Who is the candidate for governor challenging Khofifah in East Java?

The election for Governor of East Java was dominated by the grand coalition and PKB. Khofifah's name has become a political magnet in itself.

KOMPAS/BAHANA PATRIA GUPTA

Khofifah Indar Parawansa took a photo with volunteers before sending off the Lintas Batas Disabilitas group at the East Java Governor's office in Surabaya on Tuesday (28/11/2023).

The election of governor and deputy governor of East Java this year has the potential to be a battle between the large coalition supporting the incumbent governor, Khofifah Indar Parawansa, and a figure promoted by the National Awakening Party which incidentally became the political party that won the election in this province.

The competitive landscape for governor candidates in East Java is starting to heat up after the presidential election entered its final stages. The name Khofifah, Governor of East Java for the 2018-2023 period, is a strong figure who is predicted to run again in the election for governor-deputy governor of East Java next November.

At least now Khofifah, who is also the General Chair of Muslimat Nahdlatul Ulama, has pocketed a ticket to run for the regional elections.

Starting from December of last year, four political parties - Gerindra, Golkar, Democrat, and PAN - have already expressed their support to endorse him as the candidate for governor of East Java for the next five years.

Even the Democratic Party has officially handed over a recommendation to the Khofifah and Emil Elestianto Dardak pair to run again in the East Java Regional Elections this coming November.

Meanwhile, three other political parties, namely Gerindra, Golkar, and PAN, who also support Khofifah as a gubernatorial candidate, have not yet determined who they will support as the vice-governor candidate.

If referring to political parties that support Khofifah, all four are part of the coalition of Koalisi Indonesia Maju (KIM) which supports the pair of Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the 2024 Presidential Election. Khofifah is also noted to be a part of TKN Prabowo-Gibran that successfully led this pair to victory in East Java.

Of the four political parties that have announced their support for Khofifah as a gubernatorial candidate, their respective seat acquisitions in the East Java Regional Legislative Council (DPRD) are less than 20 percent, thus they must form coalitions with other political parties.

Based on the results of the East Java DPRD election determination by the East Java KPUD, out of the 120 contested seats, if the above four political parties form a coalition, they will already have 52 seats or the equivalent of 43.3 percent of the total 120 seats in the East Java DPRD.

Also read: The Contest for DPR Seats for the East Java I Electoral District is Enlivened by Incumbents

PKB dominance

According to the election results set by the East Java KPU, the National Awakening Party (PKB) is the only political party that secured more than 20 percent of the seats in the East Java DPRD.

The voter-based political party nahdliyin won 27 seats out of 120 seats in the provincial legislative body. This number is equivalent to 22.5 percent of the total seats.

With the control of that seat, PKB has the right to nominate a candidate pair for governor and vice governor without having to form a coalition with other political parties.

However, the signal that PKB will still form a coalition with other political parties remains open. This was seen in the meeting between the Chairman of PKB, Muhaimin Iskandar, and the Acting Chairman of the United Development Party (PPP), Muhammad Mardiono, at the PKB's headquarters last week.

KOMPAS/BAHANA PATRIA GUPTA

Citizens held up posters while waiting for the newly inaugurated Governor of East Java, Khofifah Indar Parawansa, and Vice Governor of East Java, Emil Elistianto Dardak, who were visited by President Joko Widodo during a procession from Masjid Al-Akbar to Gedung Grahadi, Surabaya, on Thursday (14/2/2019). This pair was again supported by the Democratic Party in the East Java regional election in November 2024.

In a statement to the media after the meeting, Muhaimin indirectly mentioned Khofifah's name when asked by the media about who would be supported by PKB and PPP intending to collaborate in the upcoming November East Java regional elections. "Who is she? Her identity is still a secret. If it leaks and Khofifah finds out, it could be dangerous," said Muhaimin in response to the media's question.

Referring to Muhaimin's response, the signal of a candidate for governor who will be supported by PKB and PPP may be someone other than Khofifah's name.

With 27 seats in hand, PKB will open the opportunity for a coalition with PPP, which obtained 4 seats in the East Java Regional House of Representatives (DPRD). These two political parties have a total of 31 seats or equivalent to 25.8 percent of the total seats in the East Java DPRD.

If formed, this coalition will become the second axis that has the opportunity to balance the four-party axis that is included in KIM by carrying Khofifah as their candidate.

Also read: In East Java, the current seat map has the potential to change compared to 2019

Potential third axis

Out of the 10 political parties that won seats in the Jatim DPRD, four remaining political parties have the potential to build a third axis. They are PDI Perjuangan (PDI-P) with 21 seats (17.5 percent), Nasdem with 10 seats (8.3 percent), PKS with 5 seats (4.2 percent), and PSI with 1 seat (0.8 percent). If totaled, they reach 37 seats or 30.8 percent of the total seats in the Jatim DPRD.

However, the potential of the third axis may not necessarily align with the combination of these four political parties. The political stance signals from PDI-P and PKS, for example, who have also communicated with Khofifah on several occasions, also indicate the possibility of changing the constellation in the first axis.

Moreover, on one occasion, the Chairman of the Regional Leadership Council of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) in East Java, Said Abdullah, stated that the party hopes to establish cooperation with Khofifah.

PDIP hopes that Khofifah can be paired with its cadres who are currently serving as regional heads in East Java, such as Bupati Sumenep Achmad Fauzi, Bupati Trenggalek Mochamad Nur Arifin, and Bupati Kediri Hanindhito Himawan Pramana.

However, this opportunity will surely face the interests of several political parties that have previously supported Khofifah, especially the Democratic Party, which has nominated Emil Dardak as the potential deputy governor candidate for Khofifah.

Moreover, the political track record of the two political parties, namely PDI-P and Democratic Party, has never been in a coalition together in the contest for the East Java gubernatorial election. Both have always been in different coalition positions.

In the direct election of the first period for East Java governor in 2008, PDI-P supported the Sutjipto-Ridwan Hisjam pair, while the Democratic Party supported the Soekarwo-Saifullah Yusuf pair who later won the contest.

The political differences between PDI-P and Demokrat continue in the 2013 East Java Regional Election. At that time, PDI-P endorsed its own cadre pair, Bambang DH-Said Abdullah.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party continues to support the incumbent pair, Soekarwo-Saifullah Yusuf. The differing positions persist in the 2018 East Java Regional Elections. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle supports the pair of Saifullah Yusuf-Puti Guntur Soekarno, while the Democratic Party supports Khofifah-Emil Elestianto Dardak.

Could there be a potential political coalition difference between PDI-P and Demokrat in the 2024 East Java regional election? The signal from PDI-P's attitude of hoping Khofifah will partner up with their cadre could be a reflection of the two political parties' chance of being in opposition once again.

However, despite the political dynamics happening within their respective parties, Khofifah has become a unique magnet for parties to contest in the Jatim regional election this year.

Who is the gubernatorial candidate who will become Khofifah's competitor? There are two possibilities. First, if the axis of PKB and PPP can be formed with a strong figure capable of balancing Khofifah's popularity. Second, if PDI-P and Demokrat cannot meet again, which will give birth to a third axis.

Regarding which figure emerges as Khofifah's competitor, that will depend on the dynamics of this political party. However, if the two axes above fail to form and find a strong figure to counter Khofifah, the opportunity for regional elections with only one candidate pair could occur. (R&D COMPAS)

Also read: Winning against Prabowo in East Java, Khofifah is nominated as a candidate for governor by KIM