Various complex problems the nation faces recently mark the start of his second term.
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The high level of public appreciation for President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s first term will not necessarily guarantee smooth sailing in state governance moving forward. Various complex problems the nation faces recently mark the start of his second term.
Ahead of the end of the President’s first term, he is facing an increasing number of demands related to various national issues. In politics, for instance, as efforts are underway to heal political divisions following the 2019 elections, other seeds of conflict emerge that lead to violence. Riots in several places in Papua, protests over state laws and the unending threat of radicalism put the administration’s existence at stake.
Economic issues are similarly grave. The government’s efforts to create economic stability, spur growth and develop infrastructure – the administration’s trademark program – are being tested by increasingly unfriendly global economic conditions.
Amid all of these problems, a majority of the public appreciates Jokowi for his achievements. It can even be said that the last five years of state administration has been successful in maintaining political harmony between the public and the state power in the President’s hands. In carrying out state governance, thus far he has been able control the waves and surf smoothly through various national issues.
The results of this public opinion survey reaffirm this. There are at least two conclusions. First is that Jokowi is able to maintain positive public sentiment over his image and his administration’s performance. In terms of public satisfaction, at the start of his administration, no less than 65.1 percent of respondents said that they were “satisfied”. Currently, at the end of his first term, a majority of respondents (58.1 percent) still voice their satisfaction.
The President’s image has also been positive. At the start of his first term, 89.9 percent of respondents said that he had a “good” image. In this survey, 73.3 percent of respondents still see him as “good”. Despite the decrease, the percentage remains high.
Second, even as the President’s image and performance remain positive, the latest survey also shows decreasing public appreciation over both aspects. This has been consistent in the last 18 months. In April 2015, there was a surge in the public appreciation level (72.2 percent), but it has gone downhill since then. This merits a deeper analysis as, prior to April 2015, drops in public appreciation for the government’s performance had always been followed by increased satisfaction levels.
The survey sends out a message that appreciation remains on the one hand, even if satisfaction levels dwindle on the other hand. This is a good message for the President at the start of his second term. Reflecting on what is happening globally, there are stories of state leaders being deemed successes or failures when facing the “trial” of public opinion.
Two United States presidents, Ronald Reagan (1981 to 1989) and Bill Clinton (1993 to 2001), for instance, are remembered for turning economic slumps into glory in their respective presidencies. Both were appreciated by only a third of the American public in the middle of their presidency. However, they successfully closed their respective second terms by gaining approval from two-thirds of the American public.
A contrasting picture can be gained from the presidency of the Philippines’ Corazon Aquino (1986 to 1992). At the start of her presidency, the leader who gained her position through “people power” was appreciated by almost three-quarters of her people – the highest level of approval in the history of public opinion surveys in the Philippines. However, sustained economic problems and political pressures continued to erode her government’s popularity. Due to the astronomical public expectations, Aquino had a low level of approval at the end of her presidency.
These also happened frequently in our country. Presidents Abdurrahman Wahid (1999 to 2001) and Megawati Soekarnoputri (2001 to 2004) enjoyed high levels of popularity and public appreciation at the start of their respective presidencies, only to face widespread public dissatisfaction at the end of their respective rules. Despite president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s (2004 to 2014) relatively smooth sailing across two terms, there are those who look down upon his presidency.
This is why President Jokowi’s ability to control the waves through his first term will not automatically be a guarantee of success in his second one. Nevertheless, at the very least, his skills in maintaining public support in the past five years can be strong political and social capital in sailing through his second term. (BESTIAN NAINGGOLAN/KOMPAS R&D)