Post-Election Political Party
The General Elections Commission (KPU) has officially announced the results of the 2019 Legislative Election vote tally.The result are as follows: The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) won 19.33 percent of vote; the Gerindra Party 12.57 percent; the Golkar Party 12.31 percent; the National Awakening Party (PKB) 9.69 percent; the NasDem Party 9.05 percent; the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) 8.21 percent; the Democratic Party 7.77 percent; the National Mandate Party (PAN) 6.84 percent; the United Development Party (PPP) 4.52 percent; the United Indonesia Party (Perindo) 2.67 percent; the Berkarya Party 2.09 percent; the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) 1.89 percent; the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) 1.54 percent; the Crescent Star Party (PBB) 0.79 percent; the Garuda Party 0.5 percent; and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI) 0.22 percent.
The PDI-P, widely considered the most left-leaning party, won 19.33 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, PKS, considered to represent the right wing, won 8.21 percent of the vote. Center right parties such as PKB, PAN and PPP, collectively won 21.05 percent of votes.
Centrist parties include Golkar, NasDem, Democrat and Gerindra. Golkar and the other parties, considered its “derivatives”, collectively won 41.7 percent of the vote. Parties without House seats, namely Perindo, Berkarya, Hanura and PKPI, which won a collective 7.02 percent of the vote, can also be considered as derivatives of Golkar. However, the coalitions in the presidential election did not fall in line with these groupings.
The PPP was lucky to get House seats, after being rocked by a corruption scandal involving its chairman just one month before the election. If the electoral threshold is increased for the 2024 election, the party may be kicked out of the House. This could be prevented by solid internal consolidation within the party in the next five years. However, this will not be easy and will depend on who the party picks as its next chairman. We know how difficult it can be to find a figure to replace Muhammad Romahurmuziy as PPP chairman.
With longer preparation, better organization and a more active political engine, the Berkarya Party could have surpassed the 4-percent threshold. Perindo’s failure shows that funding and massive electronic media campaigns alone are not enough to reach this threshold. Strong party figures are necessary to attract voters. Hanura’s failure also shows the important role these figures play in winning voters’ support.
If their representatives in the DPRD can work well and maintain their integrity, the PSI may have a good future as it may win support from millennials and those wishing for fundamental shifts in national politics. The party can be seen as being in the same stream as the PDI-P. Meanwhile, it will be better for both the PBB and the PKPI to cease going on their political journeys alone and merge with other closely aligned parties.
Gerindra is still seen as identical to Prabowo. Therefore, the party will face a huge problem if Prabowo steps down as chairman. Prabowo may still serve as chief patron but it will not be easy to replace him as chairman.
The Democratic Party may face a simpler challenge. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) can serve as chief patron while his son Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) chairs the party. The PDI-P will also face a similar problem if Megawati Soekarnoputri steps down as chairwoman. It will be better for Megawati to serve as chief patron with expanded authority. This must be carried out soon to give the party ample preparation time for 2024.
Islamic partiesThe 1955 election resulted in a political map that has dominated national politics ever since. At the time, the four largest parties were the Indonesian National Party (PNI), the Masyumi, the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI). The general understanding is that PNI supporters would later vote for the PDI-P and Golkar, Masyumi supporters would later vote for the PKS and the PAN, NU supporters would later vote for the PKB and PPP, while most descendants of PKI members later joined the PDI-P.
As it turned out, such an understanding is not entirely correct. An exit poll from a survey agency revealed a fact not many people may know. The political preference of NU supporters is as follows: the PKB enjoys support from 15 percent, the Gerindra Party 13 percent, PDI-P 17 percent, Golkar 12 percent, NasDem 9 percent, PKS 7 percent, the Democratic Party 8 percent, PAN 5 percent and PPP 5 percent.
Only 15 percent of NU supporters back the PKB, below the amount of support enjoyed by the PDI-P. Combined with support for the PPP, the total amount is 20 percent. Another pattern is that Golkar and its derivative parties dominate support from the NU community.
Meanwhile, political support within the Muhammadiyah community is as follows: PKB 5 percent, Gerindra 12 percent, PDIP 1 percent, Golkar 9 percent, NasDem 8 percent, PKS 12 percent, PAN 19 percent, the Democratic Party 7 percent and PPP 4 percent. A higher percentage of Muhammadiyah supporters chose PAN over other parties. Among supporters of other Islamic organizations, the political support is as follows: PKB 7 percent, Gerindra 13 percent, PDIP 12 percent, Golkar 17 percent, NasDem 7 percent, PKS 14 percent, PAN 8 percent, the Democratic Party 8 percent and PPP 3 percent.
More NU supporters voted for Golkar and its derivative parties than PKB or PPP. Similarly, more Muhammadiyah members voted for Golkar and its derivative parties than PAN or PKS. A similar pattern
was also found among supporters of other Islamic organizations and among those who do not support any of these organizations.
Reduction in number of parties
There must be an effort to reduce the number of parties. The electoral threshold must be increased gradually, at least by 1 percent in every election. A 10-percent threshold will be effective in reducing the number of parties gaining House seats. Based on the current election result, only three parties would surpass a 10-percent threshold. One or two more parties may have a slim chance of making it through.
The Golkar Party has proven it can consistently gain huge numbers of votes. The party does not depend on certain figures. It is expected that the party will still be in the House if the electoral threshold is increased to 10 percent.
The PDI-P will also be able to surpass a 10-percent threshold. Even without Megawati, the party will still be able to do this. The Gerindra Party, however, may or may not be able to surpass this threshold. Similarly, it may be difficult for NasDem and the Democratic Party to surpass it.
Among the parties strongly linked to Islamic organizations, the PKB may have the best chance of surpassing a 10-percent threshold. Most PPP supporters may join the PKB. Another party is needed to represent the Islamic community. The PKS and PAN can merge to surpass the threshold. However, we know that merging these two parties will be difficult.
Thus far, we have yet to see two parties willingly merge with each other, mainly because it is difficult to reach an agreement among the parties’ elites.
In the 1955 election, 43 percent of voters chose Islamic parties. In 2019, it was only 30 percent. Research is required to find out whether this decline in support is ideological, due to the lack of strong figures acceptable by all stakeholders or due to the negative behavior displayed by party figures and lawmakers.
Figures in Islamic parties must find a solution to this problem. If neglected, Islamic parties will face huge challenges in the future.
In the future, two types of Islamic parties will still be required: those strongly linked to Islamic organizations and those strongly linked to supporters of political Islam. Islamic parties will absorb and fight for the aspirations of the Islamic community constitutionally. Without this channel of aspiration, there are concerns that supporters of political Islam may voice their aspirations through unconstitutional means.
Salahuddin Wahid, Leader of Tebuireng Islamic Boarding School