Population Challenges
The General Elections Commission (KPU) has officially declared Joko “Jokowi” Widodo-Ma\'ruf Amin as elected president and vice president. Now is the time to draw up the next step, finalizing the draft of the National Mid-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) for the 2020-2024 term for the second period of President Jokowi\'s leadership.
During the 2020-2024 term, Indonesia will be in a golden period. The dependency ratio will reach the lowest point in history, which might never be repeated again. In the span of five years, Indonesia will be at the peak of the bonus demographic period, often referred to with the term the window of opportunity.
At that time, every 100 people of productive age support 45 people of non-productive age. To enable us to transform the demographic bonus into an economic bonus, development must absolutely be based on an analysis of the population. This article outlines the challenges and opportunities to be faced by the Jokowi-Amin government from a population perspective in relation to regional development.
Number and distribution of population
Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) on Indonesia\'s population projection for 2010-2035, at the beginning of the Jokowi-Kalla administration, Indonesia\'s population was 252 million (2014) and is projected to continue to grow to 282 million by the end of Jokowi-Amin\'s administration (2024). Within 10 years the population will have grown by around 30 million people, which has implications for additional public service needs.
During the 2014-2024 period, the largest contribution to the population will be from West Java with more than 6.2 million, followed by Banten with 2.3 million. When the two provinces are combined, they account for almost a third of Indonesia\'s population growth. The impact is that there is large population pressures in the Banten and West Java regions as a buffer for the capital city of Jakarta. It is no exaggeration if President Jokowi plans to move the capital city outside of Java.
Population distribution among the islands has not changed much. The population living in Java and Bali has declined slightly, from 58.57 percent to 57.44 percent, while Sumatra and Kalimantan experienced a slight increase in the proportion of the population. The percentage of the population on the island of Sumatra rose from 21.58 percent to 22.05 percent. The proportion of the population of Kalimantan slightly increased from 5.97 percent to 6.32 percent.
To improve the development gap, a more even distribution of the population is needed. In the regional economy it is explained with the possibility of a phenomenon of people follow firm (PFF) or firm follow people (FFP). In the case of the PFF, people choose the location of residence by following the concentration of economic activity. Its assumption is, if we spread sugar, then ants will come over.
However, in the FFP phenomenon, it is precisely economic activity that follows where the population is concentrated. Investment selects areas that are densely populated. Does Indonesia tend to experience the phenomenon of PFF or FFP?
The policy of moving the capital city can be an alternative, reducing the burden of population concentration in the western part of Java and encouraging a more even distribution of the population.
By observing the population distribution of Indonesia over the last 50 years, FFP is more dominant. If we allow the market mechanism to work by itself, economic activity will continue to choose locations with large population concentration. The development gap among regions is getting bigger. The policy of moving the capital city can be an alternative, reducing the burden of population concentration in the western part of Java and encouraging a more even distribution of the population.
Changes in population composition
From BPS data for the 2010-2035 population projection from the 2010 Population Census database, the number of people aged under five will drop from around 24.0 million people (2014) to 22.8 million (2024). The policy of early childhood education (PAUD) should focus on improving the quality of existing PAUD and not just adding new ones. The number of school-age population (7-18 years) will slightly increase from 31.5 million children (2014) to 32.5 million children (2024).
The population surge will occur in the elderly group. People over the age of 60 years (including the young elderly group) will increase dramatically from 20.8 million people (2014) to 32.3 million (2024). Jokowi-Amin\'s development policy needs to consider the needs of the elderly. In order to be able to support productive elderly people, it needs an investment strategy policy for elderly workers so as to reduce their dependence on groups of a productive age.
In 2020, almost 57 percent of Indonesia\'s population will live in urban areas, leaving 43 percent of the population in rural areas. By 2025, the number is projected to continue to rise, 60 percent of Indonesia\'s population will live in cities. There are three sources of urban population growth, namely migration of villagers to cities, high growth rate of the natural population (births minus deaths) in urban areas, and changes in the status of rural areas to urban areas.
However, it needs to be understood that the percentage of urban population is a projected number which has not taken into account the impact of village development policies. Over the past five years, the government has distributed more than Rp 257 trillion in village funds to the villages. Not to mention the allocation of village funds with a minimum amount of 10 percent of the funds transferred from the central government to the regions with an accumulation of more than Rp 176 trillion. At least Rp 433 trillion of money flowed to the villages during 2015-2019. Village economic activities continue to expand.
Reverse migration from cities to villages
The future of Indonesia\'s villages will be those that are able to provide and support the quality of Indonesian human life at least as well as the quality of life in the cities, without losing the characteristics of the agricultural-based villages. Villagers in the future must be able to enjoy education of the same quality as education in the cities. Health services in the villages will need to be as good as in the cities. Opportunities to get decent jobs in the villages will need to be the same as in the cities, and so on.
Conversely, massive development in the villages will have an impact on the improvement of the quality of life of rural residents.
Village development can be said to be successful, if among other things, there is a decline in the rate of urbanization. If the 2020 Population Census results in less than the percentage of urban population of 57 percent, it indicates that the success of village development in resisting the pace of urbanization will be lower than projected. Greater urban population burdens have implications for decreasing the carrying capacity of the urban environment. Without adequate anticipation, the quality of life of urban residents will decline. Conversely, massive development in the villages will have an impact on the improvement of the quality of life of rural residents.
As a result, it is possible for the next five years of Jokowi-Amin\'s government to have a return of migration from cities to villages. We need to anticipate this. Anticipation of falling availability of workers in urban areas. The increasing need for public services in rural areas has to be anticipated.
Infrastructure which is being built from village funds has succeeded in opening isolation in many villages. However, villages do not have sufficient economies of scale to develop themselves. In the future, we need to encourage the development of rural areas, covering several villages in one region that have the same typology. In the 2015-2019 RPJMN, the target of rural area development includes 60 national priority rural areas (KPPN), involving 689 villages. Compared to 74,954 existing villages, of course 689 KPPN villages are still too few. In Jokowi\'s second period, KPPN\'s development policy needs to reach more rural areas. The goal is to create a larger economy of scale so that villages develop in a wider region and are able to accommodate the backflow of migration.
The achievements in village development during the first period of Jokowi\'s administration should be appreciated. However, we must anticipate the possibility of a surge in public service needs in the villages. Rising demand is caused by the welfare of villagers increases and the possibility of backflow of urban migration to villages. By anticipating it with appropriate policies, villages can prevent the loss of their productive age population and will be able to develop their economic potential independently.
Sonny Harry B Harmadi, Deputy for Community, Village and Regional Empowerment Coordination at the Coordinating Human Development and Culture Ministry; Chairman of the Indonesian Population Coalition