Conflict in Ukraine and the Threat of Nuclear Weapons

Ukraine's increasingly pressing position due to a lack of troops and weapons has made European countries impatient.

AFP/WOJTEK RADWANSKI

French soldiers watch as Ukrainian soldiers train to prepare ammunition at a location, in Poland, April 4, 2024.

The ongoing military conflict in Ukraine has raised the threat of nuclear weapon use. All parties involved can no longer rely solely on military approaches to achieving their goals.

Russia a few days ago announced preparations for tactical nuclear weapons or tactical nuclear weapons (tac nukes). The exercise was held as Moscow's response to France's stance that it did not rule out sending its troops to Ukraine to help Kyiv. Britain also invited Ukraine to use the weapons provided by London to attack targets on Russian territory.

The stance of the two Western countries, who are also members of the NATO defense pact, for Russia, is a violation of the unwritten agreement that has been in place until now. Since Russia conducted its "military operation" or attack on Ukrainian territory on February 22, 2022, the support of Western or NATO member countries has been done indirectly. For example, some NATO members have trained Ukrainian soldiers to perform better in combating Russian forces or be more skilled in using Western aid weapons. So far, there have been no European military forces directly engaging in combat against Russia in Ukraine. In addition, the rockets or artillery provided to Ukraine so far have been reminded by the donors not to be used to attack Russian territory.

POOL/AFP/ALEXANDER KAZAKOV

Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin took the oath of office as president at the Kremlin Palace, Moscow, Tuesday (7/5/2024).

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However, Ukraine's position, which continues to be pressed due to the lack of troops and weapons, has led European countries such as France and England to become impatient, especially since aid from the US has not yet arrived. Statements from President of France Emmanuel Macron and Foreign Minister of England David Cameron emerged as a result. France stated that it was not ruling out the possibility of sending troops, while England allowed its weapons to be used to attack Russian territory.

Moscow's reaction was harsh by conducting military readiness exercises deploying tactical nuclear weapons. This signal indicates that President Vladimir Putin is not hesitant to use these weapons if the West becomes too involved in helping Ukraine.

In terms of the scale of destruction, the impact of damage caused by tac nukes is much smaller than that of strategic nuclear weapons (strategic nuclear weapons). Most of our minds imagine the devastating impact of strategic nuclear weapons that destroy at least one city, such as the use of nuclear bombs towards the end of World War II in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

On the other hand, tactical nuclear weapons are used for warfare purposes on the battlefield. In other words, tactical nuclear weapons are used to win battles in the field, not to devastate one or several cities so that the enemy is forced to surrender unconditionally.

AFP/LUDOVIC MARIN

French President Emmanuel Macron meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Elysee Palace, in Paris, Monday (6/5/2024).

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Nevertheless, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is expected to have long-term adverse effects. The resulting radioactivity will cause extensive damage to the targeted areas. The soil will contain toxins and become unusable for cultivation and habitation. The most concerning thing is that the use of tactical nuclear weapons may potentially trigger retaliation with the use of the same type of weapon. Hence, we might just have to wait for the use of strategic nuclear weapons.

Could Putin deploy tactical nuclear weapons? Christopher S Chivvis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and US intelligence official in Europe 2018-2021, in ”The World Must Reject Russia's nuclear Posturing – but Not Ignore the Danger” (theguardian .com), reminded that Putin can do anything. Almost no one thought that he would carry out military operations in Crimea in 2014 and Ukraine in 2022. However, he did both of these things. So, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is not impossible.

In this situation, it is important that parties involved in the conflict in Ukraine, namely Russia, Ukraine, and NATO members, particularly Western European countries and the United States, strive for peaceful approaches and negotiations to end the war. Ongoing battles force the use of armed power logic continuously. If conventional weapons fail, why not try nuclear weapons? In order to prevent worsening conditions that also affect the world economy, the parties involved must use a different approach, namely peaceful approaches through negotiations that do not end in the use of nuclear weapons.