he Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) introduced the concept of “tipping points” two decades ago.
By
·3 minutes read
Global Systems Institute director Timothy M. Lenton of the UK’s University of Exeter and his team offers evidence of the likelihood of exceeding these tipping points of global warming in the 27 November 2019 edition of the Nature journal. Of the 15 important points in the planet\'s climate system, nine are in critical condition, including the permafrost, the Amazon rainforest, the Greenland ice sheet, Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
"The stability and resilience of our planet are in danger. We must adapt to some changes that cannot be avoided anymore," Lenton said Friday (29/11/2019).
The global average temperature in 2018 is 1 degree Celsius hotter than in the 1900s and is expected to increase further due to the accumulation of emissions released in the past and the rising levels of greenhouse gases. Exceeding the critical point will accelerate global warming.
For example, Lenton said that the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica “may have passed a tipping point”, marked by the shrinking coastline where the ice, ocean and bedrock meet. “When this sector collapses, it could destabilize the remaining West Antarctic ice sheet”, leading to a 3-meter rise in sea level.
"A model shows that the Greenland ice sheet could be destroyed by an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030. Sea-level rise is inevitable and we must seriously think about relocating activities on the coast," he said.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) introduced the concept of “tipping points” two decades ago. The two latest IPCC Special Reports say that these tipping points could be exceeded with a temperature rise of between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius.
According to the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Johan Rockstrom, who was involved in the study, the warming increase of 2 degrees Celsius was not only a political target, but also the planet\'s limit. If we exceed it, the Earth risks increasingly high warming.
Important moment
Climate researcher Siswanto of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency said on Sunday (1/12) that the 2019 UN Convention on Climate Change (COP25) in Madrid was an important occasion to renew countries’ commitment to reducing global carbon emissions, because the commitments made at the 2015 COP in Paris end next year.
"COP25 is expected to generate an agreement to stop forest degradation and restore forest areas and protect marine ecosystems," he said.
The present climate parameters indicate that a crisis has occurred and that it could trigger a hydrometeorological disaster, including in Indonesia. The World Meteorological Organization says that 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 were the four warmest years on record. The current rise in temperature in Indonesia is higher than the global average. (AFP/AIK)