024 election, it will pose a risk of him being labeled as someone who facilitates the entry of right-wing conservative Islamic political forces into power, which will create an allergy among nationalist political forces, including moderate Muslims, particularly the Nahdliyin community who have proven to provide adequate political support for Prabowo-Gibran's victory," said Umam.
In fact, he continued, Prabowo had no obstacles in accepting PKS. This is because PKS has close ties and was once Prabowo's main supporter in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections. However, it is very likely that there are parties in the ranks who support Prabowo-Gibran, especially from President Joko Widodo's circle , which opposed PKS's desire to join.
Also read: Considering Various Inputs, PDI-P Holds National Working Meeting to Formulate Political Direction
"There are numerous public policies from President Jokowi's government that have been rejected by a certain political party. It is understandable, therefore, that Jokowi and his circle have their own resistance in providing open space for that party in the new government under the Prabowo-Gibran leadership," said Umam.
However, if PKS and PDI-P ultimately remain as balancing forces in the government, said Umam, it would actually benefit the Prabowo-Gibran administration. Because, PDI-P and PKS are like oil and water, with the ideological bases of both parties being vastly different, even opposing.
"The two parties may have the opportunity to play a critical role in the context of public policy, but they will struggle to build a solid and adequate opposition political movement due to acute factionalism caused by ideological differences," said Umam.
Dangerous for democracy
The Dean of the Faculty of Law at Brawijaya University, Malang, Aan Eko Widiarto stated that Prabowo's recent maneuvers are seen as wanting to expand his coalition of supporters. The goal is to increase the government's voice in parliament. "If the government's voice in parliament is strong, any orders will certainly be smoother," he said.
Aan is worried that with the merger of PKB and Nasdem, the existence of balancing parties outside the government will become smaller. In fact, "opposition" is very important in a democratic country. "If everything essentially becomes an autocracy, meaning that only one government is in power starting from the government and its parties in one frame, then there is no balance and it is dangerous for democracy. "There should be a consistent position from the parties whose presidential and vice presidential candidates do not win in the 2024 presidential election," he said.
Finally, according to Aan, in the pillar of democracy, apart from political parties, the remaining hope lies with civil society and the press. "But, if those who serve as balancing forces become exhausted, then farewell. Democracy is in danger and we must not let it accumulate like the New Order era. Power is based on branches of government. This will become a time bomb in the future, and a boomerang in democracy," he said.