Contest of Loyalty and Militancy

KOMPAS/DANU KUSWORO

Staffers man the "war room" of the Kompas R&D Quick Count division on Wednesday (4/17/2019) at the Kompas editorial offices in Jakarta.

The ability to restore militancy and loyalty is the key for how the Joko Widodo and Ma\'ruf Amin ticket dominated Kompas’ quick count and post-election survey for the 2019 presidential election. This situation occurred after Kompas’ pre-election survey earlier showed a trend of growing militancy among the supporters of Prabowo Subianto and Sandiaga Uno, increasing their electability.

The results of Kompas’ pre-election survey conducted from the end of February to early March 2019 showed Jokowi and Amin’s electability rate was 49.2 percent, down from 52.6 percent in October 2018. Conversely, Prabowo and Sandi’s electability rate rose from 32.7 percent in October 2018 to 37.4 percent at the end of February and in early March 2019. This happened because of the strong militancy and solidity of Prabowo and Sandi’s supporters.

Such a situation seemed to “arouse” the militancy in the Jokowi-Amin camp. In the post-election survey, this was shown in the level of support among the political parties supporting the pair, in the time of voting and in the cohesiveness of votes within families.

Dozens of visitors and invited guests follow live news broadcasts on the 2019 election on Wednesday (4/17/2019) using the facilities provided by the Kompas R&D Quick Count division at the Kompas editorial offices in Jakarta.Regarding support for political parties, the cohesiveness of Jokowi-Amin voters was able to outperform that of Prabowo-Sandi voters. For example, 85.9 percent of PDI-P voters chose Jokowi. This is higher than the 79.5 percent of Gerindra voters who chose Prabowo. The majority of people who voted for political parties supporting Jokowi, such as the National Awakening Party, the Golkar Party, the Development Unity Party, the Hanura Party and the Nasdem Party, also voted for Jokowi.

Those who voted for the political parties supporting Prabowo, including the Prosperous Justice Party, the National Mandate Party, the Democratic Party and a number of small and new parties, also showed a strong tendency to choose Prabowo.

KOMPAS/LASTI KURNIA

Local residents hold up their inked pinkies after exercising their voting rights on Wednesday (4/17/2019) at polling station (TPS) 073 in Community Unit RW 04, Joglo subdistrict, Kembangan, Jakarta. Young and old turned up at the TPS, keen to cast their ballots in the 2019 election.

Loyalty was also shown at the time of voting. The majority of Jokowi’s voters went a bit earlier to vote for their preferred presidential candidate. The loyalty was even seen at the family level, which again shows that Jokowi’s voters tended to be a little more solid in the presidential election. The percentage of Jokowi voters in families that voted en masse for Jokowi was 66.2, while for Prabowo the figure was only 61.5. (TOTO SURYANINGTYAS/ Litbang Kompas)

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

-Local residents cast their votes at polling booths while others await their turn on Wednesday (4/17/2019) at polling station (TPS) 80 in Pondok Kelapa, Duren Sawit, East Jakarta.