Avoid the Lockdown

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Clowns resemble coronavirus disease (Covid-19) tauke a walk around in the socialization of Operation Safety 2020 by the Jakarta Metropolitan Police in the Gelora Bung Karno area, Jakarta, Monday (6/4/2020).

In line with the rising number of people who have been exposed and died from COVID-19 in a number of provinces, there has been pressure from a number of circles for President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to put the country on lockdown. A number of regional heads also asked the President to allow them to carry out regional quarantines to break the chain of transmission of COVID-19.

At first glance, the pressure is good. However, when it is further examined, the persistence seems not to be based on the results of a careful analysis of all aspects, which are directly and indirectly related to a lockdown or quarantine. Therefore, it would be very highly risky if President Jokowi bows the pressure.

Why? Because, in conducting a state lockdown or quarantine of an area, consideration of the aspect of handling COVID-19 with the aspect of regional economic capacity and aspect of humanity must be put in one breath. Without careful calculation of all aspects, lockdown or quarantine of the area will only cause many disadvantages compared to the benefits.

Also read : ‘Mudik’ Amid Covid-19 Outbreak

Lockdown boomerang

The insistence of a number of parties for the President to immediately conduct a state lockdown, as has been done by a number of countries, apparently due to panic and irrational imitative behavior. Why?

Because, in term of state interests, President Jokowi cannot possibly impose a lockdown because the consequences and economic, social and political risks, as well as its security are very large. From the financial side [State Budget (APBN)], the central government is unable to meet the needs of people\'s lives during the lockdown. Economically, Indonesia also cannot be independent during the lockdown because the needs for household and business consumption as well as government spending are highly dependent on imports from other countries which are also being affected by Covid-19.

Moreover, lockdown actually becomes boomerang due to its high failure rate. A number of countries that have imposed lockdowns have experienced serious failures. For example, after imposing a lockdown on Monday (9/3/2020), deaths due to Covid-19 in Italy even jumped dramatically from 463 people to 11,591 people, Monday (30/3/2020). As of April 4, 14,681 people died in Italy.

Also read : Pandemic, Recession, and Mitigation

Kompas

A man wearing protective gear, working for environmental services company AMSA, sprays disinfectant on Piazza Duomo in Milan, on March 31, 2020 during the country\'s lockdown aimed at curbing the spread of the COVID-19 infection, caused by the novel coronavirus.

In Spain, which began the lockdown on 12 March 2020, deaths from Covid-19 jumped from 831 to 7,340 people on Tuesday (31/3/2020), and as of April 4 it rose to 11,198 people. Other European countries that do lockdowns, such as France and Britain, have the same fate.

Meanwhile, the partial lockdown imposed by the United States on a number of states also fared worse. The number of people exposed to Covid-19 was 163,807 as of the end of March and 277,522 people as of 4 April, the highest in the world. The number of deaths due to Covid-19 jumped dramatically from 453 people (19/3/2020) to 2,948 people as of 31 March and 7,403 people as of 4 April. Realizing the failure, President Trump on Saturday (28/3/2020) canceled the lockdown of New York City and a number of US states.

Also read : Getting Through COVID-19 Pandemic

India\'s fate is more serious. Since the first day of lockdown (24/3/2020), nationwide chaos has occurred. The Indian government was overwhelmed by the consequences and risks of lockdown. Observing the failure of a number of countries, President Jokowi\'s decision not to apply lockdown, but to take other, more humane (soft) methods, is appropriate and should be appreciated. The result of my study also shows a trend of increasing percentage of the number of people exposed to Covid-19 has declined since the third week until the end of March 2020. The trend has decreased from the range of 20-36 percent (17-21 March) to the range of 10-18.3 percent (22-30 March). On 28-30 March 2020, the decline had even reached the range of 10-12 percent. This shows that the power of Covid-19 has diminished.

The survival of the majority of the population will be greatly disrupted if quarantine is carried out.

Risk of the quarantine

The insistence of a number of regional heads that President Jokowi allow them to do the quarantine on their territories also seems to be inaccurate. The reason is because the quarantine of the region has great potential to cause various serious problems for the wider community and burdens the central government compared to its effectiveness in breaking the chain of the spread of Covid-19. Why?

