Predictions that the transmission of the new coronavirus that caused COVID-19 will move outside the capital must be taken seriously, especially ahead of the Islamic holiday of Idul Fitri.
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It is highly important to anticipate Jakarta-based workers traveling back to their hometowns during the holiday, a tradition locally known as mudik. As of now, Jakarta remains the region with the highest number of people with COVID-19. The virus has spread to all corners of the capital.
After the announcement of the first two positive cases on 2 March 2020, Indonesia currently has 1,046 positive cases, 87 fatalities and 46 recoveries. With the rate COVID-19 is transmitting at the moment, Indonesia will have 71,000 cases in late April (Kompas, 27/3/2020). If the transmission rate goes up, the number of cases will also rise.
The government’s policies of social distancing, avoiding crowds and working from home have resulted in disruptions to daily activities. Tourism workers, including at restaurants, recreational facilities, shops, factories and ride-hailing services are traveling back to their hometowns ahead of time. Hometowns offer a safety net when cities can no longer provide income.
This situation is foreseeable. Despite the lack of a total isolation policy from local or central governments, the impact is immediately felt.
The waves of casual workers traveling from big cities to small towns will continue. What the government must seriously anticipate is the mudik tradition on Idul Fitri.
Thus far, local and central governments have merely urged locals not to travel to their hometowns. The concern that travelers may spread the virus to their parents and other relatives back home is serious.
The virus first spread from Wuhan to almost all provinces in China when people traveled back to their hometowns during the Chinese New Year and Spring Festival. The spread in Italy was similar. Young people from big cities traveled back to their hometowns and spread the virus to their elderly parents and relatives.
We still have time to urge all city-based workers not to travel to their hometowns. The government can take various steps, such as limiting intercity public transportation services.
The information must be clear, simple and disseminated to the right targets. The mudik travel waves ahead of time was also caused by rumors that the government would issue a travel ban during Idul Fitri. Local administrations have also announced local lockdown without fully understanding the consequence of such a total isolation.
In an emergency, prudent decision must be made swiftly and informed properly to the public. A mudik travel ban will be the right decision to make, considering the limited capacity of healthcare facilities in regions outside Jakarta.
The government must also distribute direct cash assistance immediately for informal and MSME workers in cities. Without help, nothing will hold them back from traveling to their hometowns.