General Meetings Will Be Decisive
The electability differences between the two pairs of candidates for the 2019 presidential election is narrowing. The general meetings on campaign for the 2019 general election will determine the results of the presidential election.
JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The general meetings during the campaign period for the 2019 general election from March 24 to April 13 will determine the results of the 2019 presidential election. This is because about one month before the election on April 17 the electability difference between the presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairs narrowing, thereby causing the contestation to be tighter.
This could further spur the party machinery and volunteer movements to garner the votes of potential voters, especially those who have not yet made their choice and others who are still hesitant. The narrowing of the electability difference is captured in the results of a Kompas R&D survey conducted from late February to early March 2019. It involved 2,000 respondents spread across 34 provinces with a margin of error of 2.2 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent. The electability of Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Ma\'ruf Amin reached 49.2 percent, while Prabowo Subianto and Sandiaga Uno stood at 37.4 percent. The electability difference between the two candidates was 11.8 percent.
The electability difference between the two pairs of candidates is smaller than the electability difference based on the Kompas R&D survey in October 2018, which reached 19.9 percent when Jokowi and Ma\'ruf took the lead. Meanwhile, respondents who have not yet made any choices have also dropped from 14.7 to 13.4 percent.
Slightly stuck
On Tuesday, the director of volunteers for the Jokowi-Ma\'ruf national campaign team, MamanImanulhaq, said, from the results of evaluation, Jokowi and Ma\'ruf \'s slight electability increase was due to a number of factors. First, the supporting coalition party machine has not moved optimally. Because of the presidential and legislative elections, to be held simultaneously, the party is unable to focus on winning the presidency and vice-presidency.
Second, a long campaign period makes people and volunteers tired. Third was the issue of high political costs and the enthusiasm of volunteers, which was not as complicated as the 2014 presidential election.
According to Maman, in the remaining campaign period, his team would optimize the volunteer machine to campaign door-to-door, adding that they wanted to embrace floating voters who have not yet made their choice.
This door-to-door campaign, Maman said, would be carried out to ensure voters came to the polling stations (TPS) on voting day. This is because there are several regions where Jokowi and Ma\'ruf have immense supporters on paper, at least, but they are not yet safe because of low voter participation. If this area is not secured, it can have a significant effect on votes.
"In several places, such as in Indramayu, West Java, participation can be low because farmers are harvesting. Therefore, socializing and inviting the public to come to the polling stations will be the key to victory. Just because the area is safe doesn\'t mean it can be taken care of," said Maman.
In order to make this effort effective, volunteers will be asked to go to people\'s homes. The message to be delivered during the campaign include a presentation of Jokowi\'s achievements, his programs in the future, and how to anticipate hoaxes.
A number of active volunteers will also be asked to campaign across regions in areas that have not been covered. At the same time, volunteers are also expected to work together with the coalition party machine in the regions.
There are three regions that will become campaign priorities, namely Jakarta, West Java and Banten. In those areas, the electability of Jokowi and Ma\'ruf is still behind Prabowo and Sandiaga.
From March 24 to April 13, Jokowi and Ma\'ruf will campaign together in DKI Jakarta and Banten. They will go to Banten on the first day of the campaign and visit Jakarta on the last day.
The machines move well
Prabowo and Sandiaga\'s National Winning Body will disclose certain programs to the public, especially the unemployment problem and decrease in basic food prices. The volunteer movement will be the backbone to convince floating voters.
The coordinator of the National Winning Body, Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak, said the number of floating voters, which is still in double digits, showed that public distrust in Jokowi was still high, adding that the number of people who wanted a change in government was huge.
Therefore, Dahnil added that the campaign carried out by Prabowo and Sandiaga, along with the political machine, was going well.
"We will offer real changes to the nation\'s main problems, namely the unaffordable price of basic commodities and sufficient and qualified employment for citizens," he said.
Dahnil added that volunteers would spearhead the drive to gain the trust of floating voters, especially through door-to-door campaigns. The role of hundreds of volunteers, he said, had helped increase Prabowo and Sandiaga\'s electability up to a month before voting day.
Determining issuesThe executive director of the Center for Political Studies at the University of Indonesia, Aditya Perdana, said to boost electability in the remaining campaign period, the narrative of economic issues would attract the attention of floating voters. He added that, from this point of view, the Prabowo-Sandiaga camp was superior because it was able to take advantage of its position as an opposition. Meanwhile, Jokowi and Ma\'ruf have so far been unable to build on their campaign promises, especially in the economic field.
"The incumbent should be more effective in utilizing this issue by presenting achievements and offering new breakthroughs. However, now they are only busy countering opposition criticism without trying to bring up stronger programs. The creativity of the incumbent is less explored," said Aditya.
According to him, there was still time for the incumbent to make improvements. The key is the ability to mobilize volunteers and coalition parties to be solid and more intense when campaigning.
The head of the Political Research Center at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Firman Noor, said volunteers have a central role in winning the 2019 presidential election. This is because volunteers work more with a high level of urgency than political party machines.
Volunteers, who do not have material support, are considered to be more enthusiastic and they have a high sense of ownership of the supported figures.
"Volunteers are icons because without them a candidate will be difficult to sell. Volunteers who, without expecting material support, have far greater motivation because they tend to be able to bring creativity and courage," he said.
Meanwhile, on the increase in electability of Prabowo and Sandiaga, Firman added that this was caused by to two things. First, Prabowo\'s image is more people-friendly and this approach makes him more acceptable to the people compared to the contestation five years ago.
Second, Prabowo and Sandiaga offer concrete programs needed by the community in the economic field. The pair consistently offer solutions to economic problems, such as the affordability of prices of basic commodities and efforts to overcome unemployment.
(AGE/SAN)