First, from the economic structure of the people, the majority of the livelihoods of the population from the areas that request quarantine are highly dependent on the informal sectors so that the survival of the majority of the population will be greatly disrupted if quarantine is carried out.

The regional governments will also not be able to meet the living needs of their people. This is because the majority of provinces and regencies/cities in the country do not have adequate regional financial capacity. They are still very dependent on the allocation of funds from the central government. Without financial support from the central government, no regions will be able to do the quarantine on their areas independently for more than one week.

Second, from the economic structure of the provinces or regencies/cities that request quarantine, no one can be independent. Even, more than 90 percent of local governments in Indonesia cannot be independent. Everything is very dependent on the "generosity" of the central government and the support of economic relations from other regions. On the demand side, the proportion of demand for household consumption dominates a region\'s economy. Imports from other countries and also from other regions to meet household consumption needs are very large and far greater than exports. Imports are also used for government expenditure and industrial needs in producing goods/services for the community.

Therefore, if quarantines is carried out in an area, the supply of goods/services for the needs of the community from other regions will be disrupted. Likewise, the economic activities of the business world in producing goods needed by the wider community will be paralyzed. Other areas in the surroundings will not necessarily also supply goods/services because they also need them. As a result, there will be a very limited availability of goods needed by the community. Prices of basic necessities will skyrocket. The risks, such as hunger, commotion, chaos, and the weakening of community resilience so that they are vulnerable to Covid-19 and various other diseases, will even be large.

Third, on the supply side, the economic structure of the majority of regions in the country is fragile. The majority of big cities are also not independent. To meet the needs of their communities, they are very dependent on supplies from other regions. Jakarta, for example. Even though the budget is very large (Rp 87.95 trillion), the contribution of the agricultural sector is only 0.08 percent. Jakarta\'s dependence on West Java, Banten, Central Java, and other regions, as well as imports from other countries, is very high. If the Jakarta governor is determined to do the quarantine, while support from the central government and a number of provinces in Java is lacking, the quarantine in Jakarta will only take place in a few days. The worst risk is mass looting and riots because people are desperate and frantic as their survival is under threat.

KOMPAS/PRIYOMBODO (PRI) 30-03-2020

A man closes a gate with a handmade quarantine banner that restricts entry to ojol (motorcycle taxi and delivery drivers), couriers, buskers and traders to Larangan on Monday (30/3/2020) in Tangerang municipality, Banten. Residential areas have started taking independent measures in an attempt to curb the spread of Covid-19 by restricting entry to all but residents.

Avoid the quarantine

From the above description, both lockdown and regional quarantine are not the best solution to prevent and minimize the negative effects of Covid-19. These options have the potential to cause various consequences, complications of the problem, and serious risks. In addition to causing economic paralysis and very expensive costs, these two options also have the potential to increase Covid-19\'s exposure and killing power and community radicalism which is very detrimental to the wider community, regions and country.

Related to that risk, Professor Machael Levitt (2013 Nobel laureate in biophysics) states, there is no need to do the lockdown by a number of countries because it will only close the wheels the economy and in turn will give birth to health chaos itself. This is due to the high number of people who lost their jobs and sources of income for life.

Levitt\'s statement is correct. After the lockdown, the number of people who were exposed to and died from Covid-19 in Italy, Spain, France, Britain, the US and others even rose dramatically. Conversely, a number of countries that did not impose the lockdown even succeeded in suppressing the rate of Covid-19 exposure.

Therefore, the best solution to prevent the spread of Covid-19 for all regional heads and all parties is to  seriously follow up on the Presidential Instruction on Large-Scale Social Restriction and Civil Emergency (PSBB-DS). The implementation of the instruction will not use up very large funds from the State Budget and Regional Budgets. Nor will it cause panic in the wider community. The potential for social radicalism is also small. In short, the costs and risks are far less than the area quarantine.

Kompas

Andreas Lako

The condition is that the implementation should not be hasty, but carefully prepared and coordinated with the central government and the surrounding local governments. The chief commander in each province is the governor so that the regents/mayors must not act as they wish in implementing the PSBB-DS because it will cause the general public to be in confusion and panic.

Andreas Lako, Professor at the School of Economy and Business; head of Doctoral Program of Environmental Sciences, Soegijapranata Catholic University, Semarang.