JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The quick-count results for the 2019 elections indicate the coattail effect or the positive relationships between the electoral power of the presidential candidates or vice presidential candidates and their supporting political parties is not very visible. The votes were mostly determined by internal political parties.
From the results of the Kompas R&D quick count for the election of candidates for the House of Representatives, with a sample of 93.9 percent, nine political parties were predicted to be able to send their representatives to the House because their nationally legitimate votes were above the legislative threshold of 4 percent. However, the results of this quick count are not yet official. The recapitulation of votes for the 2019 elections at the national level will be determined by the General Elections Commission (KPU) on May 22, 2019.
Quick-count data shows that the votes of five of the 10 political parties that now have seats in the House are expected to increase from the 2014 elections. The five political parties are the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Gerindra Party, National Awakening Party (PKB), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the NasDem Party.
The PDI-P and Gerindra are often referred to as having a coattail effect because the two political parties are associated with two presidential candidates, namely the PDI-P with Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Gerindra with Prabowo Subianto. The PKB is also often associated with the coattail effect because the political parties are often associated with vice-presidential candidate Ma’ruf Amin.
The achievements of political parties in the 2019 elections were largely determined by the work of political parties and legislative candidates. The coattail effect was not significantly visible.
However, from the quick-count results, the increase in the PDI-P, Gerindra and PKB votes has the potential to still be under the increase in PKS and NasDem Party votes. In fact, the two political parties did not have cadres who contested in the presidential election.
Not significant
PDI-P deputy secretary-general Eriko Sotarduga said the simultaneous elections had forced political parties to divide their focus between gaining votes for themselves in the legislative elections and supporting specific presidential candidates.
The PDI-P, he said, had not faced many difficulties because presidential candidate Jokowi was a PDI-P member. Even though the PDI-P had received an electoral impact from Jokowi\'s nomination, Eriko assessed that the coattail effect was actually not significant in boosting PDI-P votes.
"The coattail effect did exist, but they could not be said to be significant," Eriko said.
Eriko said, the PDI-P and Jokowi were complementary to each other. In some regions of the PDI-P base, such as Central Java, Bali and East Nusa Tenggara, Jokowi\'s votes based on quick counts was very high.
With regard to this, in addition to the symbiosis of mutualism between the PDI-P and Jokowi\'s figure, according to Eriko, the factor that determined the victory of the PDI-P was the professionalism of the PDI-P, which has been a supporting party for the government for five years. The machinery of the party through the legislative candidates and party structures that existed in the villages was also considered effective in moving at the grassroots.
Deputy chairman of the PKS election campaign team, Al Muzzammil Yusuf, said the increase in his party\'s votes in the elections this time was mainly due to the militancy of members and legislative candidates from the structure at the central level to the village level. "The support of the Indonesian people, especially clerics, habaib, and Islamic organizations, was also a sound contributor to the PKS," he said.
Moreover, this is inseparable from the consistency of the PKS as an opposition party that supports Prabowo-Sandiaga in the presidential election. On the other hand, he said, the PKS offered political ideas that took side to the middle class.
Gerindra deputy chairman Ferry Juliantono said the increase in his party\'s votes was due to Gerindra\'s consistency in political attitudes as opposition. Gerindra’s promise to improve people\'s welfare, for example, was positively received by the community.
"As an opposition party, Gerindra becomes a new hope for the community, one of which is seen from the huge support from millennial voters. The character of Pak Prabowo, who is also a presidential candidate, also cannot be separated as a factor in increasing our votes," Ferry said.
Lessons
In relation to this, program director at Saiful Mujani Research Consulting Research Institute Sirojudin Abbas assessed that the increase in NasDem and PKS votes was mainly determined by the political party machine and network at the grassroots level, as well as regeneration and recruitment strategies to prepare candidates for vote getters in each electoral district.
The 2019 election, Sirojudin said further, provided a lesson that to face simultaneous elections, political parties need to be cleverer in adjusting their strategies. Simultaneous election schemes cannot involve the same strategies as in separate elections. The fiercer contestation in legislative elections requires parties to be aggressive.
Political parties also can no longer work just ahead of the election. Political parties must be consistent in strengthening their network and support base at the grassroots level. Political parties also need to strengthen their image and identity based on a particular platform, ideology or program. (AGE/SAN)