Nine Political Parties to Win House Seats

KOMPAS/WAWAN H PRABOWO

Flags of political parties participating in the 2019 simultaneous elections decorate an elevated road on Jl. Kramat Raya, Senen, Central Jakarta, Tuesday (5/3/2019). In this political year, almost no public spaces are free from stickers, posters, banners, billboards, and political party flags, competing in the 2019 election.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The 2019 election may result in nine political parties winning seats at the House of Representatives for the 2019 to 2024 period. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is set to become the first party in the Reform era to win two consecutive legislative elections, namely in 2014 and 2019.

This is borne out in the quick counts of legislative elections conducted by Kompas R&D and several other agencies on Wednesday. The nine parties shown in quick counts to be winning House seats after securing more than 4 percent of the votes are similar to the result of a Kompas R&D poll in February and March.

At the time, the poll result showed that four parties had electability that was much higher than the parliamentary threshold, namely the PDI-P, Gerindra Party, Golkar Party and National Awakening Party (PKB). Meanwhile, the five other parties whose electability was also higher than the parliamentary threshold were the Democratic Party, Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), National Mandate Party (PAN), NasDem and the United Development Party (PPP) (Kompas, 21/3/2019).

Coat-tail effect

The quick count results also showed that the PDI-P won the most votes, followed by Gerindra. This indicates that the coat-tail effect, which shows a positive relationship between the electoral powers of the presidential or vice-presidential candidates with supporting political parties, is in full display.

PDI-P executive Aria Bima said in Jakarta on Wednesday that it enjoyed an increasingly significant coat-tail effect from President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo as its legislative candidates actively campaigned for the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin pair.

Other than the PDI-P, Gerindra also enjoyed a coat-tail effect from presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto. “We are grateful for the quick count. Pak Prabowo running for the presidency clearly benefited us,” Gerindra’s deputy secretary-general, Andre Rosiade, said.

Other than the two parties where the presidential candidates come from, the PKB is also enjoying a coat-tail effect. Its secretary-general, Lukman Edy, said the party’s achievement in this year’s election was thanks to the presence of Ma’ruf, a senior cleric at the nation’s largest Muslim mass organization Nahdlatul Ulama, as vice-presidential candidate.

Dynamic

Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) researcher Arya Fernandes said, despite the PDI-P’s clear dominance, the distribution of votes among other parties were relatively equal.

The close gap between votes gained by these parties, Arya said, might result in a more dynamic and tight contestation as well as decision-making at the House.

“There is no truly significant power at the House other than the PDI-P. Political parties have relatively equal bargaining positions so that policy making at the House will be more dynamic,” he added. (AGE/SAN)